Aberdeen South

[southpaw1]

The Aberdeen South constituency is a mainly affluent constituency covering the whole of the south side of the city on both sides of the River Dee and extends westwards along the Dee valley to include the suburbs of Cults, Bieldside, Miltimber and Peterculter. 
Throughout its history, it has elected mainly Unionist / Conservative MP's to parliament. However, in the 1966 election, a Labour MP topped the poll - a young man by the name of Donald Dewar. Subsequently failing to hold the seat at the next election to the Tory's Iain Sproat, Dewar would go on to become one of Scotland's most iconic politicians and the first First Minister of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 before his untimely death a year later. 
The seat continued to elect Conservatives up until 1997 with the exception of 1987 when Labour's Frank Doran took the seat. But during the Labour landslide of 1997, parliament's first ever wheelchair bound member, Anne Begg triumphed in what was touted as a 3 way marginal  with the popular local Lib Dem, Nicol Stephen coming into contention.
Begg held the seat in 2001 with an increased vote and eventually amassed 18 years in the House of Commons before succumbing to the SNP juggernaut in 2015.
The Tories won the seat back in 2017 with an excellent performance from Ross Thomson but his 2 years as an MP was dogged, fairly or unfairly with controversy and he never stood for a 2nd term. The SNP duly won back the seat in 2019.

Traditionally, Labour's strongest areas within the seat were the council / ex council estate wards of Kincorth, Torry and Tullos in the far south of the city although these were previously in the old Kincardine & Deeside prior to 1997 and must have voted tactically to extent at the time. 'New Labour' would've have appealed to the lower middle class areas of Duthie and Ferryhill and contributed to the increase in Labour's share in 2001. 
The Tories fight back in the wealthy, middle class areas of Mannofield, Seafield, Queens Cross, Broomhill and Rubislaw which is where one of the largest man made holes in Europe is located where it is estimated over 6 million tonnes of granite was excavated over a 200 year period and where Aberdeen earns the name 'The Granite City'.
The Conservatives are also strong in the suburban / semi rural Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber but less so in the more mixed Peterculter which is easily the Lib Dems strongest part of the Lower Deeside ward.

For many years, the SNP had struggled to make an impact in this predominately unionist seat but even here, the SNP is now the dominant party as they are throughout the majority of Scotland now. Many of the ex Labour areas will now be strongly nationalist and even the wealthy areas will have decent SNP vote nowadays.

 Given it's history, it's hard to rule out any one of the 4 main parties winning here again although Labour were squeezed to a paltry 8% of the vote at the last election and will surely now be decades away from regaining it again.

[Deleted]

Donald Dewar did not win Aberdeen South in a by election - he defeated Lady Tweedsmuir in the 1966 General Election.

[aidanthomson]

Apr 9, 2020 17:42:31 GMT southpaw1 said:

Traditionally, Labour's strongest areas within the seat were the council / ex council estate wards of Kincorth, Torry and Tullos in the far south of the city although these were previously in the old Kincardine & Deeside prior to 1997 and must have voted tactically to extent at the time.

Torry and Tullos were in Aberdeen South during 1983–97, so presumably still voted Labour during that time. Kincorth was in Kincardine & Deeside, as were Garthdee and Ruthrieston (the Auchinyell electoral division of Grampian Regional Council), and there was certainly a lot of tactical voting for Stephen. The Lib Dems polled significantly better in local elections in Kincorth than in Torry as well, although Labour always won it comfortably, and also won Auchinyell in the last Grampian regional elections in 1994.

[Deleted]

Things really went South for the Tories here after 2017.

[southpaw1]

Apr 10, 2020 16:24:00 GMT aidanthomson said:

Apr 9, 2020 17:42:31 GMT southpaw1 said:

Traditionally, Labour's strongest areas within the seat were the council / ex council estate wards of Kincorth, Torry and Tullos in the far south of the city although these were previously in the old Kincardine & Deeside prior to 1997 and must have voted tactically to extent at the time.

Torry and Tullos were in Aberdeen South during 1983–97, so presumably still voted Labour during that time. Kincorth was in Kincardine & Deeside, as were Garthdee and Ruthrieston (the Auchinyell electoral division of Grampian Regional Council), and there was certainly a lot of tactical voting for Stephen. The Lib Dems polled significantly better in local elections in Kincorth than in Torry as well, although Labour always won it comfortably, and also won Auchinyell in the last Grampian regional elections in 1994.

Thanks for clarifying that.

It really is ridiculous that those Aberdeen city areas were once in Kincardine & Deeside - talk about being out of place!

[boogieeck]

Sorry, I have to pick more faults. The constituency covers both sides of the River Dee for about three miles max, then the north side only for a further 8 or so. The important point is that it wholly within the City of Aberdeen local authority. The boundary with Aberdeen North is well north of what seems to be the City Centre, down Lang Stracht and Westburn Road to Mounthooly

South of Torry but within the City a large new mostly owner-occupied suburb of Cove has developed since oil, the former council estate of Kincorth and Garthdee are two of the most affluent and bought up under RTB so are now largely private.The Labour voting city centre has hollowed out.

Demographically, it has moved a long way from being a Labour target and Anne Begg held on due to voter recognition/personal vote. I didn't feel good to vote against her. Conservative Councillors and those elected as Labour govern the City, delivering the Labour manifesto with the blessing of a wet Tory group. For this they have been suspended by Richard Leonards Corbynite Labour leadership for two years. That may now come to an end when Jackie Bailllie makes her weight felt. These Councillors include the wife of Labour MSP Lewis MacDonald.

In Tory bits, Cults, Culter, Milltimber, Bieldside, Hazlehead, Midstocket, Queens Cross, Ashley, it is very comfortably well off, in a manner that allows it to kid itself it is self-made, so much so that it used to be able to vote Lib Dem. COVID and the oil price, however, are going to bite harder than in less affluent places. With both the current challenging parties being "in government" and the other two being in disarray, this could go in any direction in the next decade.

[southpaw1]

Sorry you are wrong on some these points - Culter is not a tory bit...it's strongly Lib Dem.

Kincorth and Garthdee are now 2 of the most affluent? They're working class neighbourhoods and far from affluent!

[boogieeck]

Apr 12, 2020 7:10:18 GMT southpaw1 said:

Sorry you are wrong on some these points - Culter is not a tory bit...it's strongly Lib Dem.

Kincorth and Garthdee are now 2 of the most affluent? They're working class neighbourhoods and far from affluent!

The Lower Deeside 3 member ward fails to even elect a Lib Dem, preferring a Conservative by 1000 over quota, a Conservative leaning Independent Marie Boulton and a Labour Councillor, Tauqeer Malik, whose vote (and Conservative transfers) is personal, but largely comes out of Culter. No SNP elected and Lib Dems on under one-third of a quota They are not strong anywhere except in history. Those council elections were a month before the 2017 GE. I was at the count getting elected.

Kincorth and Garthdee are far from affluent by Aberdeen standards but are a whole lot more so than Tillydrone, Seaton or Northfield. SNP should take them both, but there will be more Tory votes than Labour. In Aberdeen South, there is no ward that is a landslide for any party. You take your one Councillor and go home happy not to have been the party that missed out unless its Torry, then the SNP can reach for two from four and get lucky. The Lib Dems also balanced four-member Queens Cross absolutely perfectly with two well established well-liked Councillors and fluked two, one of whom promptly defected to the more Tory than the Tories Indy group

When I do Aberdeen North you will see where the deprivation and Labour resides.

[boogieeck]

My apologies. I had forgotten that two wards were increased in size from three to four members, Kincorth/Nigg /Cove and George Street/Harbour. In both cases the SNP won the extra seat, so taking to two from four in those wards as well as Torry/Ferryhill. The Conservatives generally came well above quota but not by enough to have taken a second seat. They did, however, establish themselves as the obvious challenger to Callum McCaig MP of the SNP in an election that was polarised around the constitutional question and Ross Thompson MSP gained the seat for the Conservatives, only to lose it to Cllr Stephen Flynn in 2019.

The four Lib dem Councillors who survived were all incumbents and al came in above quota on a night when their party took a beating. Their residual vote is largely personal. Having said that, its a volatile constituency and every party can look at the demographics and justify why they should be in with a shout.

@fraser knows where the bodies are hidden. In part because he buried some of them.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 61.9% 447/650
Private rented 19.3% 142/650
Social rented 16.7% 297/650
White 92.6% 381/650
Black 2.3% 163/650
Asian 3.8% 278/650
Managerial & professional 38.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.5%
Degree level 40.3% 48/650
No qualifications 17.0% 567/650
Students 11.5% 105/650
Age 65+ 15.0% 450/650

2019 General Election: Aberdeen South

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

SNP Stephen Flynn 20,388 44.7 +13.2
Conservative Douglas Lumsden 16,398 35.9 −6.2
Liberal Democrats Ian Yuill 5,018 11.0 +5.2
Labour Shona Simpson 3,834 8.4 −12.2

SNP Majority 3,990 8.8

Turnout 45,638 69.4 +0.9

SNP gain from Conservative Swing +9.7

[Pete Whitehead]

Surprisingly high black population there. Obviously Aberdeen is an international city based on its oil industry - I guess the major element there may be eg. Nigerians connected with that. But this strikes me as a new development here (and of course, the figures being almost ten years old now, it is not 'new' at all..)

[European Lefty]

Are there any black majority or black plurality constituencies?

[Robert Waller]

Don't think so - see this from the Almanac tables thread (maybe by now, as these are 2011 Census figures - Croydon North fairly close to plurality, 35.2% white then)

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS

.............. % ....... Result 2019

Camberwell and Peckham 37.4 Lab
Croydon North 31.5 Lab
Lewisham Deptford 28.9 Lab
Edmonton 27.3 Lab
Hackney South and Shoreditch 26.9 Lab
Tottenham 26.7 Lab
Lewisham East 25.8 Lab
Erith and Thamesmead 25.7 Lab
Brent Central 25.5 Lab
Dulwich and West Norwood 25.0 Lab
Vauxhall 24.7 Lab
Streatham 24.3 Lab
West Ham 23.1 Lab
Birmingham Ladywood 22.6 Lab
Lewisham West and Penge 22.4 Lab
Barking 20.2 Lab
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 20.1 Lab
Greenwich and Woolwich 20.1 Lab
Hackney N & Stoke Newington 19.6 Lab
Walthamstow 18.9 Lab

[bjornhattan]

Feb 1, 2021 11:30:59 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Surprisingly high black population there. Obviously Aberdeen is an international city based on its oil industry - I guess the major element there may be eg. Nigerians connected with that. But this strikes me as a new development here (and of course, the figures being almost ten years old now, it is not 'new' at all..)

Your intuition is right, the biggest element does seem to be Nigerian. The census says that in Torry/Ferryhill just over 3% of residents are black with 2.3% specifically born in Nigeria. Even higher figures can be found in George Street/Harbour (5.4% and 3.6% respectively), though that is in the North constituency.

[boogieeck]

The Nigerians provide the city with its happiest clappiest most homophobic and islamophobic church and us sufficiently popular to require six minibuses