Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 20:29:57 GMT
This gigantic, sparsely populated Highland constituency is the second largest on the Great British mainland, beaten only by it's southern neighbour - Ross, Skye & Lochaber. As the name would suggest, the constituency consists of the two historic counties of Caithness and Sutherland, and an eastern portion of Ross-Shire historically referred to as "Easter Ross". The remaining portion of Ross-Shire which falls within the "Ross, Skye & Lochaber" constituency is referred to as "Wester Ross" - although the terms are loosely defined and the exact historic boundaries are moot.
The constituency was created in 1997 from the entire former "Caithness & Sutherland" constituency and part of the "Ross, Cromarty & Skye" constituency. The Caithness & Sutherland part of the constituency has a somewhat interesting electoral history - having had one of the closest three way election results in history with the defeat of Liberal leader (and grandfather of future Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross MP John Thurso) Sir Archibald Sinclair in 1945, and when combined with the current constituency - being one of the few areas of the UK to have elected MPs from four different political parties since the Second World War.
The constituency was expanded slightly in the 2005 review, taking in the Ross-Shire town of Alness from the abolished "Ross, Skye & Inverness West" constituency.
Upon the constituency's creation, it appeared to be fairly reliable for the Liberal Democrats, although Labour achieved respectable second places during their best years of 2001 and 2005. Like almost every Scottish Liberal Democrat constituency, the seat fell to the SNP in their 2015 landslide, although the Liberal Democrat vote total increased numerically - perhaps due to a vain tactical voting attempt by Labour and Conservative voters. However, in 2017, the SNP vote share fell by over 17 points and the constituency was a somewhat unexpected gain for the Liberal Democrats by 2,044 votes. In 2019, a resurgent SNP cut this majority to just 204 votes.
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 6, 2020 21:11:14 GMT
Thanks for starting us off 'north of the border', Sandy.
I really enjoyed researching the Scottish parts of my Almanac ...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 22:20:31 GMT
Before the defeat of Jo Swinson in 2019, Caithness & Sutherland in 1945 was the last time a leader of one of the main parties was defeated in a General Election.
Liberal leader Archibald Sinclair came third behind Labour and lost by 61 votes to Eric Gandar Dower.
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Sept 8, 2020 20:10:54 GMT
Between 1997 and 2010 Labour actually achieved a decent vote in this seat of between 21% - 28% which surprised me. Where were their main areas of support within the seat?
Since then of course, their support here has fallen off a cliff
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Sept 8, 2020 20:16:05 GMT
Between 1997 and 2010 Labour actually achieved a decent vote in this seat of between 21% - 28% which surprised me. Where were their main areas of support within the seat? Since then of course, their support here has fallen off a cliff Probably concentrated in Wick and Thurso and the East coast towns where it has now collapsed to the SNP. Non existent in the West of the constituency I would imagine. East Sutherland has a Labour councillor, but she is elected off a strong personal following rather than party loyalty. I doubt this translates into much Westminster strength outside of the aforementioned towns. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 8, 2020 20:46:53 GMT
Similarly, I would wonder where each party's current base of support is. I would imagine Jamie Stone has a strong personal vote in and around Tain, and as you say Wick and Thurso would probably be quite strong for the SNP.
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Post by MacShimidh on Sept 8, 2020 20:47:22 GMT
Thurso and Wick are a lot more working class than one might expect. It's been a while since I was in Caithness but it has a different feel to the rest of the Highlands.
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Sept 8, 2020 21:11:13 GMT
Similarly, I would wonder where each party's current base of support is. I would imagine Jamie Stone has a strong personal vote in and around Tain, and as you say Wick and Thurso would probably be quite strong for the SNP. The Lib Dems are strongest in East Sutherland, which is also the SNP's weakest area, and I would imagine you are correct about Jamie Stone's personal vote SNP are strongest in Wick and Cromarty Firth which are quite deprived West Sutherland is probably about 50/50 split between SNP and Lib Dem Tory vote is probably a thin spread all across the constituency, might get a decent vote in Dornoch I guess |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 31, 2021 19:09:45 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.2% 129/650
Owner-occupied 65.0% 377/650
Private rented 8.6% 620/650
Social rented 23.3% 140/650
White 99.2% 1/650
Black 0.1% 637/650
Asian 0.5% 646/650
Managerial & professional 25.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.5%
Employed in water supply 2.8% 1/650
Degree level 21.1% 469/650
No qualifications 29.8% 100/650
Students 4.7% 645/650
2019 General election: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Jamie Stone 11,705 37.2 +1.4
SNP Karl Rosie 11,501 36.6 +7.4
Conservative Andrew Sinclair 5,176 16.5 -6.1
Labour Cheryl McDonald 1,936 6.2 -6.2
Brexit Party Sandra Skinner 1,139 3.6 N/A
LD Majority 204 0.6 -6.0
Turnout 31,457 67.0 +1.1
Liberal Democrats hold
Swing 3.0 LD to SNP
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 3, 2023 10:49:30 GMT
Similarly, I would wonder where each party's current base of support is. I would imagine Jamie Stone has a strong personal vote in and around Tain, and as you say Wick and Thurso would probably be quite strong for the SNP. The Lib Dems are strongest in East Sutherland, which is also the SNP's weakest area, and I would imagine you are correct about Jamie Stone's personal vote SNP are strongest in Wick and Cromarty Firth which are quite deprived West Sutherland is probably about 50/50 split between SNP and Lib Dem Tory vote is probably a thin spread all across the constituency, might get a decent vote in Dornoch I guess Going off of the local elections, the Liberal Democrats strongest areas are Caithness (including Wick) and East Sutherland, while the SNP are strongest in west Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Cromarty Firth quite surprisingly sits in the middle. Tory's best areas are communities between Watten and Altnabreac in central Caithness. Boundary changes certainly disadvantage the Liberal Democrats by bringing in SNP-heavy towns from Ross-shire like Dingwall, Conon Bridge, Muir of Ord, Strathpeffer and Marybank. Dingwall is of course the home of Kate Forbes, and most of the newly added areas belong to her Scottish Parliamentary seat of Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch. There is potential for the unionist vote to coalesce around the Liberal Democrats as it has done in North East Fife and Edinburgh West, which would make this seat an easy pick-up for them, and difficulties in the SNP's polling figures across Scotland would also benefit the party. However the new seat could easily swing either way and very much the subject of local factors given the uniquely independent politics of the Highlands and Islands compared to the rest of Scotland, and the SNP's strength in newly added parts of Ross-shire means they should not be overlooked. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 3, 2023 11:02:07 GMT
The Lib Dems are strongest in East Sutherland, which is also the SNP's weakest area, and I would imagine you are correct about Jamie Stone's personal vote SNP are strongest in Wick and Cromarty Firth which are quite deprived West Sutherland is probably about 50/50 split between SNP and Lib Dem Tory vote is probably a thin spread all across the constituency, might get a decent vote in Dornoch I guess , the Liberal Democrats strongest areas are Caithness (including Wick) and East Sutherland, while the SNP are strongest in west Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Cromarty Firth quite surprisingly sits in the middle. Tory's best areas are communities between Watten and Altnabreac in central Caithness. Boundary changes certainly disadvantage the Liberal Democrats by bringing in SNP-heavy towns from Ross-shire like Dingwall, Conon Bridge, Muir of Ord, Strathpeffer and Marybank. Dingwall is of course the home of Kate Forbes, and most of the newly added areas belong to her Scottish Parliamentary seat of Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch. There is potential for the unionist vote to coalesce around the Liberal Democrats as it has done in North East Fife and Edinburgh West, which would make this seat an easy pick-up for them, and difficulties in the SNP's polling figures across Scotland would also benefit the party. However the new seat could easily swing either way and very much the subject of local factors given the uniquely independent politics of the Highlands and Islands compared to the rest of Scotland, and the SNP's strength in newly added parts of Ross-shire means they should not be overlooked. I'm not sure that's a terribly sensible thing to do in an area like this one. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 3, 2023 16:15:36 GMT
Going off of the local elections, the Liberal Democrats strongest areas are Caithness (including Wick) and East Sutherland, while the SNP are strongest in west Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Cromarty Firth quite surprisingly sits in the middle. Tory's best areas are communities between Watten and Altnabreac in central Caithness. Boundary changes certainly disadvantage the Liberal Democrats by bringing in SNP-heavy towns from Ross-shire like Dingwall, Conon Bridge, Muir of Ord, Strathpeffer and Marybank. Dingwall is of course the home of Kate Forbes, and most of the newly added areas belong to her Scottish Parliamentary seat of Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch. There is potential for the unionist vote to coalesce around the Liberal Democrats as it has done in North East Fife and Edinburgh West, which would make this seat an easy pick-up for them, and difficulties in the SNP's polling figures across Scotland would also benefit the party. However the new seat could easily swing either way and very much the subject of local factors given the uniquely independent politics of the Highlands and Islands compared to the rest of Scotland, and the SNP's strength in newly added parts of Ross-shire means they should not be overlooked. I'm not sure that's a terribly sensible thing to do in an area like this one. Touché! On the basis of the 2017 and 2022 local election results I do standby Caithness and eastern Sutherland being the best parts of the constituency for the Lib Dems as this is consistent across both elections. From the 2017 and 2022 local elections and the 2014 independence referendum result it is also fair to say the areas being added into the seat from Wester Ross are more pro-independence/SNP leaning than elsewhere in the constituency. The prominence of Independent politicians in mainland Highland have significantly lessened from 20 years ago. In 2003, Independents took 69.6% of the vote in Highland. In 2007, this dropped to 40.9%. In 2012, 40.2%. In 2017, 36.1%. And in 2022, 25.6%. That's a drop of 44% in 20 years, or 14.6% in 10 years. |
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