West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

[therealriga]

Apr 8, 2020 18:22:07 GMT @boogieeck said:

Andrew Bowie, age 28, the oldest candidate in the election, won the seat with a majority of 7950. 

Out of curiosity, if Bowie was the oldest of the four candidates, how old were the other three?

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 15.5% 420/650
Owner-occupied 74.8% 72/650
Private rented 10.6% 548/650
Social rented 11.9% 497/650
White 98.0% 113/650
Black 0.4% 406/650
Asian 1.1% 490/650
Managerial & professional 38.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1%
Degree level 33.3% 117/650
No qualifications 18.1% 532/650
Students 6.3% 420/650



General Election 2019: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Andrew Bowie 22,752 42.7 -5.2
SNP Fergus Mutch 21,909 41.1 +8.6
Liberal Democrats John Waddell 6,263 11.7 +3.1
Labour Patrick Coffield 2,431 4.6 -6.5

C Majority 843 1.6 -13.8

Turnout 53,317 73.4 +2.2

Conservative hold
Swing 6.9 C to SNP

[The Bishop]

Do you still have the profiles for this seat and Banff/Buchan, uthacalthing?

[ntyuk1707]

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine is a county constituency in southern Aberdeenshire which follows the Valleys of the River Dee and southern River Don from their sources in the Grampian Mountains east towards the Aberdeen City council area, where the two rivers then flow out into the North Sea. The seat also covers the agricultural plains of the Mearns to the south-east, bordering onto Angus.

Kincardine and Western Aberdeenshire was first established as a constituency of the House of Commons ahead of the 1918 general election as a combination of the safely Liberal Kincardineshire and West Aberdeenshire constituencies, which had both returned Liberal MPs to Parliament from the 1865 general election onwards. The newly drawn seat was won uncontested by war veteran Arthur Murray of the Liberals in 1918, and held by him against the National Liberals in 1922. Unionist Malcolm Barclay-Harvey contested the seat in 1923 and won it by 270 votes, with the seat and its successors subsequently returning Conservative/Unionist MPs until 1997, from which point onwards the constituency was represented by Liberal Democrat MP Sir Robert Smith and the overlapping Scottish Parliamentary seat was won by Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles until SNP victories in 2011 (Scottish Parliament) and 2015 (UK Parliament), where the Conservatives retained second place ahead of the Liberal Democrats who slipped into third.

The Valley of the River Dee is often referred to as 'Royal Deeside', containing Balmoral Castle, a famous holiday home of Her Late Majesty the Queen in the heart of Grampian National Park, Braemar Castle and a tourist walk route along the old Royal Deeside railway from Aberdeen to Braemar. Throughout the 2000's and 2010's this area remained a Conservative heartland in a sea of Liberal orange and SNP yellow in eastern and northern parts of Aberdeenshire respectively. But with a blooming Conservative vote across Aberdeenshire, this area has been surpassed by other wards in the county in its support for the Tories, with the party taking 43% of party votes here in the 2022 local elections.

In keeping with the region's royal tradition however, Deeside remains among the most fiercely anti-independence regions of Aberdeenshire, with particularly strong opposition in the town of Banchory, a town with one of the highest proportion of English-born residents in Scotland. Deeside is a very affluent region with picturesque towns and villages such as Aboyne, Braemar and Ballater, which dot the course of the River Dee to the dramatic backdrop of the River Dee Valley and Grampian Mountains. Closer towards Aberdeen City are wealthy commuter villages like Drumoak and Maryculter. The Deeside region of Aberdeenshire voted approximately 73% against independence at the 2014 referendum.

North-east of Deeside sitting on the edge of Aberdeen is the affluent commuter town of Westhill. Westhill was a former Liberal Democrat-leaning area, which has since become stronger for the Conservatives owing to the SNP's rise throughout Scotland and oppositionary attitudes towards this within the town. The Westhill and District ward like Deeside had an estimated 73% vote against independence in the 2014 referendum. This ward includes strongly Conservative rural communities west of Westhill including Echt and Sauchen.

Further north, the constituency boundary zigs and zags along and away from the River Don to encompass the communities of Alford, Monymusk, Kemnay and Blackburn.

Kemnay contains some of the only parts of the constituency which rank as being more deprived than the national average. Alongside the commuter area of Blackburn just outside of Aberdeen which has witnessed significant construction of newly built housing in recent decades, these areas are better for the SNP than the rest of the constituency, while Alford, Monymusk and their surrounding rural communities are substantially better for the Conservatives.

The remaining portion of the constituency stretches from the southern border of Aberdeen City to the northern border of Angus.

Kincardineshire is a historic Scottish county which includes rural farming and coastal communities in the Mearns region nearing Angus, the popular coastal resort of Stonehaven, and the Aberdeen suburbs of Newtonhill and Portlethen.

Newtonhill, Portlethen and the adjacent area has seen substantive growth of new build housing, and it is a stronger area for the SNP and weaker area for the Conservatives relative to elsewhere in the seat, with the North Kincardineshire ward voting around 57% No in the 2014 referendum, the weakest ward for Better Together fully covered by the West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine constituency.

In contrast to this, Stonehaven is an area which, like Deeside, has retained a stronger residual Conservative vote than elsewhere in the constituency, which has become surprassed by other wards across the wider Aberdeenshire area with the party's growth in Brexit-leaning parts of Banff and Buchan. Nevertheless, the Stonehaven & Lower Deeside ward is estimated to have voted 68% against Scottish independence, higher than elsewhere in the constituency and Aberdeenshire as a whole. Stonehaven contains one of three datazones in the constituency with a higher-than-average rate of deprivation, with the remaining two being located in Kemnay.

Finally, the more agricultural ward of Mearns - a traditionally more Liberal-leaning area which includes the towns of Laurencekirk and Inverbervie and villages of St Cyrus, Marykirk and Johnshaven has become a hotly contested ward between the SNP and Conservatives, with the Tories topping the poll here ahead of the SNP by just 2.8% in last year's council elections. Like the rest of Aberdeenshire, the ward is estimated to have voted 60% No to independence.

Overall, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine ranks as Scotland's least deprived constituency, and it is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence by around 66% No and voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum by over 61%.

It may therefore come as a surprise that Tory MP Andrew Bowie, who won the constituency in 2017 with a majority of 7,950 (15.4%) scrapped in by the skin of his teeth in 2019 with a majority of just 843 votes ahead of the SNP (1.6%).

That being said, it is worth noting this constituency voted over 61% remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum, which likely played a factor in a stronger-than-expected SNP performance here as it did in neighbouring Aberdeen South.

In the 2021 Scottish election, Alexander Burnett, the MSP for Aberdeenshire West constituency beat the SNP with a 3,390 majority (8.1%), up 5.6 points on his majority in 2016. Mr Burnett's vote share increased to 47.2% (up 9.1%). Improved Conservative performances in affluent remain-leaning constituencies which are traditionally better for the party was certainly a trend in the 2021 Scottish election relative to their performance in 2019 - for example the party recovered significantly in seats like Eastwood, Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, Stirling, Perthshire South & Kinross-shire and Edinburgh Pentlands.

Therefore, it might be fair to say more than other constituencies that Mr Bowie's majority was perhaps slightly surpressed due to Brexit in 2019, and that the in the next UK general election his vote may hold up better than other constituencies in Scotland.

As of the writing of this profile the Conservatives are down by an average of 6% on their 2019 performance in Scotland and the SNP are down by an average of 6% in the opinion polls.

The boundaries here are not set to change, so if these polling figures were to hold up then a Conservative hold here would be a reasonable assumption, but given the extremely close nature of the vote in 2019, Mr Bowie should not take his support for granted.

It is also worth noting that similar to Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirkshire and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale where voters were widely aware that those constituencies would be SNP v. Conservative marginals, the 2017 SNP vote here was significantly closer to the 2014 independence referendum result than in other parts of Scotland, where nationally they took only 37% of the vote compared to the 45% Yes vote in 2014. This would suggest that the SNP have a quite high floor in this constituency compared to other parts of Scotland! For example in 2017, the SNP took 32.5% of the vote, just 0.5% lower than the projected Yes vote in the constituency, compared to an average vote share of 8% lower than the referendum across Scotland.

2019 general election
CON: 22,752 (42.7%)
SNP: 21,909 (41.1%)
LIB: 6,253 (11.7%)
LAB: 2,431 (4.6%)

2017 general election
CON: 24,704 (47.9%)
SNP: 16,754 (32.5%)
LAB: 5,706 (11.1%)
LIB: 4,461 (8.6%)

[Clark]

My impressions were always the Tory support was stronger the more you travelled up the Dee Valley towards Dinnet, Ballater and Braemar but they're strongest area is probably the town of Banchory

[batman]

Small point - the Liberals won West Aberdeenshire, which I should have thought could be reasonably regarded as a predecessor to this seat, in 1966. If we regard the former Kincardine & Deeside constituency as a predecessor, the Lib Dems won that in a by-election in 1991, only to lose it in the general election to George Kynoch of the Conservatives the next year.

[ntyuk1707]

Apr 5, 2023 8:20:53 GMT Clark said:

My impressions were always the Tory support was stronger the more you travelled up the Dee Valley towards Dinnet, Ballater and Braemar but they're strongest area is probably the town of Banchory

When you account for Independent politicians, the Conservatives' best performing polling districts in the constituency at the 2022 local elections were Ballater, Dinnet and Easter Balmoral, closely followed by Alford and its surrounding rural communities; western Banchory, Strachan and surroundings; eastern Deeside including Kirkton of Maryculter, Drumoak and their surrounding rural communities; and rural parts of northern Mearns around Auchenblae and Drumlithie. 

However in terms of support for the SNP, this was notably lower in west Banchory, Strachan and surroundings than elsewhere in the constituency, followed by the rest of the Banchory & Mid-Deeside ward; Torphins; Braemar and Donside; Westhill & District ward; western Stonehaven; and eastern Deeside - with Ballater, Dinnet and Easter Balmoral not far behind these areas in its higher opposition to the SNP. 

Banchory certainly stands out as one of the SNP's worst performing areas in Aberdeenshire however. 

[The Bishop]

Thank you very much for your profile ntyuk1707 - which means that, finally, every seat in the country is now covered!

[Clark]

This is certainly one of the most beautiful seats in Britain - whether it's a snowy scene in winter, hot (sometimes!) in summer or the amazing tree colours of autumn, I love a trip up Deeside - mountains, rivers, Scots Pine trees abound. Stunning.

[rockefeller]

Apr 5, 2023 15:19:23 GMT Clark said:

This is certainly one of the most beautiful seats in Britain - whether it's a snowy scene in winter, hot (sometimes!) in summer or the amazing tree colours of autumn, I love a trip up Deeside - mountains, rivers, Scots Pine trees abound. Stunning.

Yes. Gordon and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine are among the most beautiful seats anywhere in the UK.