Ilford South

[John Chanin]

Ilford South is a densely packed urban seat on the east bank of the river Roding, which blends imperceptibly into Barking to the south. The seat is majority Asian throughout - the largest community Indian, but also with large Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations. It is the 5th most Hindu, the 8th most Muslim, and the 8th most Sikh in England & Wales, very similar to East Ham to the south-west, and second only to the latter seat for the smallest number of white inhabitants.  The once substantial Jewish population in the north of the seat has largely moved on. The seat is bisected by the east coast mainline from Liverpool Street, providing good connections into central London. Ilford’s substantial town centre straddles the railway at the western edge of the seat. To the north is Valentines Park, where Essex once played cricket. In the north-east is the delightfully named Seven Kings, although disappointingly there is no royal connection - the name is a corruption. To the south in the Loxford area the white population declines to less than 15%, and there is a large black population as well as asian. This is also where the small amount of social housing in the seat is concentrated. Private renting is very high across the seat, though lower towards the Barking border in the south-east where owner-occupation remains higher. Economically the area is fairly uniform, with a higher proportion of managerial workers in the leafier areas close to the Roding in the north-west of the seat. Cranbrook ward here was the last to turn Labour, but now all wards are won by Labour at local level. Overall this is a fairly prosperous and well educated seat, as well as an ethnic minority dominated one.

Go back in time to the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and this was a key marginal seat. However the demographic change has moved it ever more firmly into the Labour column, and it is now the 30th safest Labour seat in the country. The MP is Momentum linked Sam Tarry, newly elected in 2019 replacing Mike Gapes who originally won the seat from the Conservatives in 1992, but increasingly disaffected, defected to the Independent Group for Change prior to the 2019 election. As shown in the table below Gapes received just 7% of the vote under his new label.  Tarry will however not survive the next election as he has been deselected. 

Like the other ethnic minority seats in this part of London, the seat is significantly oversized. The Boundary Commission is proposing to move the two north-westerly wards, covering Valentines Park, Cranbrook alongside the river, and the south side of Gants Hill, to the Ilford North seat. In exchange it gains the Chadwell Heath ward of Barking - an area that really ought to be in Redbridge anyway, as it consists of a strange northward protusion in the latter borough. These changes will make no political difference in what is a very safe Labour seat.

Census data: owner-occupied 58% (456/573 in England & Wales), private rented 30% (35th), social rented 10% (494th).
                      :White 24%, Black 11%, Sth Asian 48%, Mixed 4%, Other 13%
                      : Managerial & professional 38% (210th), Routine & Semi-routine 25% (402nd)
                      : Degree 32% (113th), Minimal qualifications 31% (459th)
                      : Students 10% (59th), Over 65: 9% (545th)

	2010	%	2015	%	2017	%	2019	%
Labour	25,311	49.4%	33,232	64.0%	43,724	75.8%	35,085	65.6%
Conservative	14,014	27.4%	13,455	25.9%	12,077	20.9%	10,984	20.5%
Liberal Democrat	8,679	17.0%	1,014	2.0%	772	1.3%	1,795	3.4%
UKIP/Brexit	1,132	2.2%	2,705	5.2%	477	0.8%	1,008	1.9%
Green	1,319	2.6%	1,506	2.9%	542	0.9%	714	1.3%
Others	746	1.5%			65	0.1%	3,891	7.3%
Majority	11,297	22.1%	19,777	38.1%	31,647	54.9%	24,101	45.1%

[Deleted]

Apr 9, 2020 11:38:36 GMT John Chanin said:

Ilford South is a densely packed urban seat on the east bank of the river Roding, which blends imperceptibly into Barking to the south. The seat is majority Asian throughout - the largest community Indian, but also with large Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations. It is the 5th most Hindu, the 8th most Muslim, and the 8th most Sikh in England & Wales, very similar to East Ham to the south-west. The once substantial Jewish population in the north of the seat has largely moved on. The seat is bisected by the east coast mainline from Liverpool Street, providing good connections into central London. Ilford’s substantial town centre straddles the railway at the western edge of the seat. To the north is Valentines Park, where Essex once played cricket. In the north-east is the delightfully named Seven Kings, although disappointingly there is no royal connection - the name is a corruption. To the south in the Loxford area the white population declines to less than 15%, and there is a large black population as well as asian. This is also where the small amount of social housing in the seat is concentrated. Private renting is very high across the seat, though lower towards the Barking border in the south-east where owner-occupation remains higher. Economically the area is fairly uniform, with a higher proportion of managerial workers in the leafier areas close to the Roding in the north-west of the seat. Cranbrook ward here was the last to turn Labour, but now all wards are won by Labour at local level. Overall this is a fairly prosperous seat, as well as an ethnic minority dominated one.

Go back in time to the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and this was a key marginal seat. However the demographic change has moved it ever more firmly into the Labour column, and it is now the 30th safest Labour seat in the country. The MP is Momentum linked Sam Tarry, newly elected in 2019 replacing Mike Gapes who originally won the seat from the Conservatives in 1992, but increasingly disaffected, defected to the Independent Group for Change prior to the 2019 election. As shown in the table below Gapes received just 7% of the vote under his new label.

Census data: owner-occupied 58% (456/573 in England & Wales), private rented 30% (35th), social rented 10% (494th).
                      :White 24%, Black 11%, Sth Asian 48%, Mixed 4%, Other 13%
                      : Managerial & professional 38% (210th), Routine & Semi-routine 25% (402nd)

	2010	%	2015	%	2017	%	2019	%
Labour	25,311	49.4%	33,232	64.0%	43,724	75.8%	35,085	65.6%
Conservative	14,014	27.4%	13,455	25.9%	12,077	20.9%	10,984	20.5%
Liberal Democrat	8,679	17.0%	1,014	2.0%	772	1.3%	1,795	3.4%
UKIP/Brexit	1,132	2.2%	2,705	5.2%	477	0.8%	1,008	1.9%
Green	1,319	2.6%	1,506	2.9%	542	0.9%	714	1.3%
Others	746	1.5%			65	0.1%	3,891	7.3%
Majority	11,297	22.1%	19,777	38.1%	31,647	54.9%	24,101	45.1%

Two observations.

Firstly, there is still a Jewish presence around the Gants Hill area, where there are a number of shops and community facilities. There is a significant ultra-Orthodox element (the origins of which I don't know).

Secondly, the Labour selection process which installed Sam Tarry was not without controversy - many people believed that Council Leader Jas Athwal (a moderate) had been stitched up. This may account for part of the quite respectable vote for Mike Gapes at December's general election.

EDIT

I see now you have covered the Jewish community under Ilford North. That's fair enough as more Jews live in that constituency, but Gants Hill is on the border and the community is on both sides.

[John Chanin]

Apr 9, 2020 12:29:17 GMT @goodoldcause2 said:

Two observations.

Firstly, there is still a Jewish presence around the Gants Hill area, where there are a number of shops and community facilities. There is a significant ultra-Orthodox element (the origins of which I don't know).

Secondly, the Labour selection process which installed Sam Tarry was not without controversy - many people believed that Council Leader Jas Athwal (a moderate) had been stitched up. This may account for part of the quite respectable vote for Mike Gapes at December's general election.

EDIT

I see now you have covered the Jewish community under Ilford North. That's fair enough as more Jews live in that constituency, but Gants Hill is on the border and the community is on both sides.

For your information the way I am doing this is writing my profiles outside the forum and then copying them in, and trying not to repeat things for neighbouring seats, which is the way Robert Waller did it in his almanacs.  

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries

Lab	30193	65.2%
Con	9810	21.2%
LD	1506	3.3%
BxP	1061	2.3%
Grn	607	1.3%
Oth	3130	6.8%
Majority	20383	44.0%

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census

Owner occupied 49.7% 497/573
Private rented 39.5% 9/573
Social rented 10.8% 486/573
White 19.8%
Black 9.9%
Asian 61.2%
South Asian 55.1%
Hindu 11.4% 8/650
Muslim 43.7% 6/650
Managerial & professional 26.8% 448/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 452/573
Degree level 39.4% 117/573
No qualifications 19.5% 219/573



2011
Owner occupied 58.1% 456/573
Private rented 31.5% 35/573
Social rented 10.5% 494/573

White 24%, Black 11%, Sth Asian 48%
Hindu 13.3% 5/650
Muslim 34.9% 9/650
Managerial & professional 27.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.2%
Degree level 32.5% 113/573
No qualifications 18.4% 447/573