Post by John Chanin on Apr 9, 2020 11:31:11 GMT
Ilford sits on the east bank of the river Roding at the edge of the London conurbation, with Chigwell in Essex to the north (the urban area is continuous). Ilford North consists mainly of inter-war owner-occupied semi-detached houses, and is thoroughly middle-class. It was famous historically for its large Jewish population, centred on Gants Hill in the south of the seat, and despite large numbers having moved out this was still the 8th most Jewish seat at the last census. These days they are far outnumbered by Asian households (both Indian and Pakistani) who form the majority in the three southern wards of the seat. Ilford was also famous for the large number of London taxi drivers who lived there, and though their ethnicity has changed, this has not. Further north in Fairlop, the population is majority white and this was the only Ilford ward held by the Conservatives at the last local elections. In the north-east corner there is some variety - the large post-war LCC overspill estate of Hainault. Like most of the low-rise cottage estates on the edge of London this is now majority owner-occupied. There has been less transfer to private renting than in other similar east London estates, and the ward remains more than two-thirds white, with a more working-class population, which had a high UKIP vote in the last decade like many similar area. Hainault is the furthest flung station on the loop of the Central line, which serves Redbridge, and is therefore well connected to central London, despite being largely surrounded by open space.
In 1997 two wards closer to the centre of Ilford were removed and replaced by two wards from Woodford. These are similar to Fairlop in ethnicity, tenure, and occupation, and indeed in politics, although the Liberal Democrats long had a foothold in Roding ward, and there is the large, isolated, and fairly miserable Broadmead tower-block council estate at Woodford Bridge. The western boundary is the central line of the London underground, which is above ground here, and has surprisingly few crossings. The M11 runs through the middle of this area, and meets the North Circular Road in South Woodford and the new ward boundaries more sensibly respect these dividing lines.
Historically Ilford North was a fairly safe Conservative seat, vulnerable to Labour only in a very good year. It was won by Labour in 1997 and 2001, but reverted to the Conservatives in 2005. The addition of the Woodford wards should have made it safer, but this is one of the seats in Britain that has been subject to the most rapid social and political change. This was the safest Conservative seat won by Labour in 2015, and there was another big swing in 2017. With Labour now polling more than half the vote, and demographic change continuing, it is hard to see the Conservatives winning here again. The MP since 2015 is Wes Streeting, one of many former NUS presidents who have served on the Labour benches, and now a senior member of the shadow cabinet.
The Boundary Commission is proposing substantial changes to this seat. All the Woodford area amounting to 16,000 voters is being moved to the Chingford & Woodford Green, and Leyton & Wanstead seats. In exchange 17,000 voters come in from Ilford South in Cranbrook and Valentines wards, south of the A12 and alongside the Roding, taking the seat almost into Ilford town centre. This should remove any worries Streeting might have about his future tenure of the seat, as it will now be entirely safe for Labour.
Census data: owner-occupied 69% (241/573 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (202nd), social rented 13% (366th).
:White 53%, Black 8%, Sth Asian 24%, Mixed 4%, Other 11%
: Managerial & professional 40% (161st), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (478th)
: Degree 30% (165th), Minimal qualifications 34% (361st)
: Students 6% (138th), Over 65: 13.5% (462nd)
In 1997 two wards closer to the centre of Ilford were removed and replaced by two wards from Woodford. These are similar to Fairlop in ethnicity, tenure, and occupation, and indeed in politics, although the Liberal Democrats long had a foothold in Roding ward, and there is the large, isolated, and fairly miserable Broadmead tower-block council estate at Woodford Bridge. The western boundary is the central line of the London underground, which is above ground here, and has surprisingly few crossings. The M11 runs through the middle of this area, and meets the North Circular Road in South Woodford and the new ward boundaries more sensibly respect these dividing lines.
Historically Ilford North was a fairly safe Conservative seat, vulnerable to Labour only in a very good year. It was won by Labour in 1997 and 2001, but reverted to the Conservatives in 2005. The addition of the Woodford wards should have made it safer, but this is one of the seats in Britain that has been subject to the most rapid social and political change. This was the safest Conservative seat won by Labour in 2015, and there was another big swing in 2017. With Labour now polling more than half the vote, and demographic change continuing, it is hard to see the Conservatives winning here again. The MP since 2015 is Wes Streeting, one of many former NUS presidents who have served on the Labour benches, and now a senior member of the shadow cabinet.
The Boundary Commission is proposing substantial changes to this seat. All the Woodford area amounting to 16,000 voters is being moved to the Chingford & Woodford Green, and Leyton & Wanstead seats. In exchange 17,000 voters come in from Ilford South in Cranbrook and Valentines wards, south of the A12 and alongside the Roding, taking the seat almost into Ilford town centre. This should remove any worries Streeting might have about his future tenure of the seat, as it will now be entirely safe for Labour.
Census data: owner-occupied 69% (241/573 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (202nd), social rented 13% (366th).
:White 53%, Black 8%, Sth Asian 24%, Mixed 4%, Other 11%
: Managerial & professional 40% (161st), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (478th)
: Degree 30% (165th), Minimal qualifications 34% (361st)
: Students 6% (138th), Over 65: 13.5% (462nd)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 16,102 | 34.3% | 21,463 | 43.9% | 30,589 | 57.8% | 25,323 | 50.5% |
Conservative | 21,506 | 45.8% | 20,874 | 42.7% | 20,950 | 39.6% | 20,105 | 40.1% |
Liberal Democrat | 5,924 | 12.6% | 1,130 | 2.3% | 1,034 | 2.0% | 2,680 | 5.3% |
UKIP/Brexit | 871 | 1.9% | 4,355 | 8.9% | 960 | 1.9% | ||
Green | 572 | 1.2% | 1,023 | 2.1% | 845 | 1.7% | ||
Others | 2,001 | 4.3% | 87 | 0.2% | 368 | 0.7% | 201 | 0.4% |
Majority | (5404) | (11.5%) | 589 | 1.2% | 9,639 | 18.2% | 5,218 | 10.4% |
