mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924 
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Post by mondialito on Apr 5, 2020 23:06:26 GMT
BRENT NORTH
Brent North is a constituency which sits on the cusp of suburbia, and as such will have as much in common with neighbouring Harrow as it does with the rest of Brent. The constituency was created in 1974 by fusing together the Wembley North and Wembley South constituencies. The constituency takes in most of the old Borough of Wembley following the most recent boundary changes, and as such can be said to cover the most westerly wards in Brent, making its name something of a misnomer.
The biggest settlement in the constituency is Wembley, whose town centre, focussed mainly on the High Road, is a hub for transport and shopping (Wembley Stadium is in Brent Central). Other major settlements are Sudbury, Alperton, North Wembley and Kingsbury. Parts of Kenton and Queensbury are also in the constituency, which has a more suburban feel than neighbouring Brent Central, with more large green spaces and private detached housing. The Metropolitan Line runs through this constituency and as such the 1930s development of the area shadowing its route – nicknamed Metroland – can be felt here, particularly as you head further up the line towards Harrow-on-the-Hill.
Demographically, Brent North is minority-majority, with those identifying as Asian making up 52.4% of the population in the 2011 census. Many are from affluent Indian communities and established in the constituency for decades, although there are also more recent arrivals from the sub-continent. As well as Irish, African-Caribbean and Eastern European populations, there is a growing Somali community in Wembley and a smaller Jewish community in North Wembley.
Brent North has been represented through its existence by just two MPs. The first, Rhodes Boyson, was a Conservative who first entered Parliament at the constituency’s first contested election in February 1974. Noted for his mutton-chop sideburns, broad Lancastrian accent and advocacy of corporal punishment in schools, Boyson served in a number of junior ministerial roles under Margaret Thatcher. Boyson was defeated by Labour in the landslide of 1997, on an 18.9% swing, and replaced by Barry Gardiner, who has held the seat ever since. Gardiner has served in ministerial roles in Government and on the frontbench in Opposition and is known for his advocacy of issues and positions popular amongst the Indian population of the constituency. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 6, 2020 11:02:20 GMT
It might be worth explicitly addressing why the seat has moved from apparently safe Conservative to relatively safe Labour ...
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 6, 2020 18:43:29 GMT
The Conservatives have clearly been making substantial inroads into the Hindu community, which is generally successful and well off, particularly here. With Richi Sunak, Alok Sharma, and Priti Patel all having senior roles in the present government, this I suggest is likely to continue, and it would be no surprise if Brent North becomes marginal again in the near future.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Apr 6, 2020 20:19:11 GMT
The Conservatives have clearly been making substantial inroads into the Hindu community, which is generally successful and well off, particularly here. With Richi Sunak, Alok Sharma, and Priti Patel all having senior roles in the present government, this I suggest is likely to continue, and it would be no surprise if Brent North becomes marginal again in the near future. But at the end of the day, it's London, and that is the main part of England (together with a few of its exurbs) that is significantly down for us on our national performance. I don't expect Hindu voters to become overwhelmingly Conservative, unless senior Labour figures start going around denying India's right to exist or something – I think it's much more likely that they will continue to vote like the general population in whatever place they live. I don't expect Brent North to have a Conservative MP again in my lifetime. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 23:13:34 GMT
The Conservatives have clearly been making substantial inroads into the Hindu community, which is generally successful and well off, particularly here. With Richi Sunak, Alok Sharma, and Priti Patel all having senior roles in the present government, this I suggest is likely to continue, and it would be no surprise if Brent North becomes marginal again in the near future. But at the end of the day, it's London, and that is the main part of England (together with a few of its exurbs) that is significantly down for us on our national performance. I don't expect Hindu voters to become overwhelmingly Conservative, unless senior Labour figures start going around denying India's right to exist or something – I think it's much more likely that they will continue to vote like the general population in whatever place they live. I don't expect Brent North to have a Conservative MP again in my lifetime. I thought this was a decent swing in the context of a disappointing 2019 London result. Don’t forget that Liverpool Walton has been a fairly reliable Conservative seat within the lifetimes of some of the forum’s members, so never say never..... |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,151
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 7, 2020 10:41:46 GMT
The Conservatives have clearly been making substantial inroads into the Hindu community, which is generally successful and well off, particularly here. With Richi Sunak, Alok Sharma, and Priti Patel all having senior roles in the present government, this I suggest is likely to continue, and it would be no surprise if Brent North becomes marginal again in the near future. But at the end of the day, it's London, and that is the main part of England (together with a few of its exurbs) that is significantly down for us on our national performance. I don't expect Hindu voters to become overwhelmingly Conservative, unless senior Labour figures start going around denying India's right to exist or something – I think it's much more likely that they will continue to vote like the general population in whatever place they live. I don't expect Brent North to have a Conservative MP again in my lifetime. I think there's some indication that their inclination to vote Labour may be influenced by the degree to which Labour side with Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir - which under Corbyn was quite strenuously, and there is a substantial Kashmiri muslim element to Labour's membership in certain areas which would resist it being any other way. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 7, 2020 10:56:02 GMT
Whether this becomes winnable for the Conservatives again may well depend on the identity of Barry Gardiner’s successor as the Labour candidate. If Labour select an inappropriate candidate and the Conservatives select a high profile Hindu, they may have a real chance.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 7, 2020 11:07:20 GMT
Most third generation British asians don’t care a shit about Kashmir, one way or another. They may not even know where it is.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 12, 2021 20:40:36 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 12.0% 569/650
Owner-occupied 55.3% 536/650
Private rented 26.6% 55/650
Social rented 15.2% 344/650
White 26.6% 648/650
Black 12.3% 32/650
Asian 52.4% 5/650
Hindu 32.0% 1/650
Managerial & professional 26.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.9%
Degree level 32.9% 120/650
No qualifications 18.8% 507/650
Students 13.8% 69/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 50.3% 495/573 large changes in tenure 2011-21
Private rented 34.6% 33/573
Social rented 15.1% 293/573
White 27.4%
Black 11.4%
Asian 49.1%
Hindu 28.5% 2/650
Managerial & professional 25.9% 471/573
Routine & Semi-routine 22.8% 319/573
Degree level 38.2% 131/573
No qualifications 23.2% 83/573 highest rise of the 573 seats 2011-21
General election 2019: Brent North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Barry Gardiner 26,911 51.9 -11.0
Conservative Anjana Patel 18,832 36.3 +3.6
Liberal Democrats Paul Lorber 4,065 7.8 +5.0
Brexit Party Suzie O'Brien 951 1.8 N/A
Green Simon Rebbitt 850 1.6 +0.5
Independent Noel Coonan 169 0.3 N/A
Independent Elcena Jeffers 101 0.2 N/A
Lab Majority 8,079 15.6 -14.7
Turnout 51,879 61.9 -6.4
Labour hold
Swing 7.3 Lab to C
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2022 16:15:57 GMT
The initital proposals by the boundary commission made a meal of both the boundaries and the name of this seat. These would have removed Kingsbury ward and the part of Welsh Harp included (basically the old Fryent ward) and some areas around the centre of Wembley such as Alperton and Wembley Hill, leaving Wembley Central in the constituency but surrounded on three sides by Brent Central. Replacing these areas would be the two Kenton wards (East and West) from Harrow, this occasioning a name change to the extremely clumsy 'Kenton & Wembley West'. This did have the 'advantage' of uniting Kenton in a single seat, though it isn't clear there has ever been a particularly pressing need to do that. On the other hand it divides Wembley itself in trhe most appaling fashion (as well as dividing Kingsbury which is all but unavoidable).
The revised proposals result in one of the most pleasing creations and a vast improvement on the initial plans. The seat loses the area to the east of Fryent way (Kingsbury and Queensbury wards and part of Welsh Harp) and retains all the areas around Wembley which to be removed, additionally gaining the Tokyngton and Wembley Park wards from Brent central. This results in very neat and copmpact boundaries with the eastern boundary being the river Brent and Fryent way. Indeed the boundaries are almost identical to the pre-1937 Wembley urban district (before it annexed Kingsbury) and justifies the use of the compact name 'Wembley'.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2022 21:15:55 GMT
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries (Wembley) | Lab | 25815 | 54.1% | | Con | 16282 | 34.1% | | LD | 3914 | 8.2% | | BxP | 861 | 1.8% | | Grn | 647 | 1.4% | | Oth | 209 | 0.4% | | | | | | Majority | 9533 | 20.0% |
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Post by spinach on Dec 26, 2022 21:02:03 GMT
Brent North - 9.99% White British
Constituency with the lowest White British % population in England and Wales.
(data from Robert Waller)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2022 21:13:55 GMT
Brent North - 9.99% White British Constituency with the lowest White British % population in England and Wales. (data from Robert Waller) This wasn’t the one I would’ve guessed for that particular statistic. Actually makes the recent Tory performances here look more respectable, whilst explaining the apparently solid Labour hold on the seat. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 27, 2022 8:19:11 GMT
Brent North - 9.99% White British Constituency with the lowest White British % population in England and Wales. (data from Robert Waller) There are very large percentages of "white other" in London. In fact of the 32 constituencies with over 16% in this category, 31 are in London, the only exception being Cambridge, where presumably the university/research industries have brought in many foreigners. Outside London the next half dozen are Peterborough, Northampton South, Oxford East, Luton South, Bedford, Boston & Skegness. |
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 27, 2022 9:31:08 GMT
Brent North - 9.99% White British Constituency with the lowest White British % population in England and Wales. (data from Robert Waller) There are very large percentages of "white other" in London. In fact of the 32 constituencies with over 16% in this category, 31 are in London, the only exception being Cambridge, where presumably the university/research industries have brought in many foreigners. Outside London the next half dozen are Peterborough, Northampton South, Oxford East, Luton South, Bedford, Boston & Skegness. I'd imagine these same seats were high up on the list in 2011 too. Northamptonshire had large numbers of Eastern Europeans when I was growing up there. |
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Post by spinach on Dec 27, 2022 18:03:47 GMT
Brent North - 9.99% White British Constituency with the lowest White British % population in England and Wales. (data from Robert Waller) This wasn’t the one I would’ve guessed for that particular statistic. Actually makes the recent Tory performances here look more respectable, whilst explaining the apparently solid Labour hold on the seat. That's true about the Tory performance. North West London must be one of the most diverse parts of the country. London Borough of Brent is the local authority with the 2nd lowest White British % population in England Wales (15.2%) and nearby constituencies such as Brent Central, Ealing Southall, Harrow West and East and Ealing North are all less than 25% White British. |
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Post by spinach on Dec 27, 2022 18:10:41 GMT
Brent North - 9.99% White British Constituency with the lowest White British % population in England and Wales. (data from Robert Waller) There are very large percentages of "white other" in London. In fact of the 32 constituencies with over 16% in this category, 31 are in London, the only exception being Cambridge, where presumably the university/research industries have brought in many foreigners. Outside London the next half dozen are Peterborough, Northampton South, Oxford East, Luton South, Bedford, Boston & Skegness. There's a large White Other in this constituency (27.37%) and neighbouring Brent Central, Harrow West and Harrow East. Many of the wards round Queensbury and Kingsbury are 10%+ Romanian. Queensbury East is 21.2% (which is probably the highest % in England and Wales) |
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