Post by jamie on Apr 8, 2020 15:51:21 GMT
Blyth Valley
Blyth Valley constituency covers Blyth, Cramlington and the Seaton Valley. Once dominated by coal mining, the towns that make up this constituency are now increasingly commuter belt for Newcastle upon Tyne. Blyth Valley has almost always elected a Labour MP, though not always be the biggest margins. It was won by the incumbent Labour MP as an independent in February 1974 but very narrowly regained by Labour in October 1974. This challenge was fended off more comfortably in 1979 and Labour were able to hold off the SDP in 1983 and 1987. From 1992 to 2010, the Liberal Democrats were a consistent if usually distant 2nd. In 2015, UKIP took a very distant 2nd place and the Conservatives came a reasonably distant 2nd in 2017. This all changed in 2019, with the Conservatives narrowly taking the seat thanks to both a 6% increase in the Conservative vote and a 15% decrease in the Labour vote.
Blyth Valley has significant geographical divergence in political behaviour. Beginning in Blyth itself, we find a largely post-industrial town. The coal mining industry has disappeared in recent decades and while the town still functions as a port, it retains significant deprivation. Blyth is by far the most Labour friendly part of the constituency and will have quite comfortably voted Labour even in 2019. Labour are strongest in the council estates that dominate the north and central areas of the town. The Conservative vote is very disproportionately concentrated in South Blyth, an area of affluence in an otherwise almost entirely working class town. The area will have been close in 2017 but comfortably Conservative in 2019. The next section of the constituency is the Seaton Valley. A collection of somewhat more rural former coal mining villages, this area will have been fairly representative of the constituency as a whole, if a bit more Labour leaning. Seaton Sluice is the most Labour leaning settlement while on the opposite end Holywell will have been close in 2017 and comfortably Conservative in 2019. The largest settlement, Seaton Delaval, will have been close in 2019. Finally, the constituency includes the town of Cramlington. Originally an area of coal mining like the other parts of the constituency, the town was chosen as a post-war New Town. This has led to significant housing development, much of it decidedly middle class in character. The town is the most middle class area of the constituency and also has the clearest commuter links with Newcastle. Cramlington almost certainly voted Conservative in 2017 and will have done so by a large margin in 2019. The town is trending the fastest towards the Conservatives of anywhere in the constituency. The Conservative vote is strongest in the owner-occupier housing estates in the north of the town, with absolutely towering margins in the Northburn area. Labour are strongest in the more working class area of Mayfield, along with the socially mixed Southfield estate. Even here, it will have been competitive in 2019.
Overall, Blyth Valley was traditionally a Labour constituency but not necessarily a comfortable one. The non-Labour vote has finally been able to unite around the Conservatives which, combined with direct Labour to Conservative switchers, gave the Conservatives a narrow victory in 2019. The constituency is likely to trend Conservative in the future, with the towns continuing to become more middle class commuter belt, particularly Cramlington. Nonetheless, Labour retain significant strength in the poorest parts of the constituency, particularly Blyth itself, and will need to win here at the next election if they wish to form a government.
Blyth Valley constituency covers Blyth, Cramlington and the Seaton Valley. Once dominated by coal mining, the towns that make up this constituency are now increasingly commuter belt for Newcastle upon Tyne. Blyth Valley has almost always elected a Labour MP, though not always be the biggest margins. It was won by the incumbent Labour MP as an independent in February 1974 but very narrowly regained by Labour in October 1974. This challenge was fended off more comfortably in 1979 and Labour were able to hold off the SDP in 1983 and 1987. From 1992 to 2010, the Liberal Democrats were a consistent if usually distant 2nd. In 2015, UKIP took a very distant 2nd place and the Conservatives came a reasonably distant 2nd in 2017. This all changed in 2019, with the Conservatives narrowly taking the seat thanks to both a 6% increase in the Conservative vote and a 15% decrease in the Labour vote.
Blyth Valley has significant geographical divergence in political behaviour. Beginning in Blyth itself, we find a largely post-industrial town. The coal mining industry has disappeared in recent decades and while the town still functions as a port, it retains significant deprivation. Blyth is by far the most Labour friendly part of the constituency and will have quite comfortably voted Labour even in 2019. Labour are strongest in the council estates that dominate the north and central areas of the town. The Conservative vote is very disproportionately concentrated in South Blyth, an area of affluence in an otherwise almost entirely working class town. The area will have been close in 2017 but comfortably Conservative in 2019. The next section of the constituency is the Seaton Valley. A collection of somewhat more rural former coal mining villages, this area will have been fairly representative of the constituency as a whole, if a bit more Labour leaning. Seaton Sluice is the most Labour leaning settlement while on the opposite end Holywell will have been close in 2017 and comfortably Conservative in 2019. The largest settlement, Seaton Delaval, will have been close in 2019. Finally, the constituency includes the town of Cramlington. Originally an area of coal mining like the other parts of the constituency, the town was chosen as a post-war New Town. This has led to significant housing development, much of it decidedly middle class in character. The town is the most middle class area of the constituency and also has the clearest commuter links with Newcastle. Cramlington almost certainly voted Conservative in 2017 and will have done so by a large margin in 2019. The town is trending the fastest towards the Conservatives of anywhere in the constituency. The Conservative vote is strongest in the owner-occupier housing estates in the north of the town, with absolutely towering margins in the Northburn area. Labour are strongest in the more working class area of Mayfield, along with the socially mixed Southfield estate. Even here, it will have been competitive in 2019.
Overall, Blyth Valley was traditionally a Labour constituency but not necessarily a comfortable one. The non-Labour vote has finally been able to unite around the Conservatives which, combined with direct Labour to Conservative switchers, gave the Conservatives a narrow victory in 2019. The constituency is likely to trend Conservative in the future, with the towns continuing to become more middle class commuter belt, particularly Cramlington. Nonetheless, Labour retain significant strength in the poorest parts of the constituency, particularly Blyth itself, and will need to win here at the next election if they wish to form a government.
