Post by bungle on Apr 5, 2020 10:36:05 GMT
Derby North
Derby North was first created for the 1950 General Election when the old two-seat Derby constituency was abolished. Although it has endured as a name for 70 years this seat has seen shifts in its boundaries throughout that time which has altered its space on the electoral spectrum from broadly Labour-leaning to genuine marginal and then back again to a degree. In 1979 it was featured on the BBC Election Night as ‘the seat to watch’ and it provided a cliffhanger with Philip Whitehead holding on for Labour by 214 votes.
Derby North is largely a suburban seat based around the planned expansion of Derby over the decades from the 1920s. This is not the constituency of the city centre nor of any of the large industry for which Derby is well known – BREL/Bombardier Rail or Rolls Royce. The majority of the seat comprises previous villages which have expanded beyond all scale – Mickleover, Littleover, Chaddesden. There is also a large 1950s council estate at Mackworth which is detached from the village of the same name. There are some more typical Victorian urban elements within the constituency: tight-knit terraces such as at St Lukes (Abbey Ward) and the Rowditch/Slack Lane area but these do not dominate. To the north of the Ashbourne Road is the sprawling Darley ward which comprises a mix of housing styles and demographics – students and rental properties close to the centre while further out at Darley Abbey is affluent housing stock with a distinctly village feel. Much of the housing within the Derwent and Chaddesden wards is inter-war ex-corporation with a splash of modest-sized private housing whereas Mickleover has provided the focus for a relentless expansion of private family-sized housing since the 1960s.
The changes which ushered in the current boundaries back in 2010 created a strong incentive to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Derby electorate can support around 2.4 seats so some city wards have often spilled over into surrounding county constituencies. From 1983 – 2010 South Derbyshire was the recipient of these but in 2010 the focus shifted to the north of the city. The strongest Conservative ward in the city – Allestree - was removed and placed into the new creation of Mid Derbyshire. Two other Derby North wards were also removed to Mid Derbyshire – Oakwood and Spondon; these are also reliably Conservative in inclination. The concomitant shift of the remaining city wards saw compensation in the form of Mickleover and Littleover arriving from Derby South. Historically both Littleover and Mickleover were Conservative citadels but from the early 1990s this was eroded at the local level mainly through the increasing activism of the Liberal Democrats (although it was Labour who managed to win Mickleover in their apogee of 1995/1996). This becomes important in explaining the 3-way split which emerged in the 2010 election which was most uncharacteristic in the history of the constituency. With the Lib Dem vote largely consolidated in one seat and the national tide running with Clegg-mania the Lib Dems managed to obtain an impressive 28% of the vote. Labour managed to win – just - with 33%. If the 2010 election had been fought on the old boundaries the Conservatives would have won by around 5,000, returning Derby North to its position when held by Greg Knight from 1983-1997.
The rest of the seat indicates some of the recent shifts in voter behaviour. The Mackworth ward was reliably Labour and formed a bedrock of its support at a national level alongside Abbey and Derwent. But this is a ward that contains a higher % of the type of voter who flirted with UKIP and ‘lent’ votes to the Tories nationally. This trend was more pronounced in Derwent where UKIP were successful at the municipal level and now all 3 seats are held by the Conservatives. Similarly in Chaddesden the default setting of ‘normally Labour’ has been broken these past 5 years with the Conservatives polling exceptionally well in 2018 & 19 (around 60% of the vote). As a counter-trend, Darley ward used to be the second most reliable Conservative ward after Allestree but this has changed as both students, renters and also more public sector professionals and culturally left voters have found the Kedleston and Duffield Road areas a congenial birth. Labour now regularly secures Darley ward at a municipal level, although never comfortably. This type of growth in Labour support is also now detectable in Littleover although it has yet to topple the Lib Dem stranglehold in local elections.
Despite all of these shifts, it is fair to describe the seat on these boundaries as broadly Labour leaning. The Conservative victory in 2019 was solid but unexceptional. Add into that mix the fact that Labour were handicapped by having to choose a last-minute candidate to replace the controversial Chris Williamson; also Labour’s stock in Derby at a municipal level has been pretty low for the last few years from which they might be able to recover now no longer in charge at the Civic Centre. The proposed changes in the 2018 Review were quite fundamental – an East/West split with the bulk of Derby North ending up in the West. This seat would easily be the best prospect for Labour. But as this review will remain on the shelf we shall have to wait to see how Derby North will fare in the future.
Derby North was first created for the 1950 General Election when the old two-seat Derby constituency was abolished. Although it has endured as a name for 70 years this seat has seen shifts in its boundaries throughout that time which has altered its space on the electoral spectrum from broadly Labour-leaning to genuine marginal and then back again to a degree. In 1979 it was featured on the BBC Election Night as ‘the seat to watch’ and it provided a cliffhanger with Philip Whitehead holding on for Labour by 214 votes.
Derby North is largely a suburban seat based around the planned expansion of Derby over the decades from the 1920s. This is not the constituency of the city centre nor of any of the large industry for which Derby is well known – BREL/Bombardier Rail or Rolls Royce. The majority of the seat comprises previous villages which have expanded beyond all scale – Mickleover, Littleover, Chaddesden. There is also a large 1950s council estate at Mackworth which is detached from the village of the same name. There are some more typical Victorian urban elements within the constituency: tight-knit terraces such as at St Lukes (Abbey Ward) and the Rowditch/Slack Lane area but these do not dominate. To the north of the Ashbourne Road is the sprawling Darley ward which comprises a mix of housing styles and demographics – students and rental properties close to the centre while further out at Darley Abbey is affluent housing stock with a distinctly village feel. Much of the housing within the Derwent and Chaddesden wards is inter-war ex-corporation with a splash of modest-sized private housing whereas Mickleover has provided the focus for a relentless expansion of private family-sized housing since the 1960s.
The changes which ushered in the current boundaries back in 2010 created a strong incentive to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Derby electorate can support around 2.4 seats so some city wards have often spilled over into surrounding county constituencies. From 1983 – 2010 South Derbyshire was the recipient of these but in 2010 the focus shifted to the north of the city. The strongest Conservative ward in the city – Allestree - was removed and placed into the new creation of Mid Derbyshire. Two other Derby North wards were also removed to Mid Derbyshire – Oakwood and Spondon; these are also reliably Conservative in inclination. The concomitant shift of the remaining city wards saw compensation in the form of Mickleover and Littleover arriving from Derby South. Historically both Littleover and Mickleover were Conservative citadels but from the early 1990s this was eroded at the local level mainly through the increasing activism of the Liberal Democrats (although it was Labour who managed to win Mickleover in their apogee of 1995/1996). This becomes important in explaining the 3-way split which emerged in the 2010 election which was most uncharacteristic in the history of the constituency. With the Lib Dem vote largely consolidated in one seat and the national tide running with Clegg-mania the Lib Dems managed to obtain an impressive 28% of the vote. Labour managed to win – just - with 33%. If the 2010 election had been fought on the old boundaries the Conservatives would have won by around 5,000, returning Derby North to its position when held by Greg Knight from 1983-1997.
The rest of the seat indicates some of the recent shifts in voter behaviour. The Mackworth ward was reliably Labour and formed a bedrock of its support at a national level alongside Abbey and Derwent. But this is a ward that contains a higher % of the type of voter who flirted with UKIP and ‘lent’ votes to the Tories nationally. This trend was more pronounced in Derwent where UKIP were successful at the municipal level and now all 3 seats are held by the Conservatives. Similarly in Chaddesden the default setting of ‘normally Labour’ has been broken these past 5 years with the Conservatives polling exceptionally well in 2018 & 19 (around 60% of the vote). As a counter-trend, Darley ward used to be the second most reliable Conservative ward after Allestree but this has changed as both students, renters and also more public sector professionals and culturally left voters have found the Kedleston and Duffield Road areas a congenial birth. Labour now regularly secures Darley ward at a municipal level, although never comfortably. This type of growth in Labour support is also now detectable in Littleover although it has yet to topple the Lib Dem stranglehold in local elections.
Despite all of these shifts, it is fair to describe the seat on these boundaries as broadly Labour leaning. The Conservative victory in 2019 was solid but unexceptional. Add into that mix the fact that Labour were handicapped by having to choose a last-minute candidate to replace the controversial Chris Williamson; also Labour’s stock in Derby at a municipal level has been pretty low for the last few years from which they might be able to recover now no longer in charge at the Civic Centre. The proposed changes in the 2018 Review were quite fundamental – an East/West split with the bulk of Derby North ending up in the West. This seat would easily be the best prospect for Labour. But as this review will remain on the shelf we shall have to wait to see how Derby North will fare in the future.
