Post by bungle on Apr 6, 2020 15:00:46 GMT
Please excuse the length but I rather enjoyed writing this one....
Burton
As a constituency, Burton has a long pedigree (or should that be Pedigree?). It was created in 1885 and the name has remained unchanged for 135 years, surviving every attempt to re-name the constituency ‘East Staffordshire’. Danger does lurk on the horizon: the newly elected MP Kate Griffiths wants to curry favour with the Boundary Commissioners and adopt that modern convention of listing more than one notable conurbation in the name: for her it should be 'Burton & Uttoxeter'.
Quite what Uttoxeter brings in value compared to Burton is highly debatable, given many people will struggle to name anything of significance about the former (I shall try my best). For most people, especially thirsty psephologists, Burton is far better known and is synonymous with one product – although arguably these days it should be two (though the second is merely a by-product of the first). Of course, we are talking about beer and Marmite. In Burton it is Bass in particular and its red triangle (the first registered trademark) that is still a strong global brand, no doubt fuelled by its proud independence having succumbed to a global conglomerate AB InBev.
Burton’s politics in the 19th and early 20th century was dominated by the ‘beerage’. Michael Bass was the first MP for Burton in 1885 and fittingly enough he soon became Lord Burton. If I stated that the full name of the two big brewers were Bass, Ratcliff & Gretton and Marston, Thompson & Evershed then it doesn’t require a genius to spot why the moniker ‘beerage’ was apt. Bass handed over to the Liberal Sydney Evershed in 1886. In 1900 the baton was passed to the Liberal Col Robert Ratcliff of Newton Solney, who soon joined the Liberal Unionist forces with the split over tariff reform. To keep it in the beerage, in 1918 Ratcliff handed over to Unionist John Gretton (despite the latter already sitting as MP for Rutland) who could then combine his chairmanship of BRG with representing the town’s interests in parliament. Just to place the cherry on this cake of cliquishness, in 1943 Gretton was raised to the peerage and his son, also John, took over as Member of Parliament.
It would seem that the huge ordnance explosion in November 1944 at Fauld (in the constituency) was an auger of what was to come politically. In 1945 the beerage were washed away on a red tide that brought the election of a Labour MP called Arthur Lyne, an official of the National Union of Boot and Shoe Operatives. His victory by 760 votes meant he did not survive the pro-Conservative swing in 1950 but it is fair to note that in an era of two party contests (the Liberals did not emerge between 1929 and Oct 1974) Burton always remained competitive; even in 1959 the Tory margin of victory was only 12%. Labour fell agonisingly short in 1966 (by 277 votes) and again there was much expectation in 1974 when the Labour candidate for both elections was David Hill, later successor to Alistair Campbell as Tony Blair’s Director of Communications.
So what are the basic drivers of Burton’s psephology? Historically the town itself has always formed around 45-50% of constituency electorate but over time this has changed; currently about 65% of the constituency is now within the Burton urban conurbation. Whilst Robert Waller was correct 25 years ago to state “the constituency is substantially more working class than average” the newer voters within Burton owe little loyalty to such class-based identity and have employment that is a notch or two above their forebears. They are the type for whom both New Labour and more recently the Conservatives proved an attractive proposition. Burton town itself still appears working class in origin, especially those communities within the wards of Angelsey (mainly ethnic minorities of Pakistani origin), Shobnall and Eton Park which are largely artisan terraced housing and are most reliably Labour in local elections. Across the Trent in Stapenhill and Winshill there are large estates of inter-war and post-war council housing which are usually Labour, but less so this past decade.
There is change in the type of employment that Burton now offers. Brewing doesn’t dominate but remains sizeable. Burton’s location as a well-connected location (A38/A50 to M1/M6) has seen vast distribution parks emerge within the last 20 years. With a degree of prosperity and employment what were once small villages now provide the type of private, family-sized housing estates that naturally cultivate Conservative voters – Stretton, Branston and, most recently, in the Brizlincote Valley. Beyond the urban boundaries the commuter villages of Tutbury and Rolleston have a similar demographic outlook and beyond them is a collection of rural villages with vast swathes of land owned by HM the Queen in her guise as Duke of Lancaster. In this area west of Burton the FA have recently opened a large football centre "St Georges Park" at Rangemore, which is on the site of one of the Bass family country estates. All of these rural areas are solidly Conservative at a local level.
The constituency stretches up to Uttoxeter – a small town that manufactures biscuits and is the location of a middling racecourse which is home to the Midlands ‘Grand’ National. The racecourse itself was owned for many years by the ‘godfather’ of Burton Conservatives, local self-made property magnate Sir Stanley Clarke; the connection between the town and the Conservatives is often strong. Historically Labour were competitive in its Heath ward, which contains the more working class of the town, but their challenge has faded of late. Beyond Uttoxeter the constituency heads due north past Rocester, home to that company most beloved of Tories seeking a hi-viz photo op – JCB (who can forget Boris, the digger and ‘Get Brexit Done’). It ends up in the rural beauty of the Weaver Hills. Since the opening of the A50 Stoke-Derby dual carriageway this northern end of the constituency has seen stronger housing growth which, combined with the growth around Burton itself, has reduced the size of the rural hinterland needed to make up the electorate.
In 1997 the defending Conservative (and Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee), Sir Ivan Lawrence, was the first to feel the impact of this. The staunchly Conservative areas of Yoxall and Bagots were removed to the new Lichfield CC. This helped Labour’s Janet Dean finally repeat the 1945 victory with a convincing win, although she would have won by around 5,000 on the old boundaries. By 2005 the Labour lead in Burton was down to barely over 1,000 and it was a clear target for the Conservatives. Enter stage left the Boundary Commission who proposed the removal of further strong Tory territory around Barton-under-Needwood. Despite this 2,000 vote pull to Labour, come the 2010 election they were firmly defeated on a swing of 9%. The victorious Andrew Griffiths continued to entrench the Tory position, achieving results in 2015 and 2017 that outperformed Lawrence in 1983 & 87. Sadly for Griffiths his personal position became somewhat precarious after allegations of sexual misconduct led to a lengthy suspension from the Conservative parliamentary party. In 2019 his own future as candidate saw a tumultuous battle come to a head with a tied vote of all association members (117-117) in a motion of no confidence just a few days before nominations closed. He was eventually manoeuvred out and replaced by his estranged wife who went on to record an impressive 60% of the vote.
Like its neighbour South Derbyshire, the working class and labouring vote has diminished here and Labour hasn’t found an alternative source of support – this is not a place for ‘artsy’ folk or vast swathes of academics or public sector professionals. This means Burton will remain very hard for Labour to crack in the future unless the political stars align to create something similar to the mid 90s.
Burton
As a constituency, Burton has a long pedigree (or should that be Pedigree?). It was created in 1885 and the name has remained unchanged for 135 years, surviving every attempt to re-name the constituency ‘East Staffordshire’. Danger does lurk on the horizon: the newly elected MP Kate Griffiths wants to curry favour with the Boundary Commissioners and adopt that modern convention of listing more than one notable conurbation in the name: for her it should be 'Burton & Uttoxeter'.
Quite what Uttoxeter brings in value compared to Burton is highly debatable, given many people will struggle to name anything of significance about the former (I shall try my best). For most people, especially thirsty psephologists, Burton is far better known and is synonymous with one product – although arguably these days it should be two (though the second is merely a by-product of the first). Of course, we are talking about beer and Marmite. In Burton it is Bass in particular and its red triangle (the first registered trademark) that is still a strong global brand, no doubt fuelled by its proud independence having succumbed to a global conglomerate AB InBev.
Burton’s politics in the 19th and early 20th century was dominated by the ‘beerage’. Michael Bass was the first MP for Burton in 1885 and fittingly enough he soon became Lord Burton. If I stated that the full name of the two big brewers were Bass, Ratcliff & Gretton and Marston, Thompson & Evershed then it doesn’t require a genius to spot why the moniker ‘beerage’ was apt. Bass handed over to the Liberal Sydney Evershed in 1886. In 1900 the baton was passed to the Liberal Col Robert Ratcliff of Newton Solney, who soon joined the Liberal Unionist forces with the split over tariff reform. To keep it in the beerage, in 1918 Ratcliff handed over to Unionist John Gretton (despite the latter already sitting as MP for Rutland) who could then combine his chairmanship of BRG with representing the town’s interests in parliament. Just to place the cherry on this cake of cliquishness, in 1943 Gretton was raised to the peerage and his son, also John, took over as Member of Parliament.
It would seem that the huge ordnance explosion in November 1944 at Fauld (in the constituency) was an auger of what was to come politically. In 1945 the beerage were washed away on a red tide that brought the election of a Labour MP called Arthur Lyne, an official of the National Union of Boot and Shoe Operatives. His victory by 760 votes meant he did not survive the pro-Conservative swing in 1950 but it is fair to note that in an era of two party contests (the Liberals did not emerge between 1929 and Oct 1974) Burton always remained competitive; even in 1959 the Tory margin of victory was only 12%. Labour fell agonisingly short in 1966 (by 277 votes) and again there was much expectation in 1974 when the Labour candidate for both elections was David Hill, later successor to Alistair Campbell as Tony Blair’s Director of Communications.
So what are the basic drivers of Burton’s psephology? Historically the town itself has always formed around 45-50% of constituency electorate but over time this has changed; currently about 65% of the constituency is now within the Burton urban conurbation. Whilst Robert Waller was correct 25 years ago to state “the constituency is substantially more working class than average” the newer voters within Burton owe little loyalty to such class-based identity and have employment that is a notch or two above their forebears. They are the type for whom both New Labour and more recently the Conservatives proved an attractive proposition. Burton town itself still appears working class in origin, especially those communities within the wards of Angelsey (mainly ethnic minorities of Pakistani origin), Shobnall and Eton Park which are largely artisan terraced housing and are most reliably Labour in local elections. Across the Trent in Stapenhill and Winshill there are large estates of inter-war and post-war council housing which are usually Labour, but less so this past decade.
There is change in the type of employment that Burton now offers. Brewing doesn’t dominate but remains sizeable. Burton’s location as a well-connected location (A38/A50 to M1/M6) has seen vast distribution parks emerge within the last 20 years. With a degree of prosperity and employment what were once small villages now provide the type of private, family-sized housing estates that naturally cultivate Conservative voters – Stretton, Branston and, most recently, in the Brizlincote Valley. Beyond the urban boundaries the commuter villages of Tutbury and Rolleston have a similar demographic outlook and beyond them is a collection of rural villages with vast swathes of land owned by HM the Queen in her guise as Duke of Lancaster. In this area west of Burton the FA have recently opened a large football centre "St Georges Park" at Rangemore, which is on the site of one of the Bass family country estates. All of these rural areas are solidly Conservative at a local level.
The constituency stretches up to Uttoxeter – a small town that manufactures biscuits and is the location of a middling racecourse which is home to the Midlands ‘Grand’ National. The racecourse itself was owned for many years by the ‘godfather’ of Burton Conservatives, local self-made property magnate Sir Stanley Clarke; the connection between the town and the Conservatives is often strong. Historically Labour were competitive in its Heath ward, which contains the more working class of the town, but their challenge has faded of late. Beyond Uttoxeter the constituency heads due north past Rocester, home to that company most beloved of Tories seeking a hi-viz photo op – JCB (who can forget Boris, the digger and ‘Get Brexit Done’). It ends up in the rural beauty of the Weaver Hills. Since the opening of the A50 Stoke-Derby dual carriageway this northern end of the constituency has seen stronger housing growth which, combined with the growth around Burton itself, has reduced the size of the rural hinterland needed to make up the electorate.
In 1997 the defending Conservative (and Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee), Sir Ivan Lawrence, was the first to feel the impact of this. The staunchly Conservative areas of Yoxall and Bagots were removed to the new Lichfield CC. This helped Labour’s Janet Dean finally repeat the 1945 victory with a convincing win, although she would have won by around 5,000 on the old boundaries. By 2005 the Labour lead in Burton was down to barely over 1,000 and it was a clear target for the Conservatives. Enter stage left the Boundary Commission who proposed the removal of further strong Tory territory around Barton-under-Needwood. Despite this 2,000 vote pull to Labour, come the 2010 election they were firmly defeated on a swing of 9%. The victorious Andrew Griffiths continued to entrench the Tory position, achieving results in 2015 and 2017 that outperformed Lawrence in 1983 & 87. Sadly for Griffiths his personal position became somewhat precarious after allegations of sexual misconduct led to a lengthy suspension from the Conservative parliamentary party. In 2019 his own future as candidate saw a tumultuous battle come to a head with a tied vote of all association members (117-117) in a motion of no confidence just a few days before nominations closed. He was eventually manoeuvred out and replaced by his estranged wife who went on to record an impressive 60% of the vote.
Like its neighbour South Derbyshire, the working class and labouring vote has diminished here and Labour hasn’t found an alternative source of support – this is not a place for ‘artsy’ folk or vast swathes of academics or public sector professionals. This means Burton will remain very hard for Labour to crack in the future unless the political stars align to create something similar to the mid 90s.
