Aberdeen South

[Clark]

The Aberdeen South constituency is a mainly affluent constituency covering the whole of the south side of the city on both sides of the River Dee and extends westwards along the Dee valley to include the suburbs of Cults, Bieldside, Miltimber and Peterculter. 
Throughout its history, it has elected mainly Unionist / Conservative MP's to parliament. However, in the 1966 election, a Labour MP topped the poll - a young man by the name of Donald Dewar. Subsequently failing to hold the seat at the next election to the Tory's Iain Sproat, Dewar would go on to become one of Scotland's most iconic politicians and the first First Minister of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 before his untimely death a year later. 
The seat continued to elect Conservatives up until 1997 with the exception of 1987 when Labour's Frank Doran took the seat. But during the Labour landslide of 1997, parliament's first ever wheelchair bound member, Anne Begg triumphed in what was touted as a 3 way marginal  with the popular local Lib Dem, Nicol Stephen coming into contention.
Begg held the seat in 2001 with an increased vote and eventually amassed 18 years in the House of Commons before succumbing to the SNP juggernaut in 2015.
The Tories won the seat back in 2017 with an excellent performance from Ross Thomson but his 2 years as an MP was dogged, fairly or unfairly with controversy and he never stood for a 2nd term. The SNP duly won back the seat in 2019.

Traditionally, Labour's strongest areas within the seat were the council / ex council estate wards of Kincorth, Torry and Tullos in the far south of the city although these were previously in the old Kincardine & Deeside prior to 1997 and must have voted tactically to extent at the time. 'New Labour' would've have appealed to the lower middle class areas of Duthie and Ferryhill and contributed to the increase in Labour's share in 2001. 
The Tories fight back in the wealthy, middle class areas of Mannofield, Seafield, Queens Cross, Broomhill and Rubislaw which is where one of the largest man made holes in Europe is located where it is estimated over 6 million tonnes of granite was excavated over a 200 year period and where Aberdeen earns the name 'The Granite City'.
The Conservatives are also strong in the suburban / semi rural Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber but less so in the more mixed Peterculter which is easily the Lib Dems strongest part of the Lower Deeside ward.

For many years, the SNP had struggled to make an impact in this predominately unionist seat but even here, the SNP is now the dominant party as they are throughout the majority of Scotland now. Many of the ex Labour areas will now be strongly nationalist and even the wealthy areas will have decent SNP vote nowadays.

 Given it's history, it's hard to rule out any one of the 4 main parties winning here again although Labour were squeezed to a paltry 8% of the vote at the last election and will surely now be decades away from regaining it again.

[Deleted]

Donald Dewar did not win Aberdeen South in a by election - he defeated Lady Tweedsmuir in the 1966 General Election.

[aidanthomson]

Apr 9, 2020 17:42:31 GMT Clark said:

Traditionally, Labour's strongest areas within the seat were the council / ex council estate wards of Kincorth, Torry and Tullos in the far south of the city although these were previously in the old Kincardine & Deeside prior to 1997 and must have voted tactically to extent at the time.

Torry and Tullos were in Aberdeen South during 1983–97, so presumably still voted Labour during that time. Kincorth was in Kincardine & Deeside, as were Garthdee and Ruthrieston (the Auchinyell electoral division of Grampian Regional Council), and there was certainly a lot of tactical voting for Stephen. The Lib Dems polled significantly better in local elections in Kincorth than in Torry as well, although Labour always won it comfortably, and also won Auchinyell in the last Grampian regional elections in 1994.

[Deleted]

Things really went South for the Tories here after 2017.

[Clark]

Apr 10, 2020 16:24:00 GMT aidanthomson said:

Apr 9, 2020 17:42:31 GMT Clark said:

Traditionally, Labour's strongest areas within the seat were the council / ex council estate wards of Kincorth, Torry and Tullos in the far south of the city although these were previously in the old Kincardine & Deeside prior to 1997 and must have voted tactically to extent at the time.

Torry and Tullos were in Aberdeen South during 1983–97, so presumably still voted Labour during that time. Kincorth was in Kincardine & Deeside, as were Garthdee and Ruthrieston (the Auchinyell electoral division of Grampian Regional Council), and there was certainly a lot of tactical voting for Stephen. The Lib Dems polled significantly better in local elections in Kincorth than in Torry as well, although Labour always won it comfortably, and also won Auchinyell in the last Grampian regional elections in 1994.

Thanks for clarifying that.

It really is ridiculous that those Aberdeen city areas were once in Kincardine & Deeside - talk about being out of place!

[Clark]

Sorry you are wrong on some these points - Culter is not a tory bit...it's strongly Lib Dem.

Kincorth and Garthdee are now 2 of the most affluent? They're working class neighbourhoods and far from affluent!

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 15.0% 450/650
Owner-occupied 61.9% 447/650
Private rented 19.3% 142/650
Social rented 16.7% 297/650
White 92.6% 381/650
Black 2.3% 163/650
Asian 3.8% 278/650
Managerial & professional 38.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.5%
Degree level 40.3% 48/650
No qualifications 17.0% 567/650
Students 11.5% 105/650


2019 General Election: Aberdeen South

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

SNP Stephen Flynn 20,388 44.7 +13.2
Conservative Douglas Lumsden 16,398 35.9 −6.2
Liberal Democrats Ian Yuill 5,018 11.0 +5.2
Labour Shona Simpson 3,834 8.4 −12.2

SNP Majority 3,990 8.8

Turnout 45,638 69.4 +0.9

SNP gain from Conservative Swing +9.7

[Pete Whitehead]

Surprisingly high black population there. Obviously Aberdeen is an international city based on its oil industry - I guess the major element there may be eg. Nigerians connected with that. But this strikes me as a new development here (and of course, the figures being almost ten years old now, it is not 'new' at all..)

[European Lefty]

Are there any black majority or black plurality constituencies?

[Robert Waller]

Don't think so - see this from the Almanac tables thread (maybe by now, as these are 2011 Census figures - Croydon North fairly close to plurality, 35.2% white then)

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS

.............. % ....... Result 2019

Camberwell and Peckham 37.4 Lab
Croydon North 31.5 Lab
Lewisham Deptford 28.9 Lab
Edmonton 27.3 Lab
Hackney South and Shoreditch 26.9 Lab
Tottenham 26.7 Lab
Lewisham East 25.8 Lab
Erith and Thamesmead 25.7 Lab
Brent Central 25.5 Lab
Dulwich and West Norwood 25.0 Lab
Vauxhall 24.7 Lab
Streatham 24.3 Lab
West Ham 23.1 Lab
Birmingham Ladywood 22.6 Lab
Lewisham West and Penge 22.4 Lab
Barking 20.2 Lab
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 20.1 Lab
Greenwich and Woolwich 20.1 Lab
Hackney N & Stoke Newington 19.6 Lab
Walthamstow 18.9 Lab

[bjornhattan]

Feb 1, 2021 11:30:59 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Surprisingly high black population there. Obviously Aberdeen is an international city based on its oil industry - I guess the major element there may be eg. Nigerians connected with that. But this strikes me as a new development here (and of course, the figures being almost ten years old now, it is not 'new' at all..)

Your intuition is right, the biggest element does seem to be Nigerian. The census says that in Torry/Ferryhill just over 3% of residents are black with 2.3% specifically born in Nigeria. Even higher figures can be found in George Street/Harbour (5.4% and 3.6% respectively), though that is in the North constituency.

[ntyuk1707]

When people think of Aberdeen South they generally think of it as an affluent area, however this constituency is perhaps one of the most socially divided in Scotland.

South of the River Dee from the City Centre is the highly deprived inner city area of Torry which stretches out towards the North Sea.

Just south-west of Torry, you also have the deprived inter-war estate of Kincorth, and connecting the two, the industrial areas of Tullos and Altens. Surrounding Robert Gordon University near the banks of the River Dee is another post-war council estate: Garthdee.

And Cove Bay, while having lower rates of social deprivation than the national average, is very much a mesh of social renters and home-owners, middle- and working-class commuters.

But in complete contrast to this, you have the western end of this constituency: covering Aberdeen City Centre's affluent West End, the mansions of Milltimber and some of Scotland's richest postcodes: the grand townhouses of Queens Cross, and the many luxurious bungalows and detached houses in between.

Lower Deeside ward, covering a chain of suburbs on the south-western periphery of Aberdeen, had the largest No vote in Scotland at the 2014 referendum approximately 80% No, and is one of Scotland's wealthiest wards. Equally, the Countesswells, Hazlehead & Queens Cross Ward had a roughly 77% No vote, and Airyhall, Broomhill & Garthdee had an approximate No vote of 70%.

In local government, the more affluent parts of Aberdeen South have a propensity of voting Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat, in contrast to a strong SNP vote in more deprived east of the seat.

The seat itself has flipped from Labour (2010) to SNP (2015) to Conservative (2017) to SNP (2019), with the Conservatives edging ever-closer in the overlapping Scottish Parliamentary seat of Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, coming just 4% out from winning the seat in 2021 on worse boundaries than in Westminster despite losing by 8.7% of the vote in the 2019 general election.

The current seat is certainly competitive for the Conservatives, but boundary changes here are set to benefit the SNP, adding more pro-independence deprived inner-city areas into the seat including the George Street and Harbour areas in the north-east of Aberdeen City centre.

The estimated No vote in 2014 here is 65% for the current seat and 63% for the newly-drawn seat.

This should not be ruled out as a marginal constituency for both the SNP and the Conservatives, and should be one to watch. It certainly has the potential of delivering shock results as it did when the Conservatives unexpectedly regained it back from Labour in 1992.

[rcronald]

Mar 30, 2023 23:40:08 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

When people think of Aberdeen South they generally think of it as an affluent area, however this constituency is perhaps one of the most socially divided in Scotland.

South of the River Dee from the City Centre is the highly deprived inner city area of Torry which stretches out towards the North Sea.

Just south-west of Torry, you also have the deprived inter-war estate of Kincorth, and connecting the two, the industrial areas of Tullos and Altens. Surrounding Robert Gordon University near the banks of the River Dee is another post-war council estate: Garthdee.

And Cove Bay, while having lower rates of social deprivation than the national average, is very much a mesh of social renters and home-owners, middle- and working-class commuters.

But in complete contrast to this, you have the western end of this constituency: covering Aberdeen City Centre's affluent West End, the mansions of Milltimber and some of Scotland's richest postcodes: the grand townhouses of Queens Cross, and the many luxurious bungalows and detached houses in between.

Lower Deeside ward, covering a chain of suburbs on the south-western periphery of Aberdeen, had the largest No vote in Scotland at the 2014 referendum approximately 80% No, and is one of Scotland's wealthiest wards. Equally, the Countesswells, Hazlehead & Queens Cross Ward had a roughly 77% No vote, and Airyhall, Broomhill & Garthdee had an approximate No vote of 70%.

In local government, the more affluent parts of Aberdeen South have a propensity of voting Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat, in contrast to a strong SNP vote in more deprived east of the seat.

The seat itself has flipped from Labour (2010) to SNP (2015) to Conservative (2017) to SNP (2019), with the Conservatives edging ever-closer in the overlapping Scottish Parliamentary seat of Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, coming just 4% out from winning the seat in 2021 on worse boundaries than in Westminster despite losing by 8.7% of the vote in the 2019 general election.

The current seat is certainly competitive for the Conservatives, but boundary changes here are set to benefit the SNP, adding more pro-independence deprived inner-city areas into the seat including the George Street and Harbour areas in the north-east of Aberdeen City centre.

The estimated No vote in 2014 here is 65% for the current seat and 63% for the newly-drawn seat.

This should not be ruled out as a marginal constituency for both the SNP and the Conservatives, and should be one to watch. It certainly has the potential of delivering shock results as it did when the Conservatives unexpectedly regained it back from Labour in 1992.

Surely the SNP majority here in 2019 was artificially high because of the Ross Thomson allegations?

[Clark]

Mar 31, 2023 5:06:19 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 30, 2023 23:40:08 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

When people think of Aberdeen South they generally think of it as an affluent area, however this constituency is perhaps one of the most socially divided in Scotland.

South of the River Dee from the City Centre is the highly deprived inner city area of Torry which stretches out towards the North Sea.

Just south-west of Torry, you also have the deprived inter-war estate of Kincorth, and connecting the two, the industrial areas of Tullos and Altens. Surrounding Robert Gordon University near the banks of the River Dee is another post-war council estate: Garthdee.

And Cove Bay, while having lower rates of social deprivation than the national average, is very much a mesh of social renters and home-owners, middle- and working-class commuters.

But in complete contrast to this, you have the western end of this constituency: covering Aberdeen City Centre's affluent West End, the mansions of Milltimber and some of Scotland's richest postcodes: the grand townhouses of Queens Cross, and the many luxurious bungalows and detached houses in between.

Lower Deeside ward, covering a chain of suburbs on the south-western periphery of Aberdeen, had the largest No vote in Scotland at the 2014 referendum approximately 80% No, and is one of Scotland's wealthiest wards. Equally, the Countesswells, Hazlehead & Queens Cross Ward had a roughly 77% No vote, and Airyhall, Broomhill & Garthdee had an approximate No vote of 70%.

In local government, the more affluent parts of Aberdeen South have a propensity of voting Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat, in contrast to a strong SNP vote in more deprived east of the seat.

The seat itself has flipped from Labour (2010) to SNP (2015) to Conservative (2017) to SNP (2019), with the Conservatives edging ever-closer in the overlapping Scottish Parliamentary seat of Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, coming just 4% out from winning the seat in 2021 on worse boundaries than in Westminster despite losing by 8.7% of the vote in the 2019 general election.

The current seat is certainly competitive for the Conservatives, but boundary changes here are set to benefit the SNP, adding more pro-independence deprived inner-city areas into the seat including the George Street and Harbour areas in the north-east of Aberdeen City centre.

The estimated No vote in 2014 here is 65% for the current seat and 63% for the newly-drawn seat.

This should not be ruled out as a marginal constituency for both the SNP and the Conservatives, and should be one to watch. It certainly has the potential of delivering shock results as it did when the Conservatives unexpectedly regained it back from Labour in 1992.

Surely the SNP majority here in 2019 was artificially high because of the Ross Thomson allegations?

 I don't think he stood for re-election but I don't think his allegations helped the Tories here. But I agree, I don't think the SNP will do this well in this seat again despite Stephen Flynn becoming Westminter leader

[ntyuk1707]

Mar 31, 2023 5:06:19 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 30, 2023 23:40:08 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

When people think of Aberdeen South they generally think of it as an affluent area, however this constituency is perhaps one of the most socially divided in Scotland.

South of the River Dee from the City Centre is the highly deprived inner city area of Torry which stretches out towards the North Sea.

Just south-west of Torry, you also have the deprived inter-war estate of Kincorth, and connecting the two, the industrial areas of Tullos and Altens. Surrounding Robert Gordon University near the banks of the River Dee is another post-war council estate: Garthdee.

And Cove Bay, while having lower rates of social deprivation than the national average, is very much a mesh of social renters and home-owners, middle- and working-class commuters.

But in complete contrast to this, you have the western end of this constituency: covering Aberdeen City Centre's affluent West End, the mansions of Milltimber and some of Scotland's richest postcodes: the grand townhouses of Queens Cross, and the many luxurious bungalows and detached houses in between.

Lower Deeside ward, covering a chain of suburbs on the south-western periphery of Aberdeen, had the largest No vote in Scotland at the 2014 referendum approximately 80% No, and is one of Scotland's wealthiest wards. Equally, the Countesswells, Hazlehead & Queens Cross Ward had a roughly 77% No vote, and Airyhall, Broomhill & Garthdee had an approximate No vote of 70%.

In local government, the more affluent parts of Aberdeen South have a propensity of voting Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat, in contrast to a strong SNP vote in more deprived east of the seat.

The seat itself has flipped from Labour (2010) to SNP (2015) to Conservative (2017) to SNP (2019), with the Conservatives edging ever-closer in the overlapping Scottish Parliamentary seat of Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, coming just 4% out from winning the seat in 2021 on worse boundaries than in Westminster despite losing by 8.7% of the vote in the 2019 general election.

The current seat is certainly competitive for the Conservatives, but boundary changes here are set to benefit the SNP, adding more pro-independence deprived inner-city areas into the seat including the George Street and Harbour areas in the north-east of Aberdeen City centre.

The estimated No vote in 2014 here is 65% for the current seat and 63% for the newly-drawn seat.

This should not be ruled out as a marginal constituency for both the SNP and the Conservatives, and should be one to watch. It certainly has the potential of delivering shock results as it did when the Conservatives unexpectedly regained it back from Labour in 1992.

Surely the SNP majority here in 2019 was artificially high because of the Ross Thomson allegations?

That may have played a role here, though I suspect similar to affluent suburban seats like East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South West where the Conservatives recovered in the 2021 Scottish election that Brexit was a factor in shoring up support for the SNP here in 2019.