Oxford West and Abingdon

[greenhert]

Oxford West & Abingdon was created in 1983 from the former constituencies of Oxford and Abingdon respectively.

The "Oxford West" part of the seat consists of the wealthy Oxford suburbs of Wolvercote, Summertown, and St Margaret's as well as the alternative-minded area of Jericho. The "Abingdon" part contains Abingdon, once the county town of Berkshire, the nearby villages of Hinksey and Kidlington (which was moved into the constituency in 1997), and the village of Radley famous for its prestigious private school of the same name. It is one of the wealthiest and most well-educated constituencies in the country despite only having a minority of the Oxford colleges in its boundaries, with the Oxford wards having proportions of graduates exceeding 50%.

In its inaugural election, Oxford West & Abingdon was won by the Conservatives' John Patten (now Lord Patten), who served as the Education Secretary under (Sir) John Major from 1992 to 1994, with the former Labour MP for Oxford, Evan Luard, finishing a strong second for the SDP. Despite valiant attempts by the Liberal Democrats it took them until 1997 to win the seat via way of Dr Evan Harris. Unfavourable boundary changes partly contributed to his defeat by Nicola Blackwood (now Baroness Blackwood) in 2010 by just 176 votes. The Conservatives held on in 2015 against Layla Moran's first challenge, but Ms Moran won back the seat in 2017 for the Liberal Democrats thanks partly to the Greens not standing a candidate in the constituency for the first time ever. Given the constituency's high Remain vote it is unsurprising Ms Moran managed a further 6.9% swing against the Conservatives in 2019, making this a reasonably safe Liberal Democrat seat. The Liberal Democrats dominate at a local level as well despite there being some Green support in the "Oxford West" part (the Greens did win the Wolvercote county division in 2001, and one councillor in the West Central county division in 2005 which contained wards within Oxford West & Abingdon's boundaries) and Labour have never been remotely competitive here either locally or nationally except in the far southern end of the constituency (North and Jericho & Osney wards).

[bjornhattan]

Apr 5, 2020 10:33:08 GMT greenhert said:

Oxford West & Abingdon was created in 1983 from the former constituencies of Oxford and Abingdon respectively.

The "Oxford West" part of the seat consists of the wealthy Oxford suburbs of Wolvercote, Summertown, and St Margaret's as well as the alternative-minded area of Jericho. The "Abingdon" part contains Abingdon, once the county town of Berkshire, the nearby villages of Hinksey and Kidlington (which was moved into the constituency in 1997), and the village of Radley famous for its prestigious private school of the same name. It is one of the wealthiest and most well-educated constituencies in the country despite only having a minority of the Oxford colleges in its boundaries, with the Oxford wards having proportions of graduates exceeding 50%.

In its inaugural election, Oxford West & Abingdon was won by the Conservatives' John Patten (now Lord Patten), who served as the Education Secretary under (Sir) John Major from 1992 to 1994, with the former Labour MP for Oxford, Evan Luard, finishing a strong second for the SDP. Despite valiant attempts by the Liberal Democrats it took them until 1997 to win the seat via way of Dr Evan Harris. Unfavourable boundary changes partly contributed to his defeat by Nicola Blackwood (now Baroness Blackwood) in 2010 by just 176 votes. The Conservatives held on in 2015 against Layla Moran's first challenge, but Ms Moran won back the seat in 2017 for the Liberal Democrats thanks partly to the Greens not standing a candidate in the constituency for the first time ever. Given the constituency's high Remain vote it is unsurprising Ms Moran managed a further 6.9% swing against the Conservatives in 2019, making this a reasonably safe Liberal Democrat seat. The Liberal Democrats dominate at a local level as well despite there being some Green support in the "Oxford West" part (the Greens did win the Wolvercote county division in 2001, and one councillor in the West Central county division in 2005 which contained wards within Oxford West & Abingdon's boundaries) and Labour have never been remotely competitive here either locally or nationally except in the far southern end of the constituency (North and Jericho & Osney wards).

This is my patch and I'd already started researching and writing up a profile, so I'll probably still add that to the thread. I'm not knocking the work you've done which is a decent account of the seat.

As regards your points, I would argue that Labour have been competitive recently in parts of Abingdon, with Caldecott ward having split Labour/Conservative representation. Kidlington has also elected Labour councillors in the distant past. On the point of the latter, while it is technically a village, it's the biggest one in England and has the population and facilities you'd expect of a town.

It's also easy to overstate the wealth in this constituency - in general Abingdon is comfortably off rather than wealthy, and parts of Kidlington and southern Abingdon are much more deprived than you might expect. The former will have almost certainly voted Leave (though narrowly), in line with the rest of Cherwell district.

[Deleted]

1992 was the last time Tory Councillors were elected in the Oxford part of the seat, although the Tories might have been ahead in Wolvercote in 2015.

Carfax and Holywell (the most student-heavy wards) were removed in 2010.

Abingdon & Oxford North would be a more accurate name.

From my three years in Oxford, I can recommend The Perch and The Trout for a drink.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 5, 2020 11:07:46 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

1992 was the last time Tory Councillors were elected in the Oxford part of the seat.

Carfax and Holywell (the most student-heavy wards) were removed in 2010.

Abingdon & Oxford North would be a more accurate name.

The proposed successor in the boundary review would have been called that. It would have gained two wards north of Kidlington from Henley, but lost St Margaret's and Jericho to a renamed Oxford East.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 5, 2020 11:10:10 GMT @abiezercoppe said:

Apr 5, 2020 11:04:07 GMT bjornhattan said:

This is my patch and I'd already started researching and writing up a profile, so I'll probably still add that to the thread. I'm not knocking the work you've done which is a decent account of the seat.

As regards your points, I would argue that Labour have been competitive recently in parts of Abingdon, with Caldecott ward having split Labour/Conservative representation. Kidlington has also elected Labour councillors in the distant past. On the point of the latter, while it is technically a village, it's the biggest one in England and has the population and facilities you'd expect of a town.

It's also easy to overstate the wealth in this constituency - in general Abingdon is comfortably off rather than wealthy, and parts of Kidlington and southern Abingdon are much more deprived than you might expect. The former will have almost certainly voted Leave (though narrowly), in line with the rest of Cherwell district.

It may also be worth mentioning in your write up the 2019 local election results. The Liberal Democrats won all the seats, at town and district level, in the Berkshire-part of the constituency, bar one Green in ‘Abingdon Abbey Northcourt’.

Even there, they had a tactical agreement with the Green in question.

[Deleted]

The wealth in the Oxford part of the seat is considerable with many commuting to London from the seat's two railway stations. Abingdon strikes me as a fairly normal place.

Oxford has seen a 500% increase in house prices since 1995 in line with Brighton and Cambridge.

This was a surprising Tory gain in 2010 and had a similar majority to Sheffield Hallam going into the election.

I wonder if David Cameron representing the neighboring constituency gave the Conservatives a boost here.

[iang]

The original seat did include most of the University colleges. Most colleges came under Central ward, which when I was there (mid 80s) was usually a knife edge marginal between the Alliance and Labour, and some half dozen like St Hugh's, Somerville & LMH came under North Ward, which was safely Lib/ All. If I remember, the Central ward boundary then even looped across the river to hook in St Hilda's which would otherwise have come under St Clements in Oxford East. Lots of students obviously lived in East - various colleges had (probably still do) accomodation there). The closest I've ever come to voting for a winning candidate in a FPTP election was in Oxford Central in 1986. Labour won the seat by 23 votes. Ironically, the Alliance candidate for whom I voted (and worked hard for) who lost so narrowly was - Andrew Adonis!

[greenhert]

Apr 5, 2020 11:02:42 GMT @abiezercoppe said:

Thank you for your post.

I’ve a very minor point regarding your inclusion of Kidlington in the Abingdon-part of the constituency. Arguably, Abingdon and Kidlington are two quite distinct parts of the constituency. There are no real connections between the two.

I was referring to all the non-Oxford parts of the constituency as the "Abingdon" part. Kidlington will almost certainly be removed from the constituency in the next boundary review.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 5, 2020 19:36:45 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 5, 2020 11:02:42 GMT @abiezercoppe said:

Thank you for your post.

I’ve a very minor point regarding your inclusion of Kidlington in the Abingdon-part of the constituency. Arguably, Abingdon and Kidlington are two quite distinct parts of the constituency. There are no real connections between the two.

I was referring to all the non-Oxford parts of the constituency as the "Abingdon" part. Kidlington will almost certainly be removed from the constituency in the next boundary review.

That seems unlikely - the boundary proposals actually added more territory north of Kidlington in the form of Kirtlington ward. It's rather doubtful that many Kidlington residents identify with Abingdon - their main ties are with Oxford, and to a much lesser extent Bicester. However, the inclusion of both in the same seat isn't that illogical, since the A34 provides a good (though congested) link between the two.

[Devil Wincarnate]

This seat still has two Con clubs as far as I know. Can't be many seats with more Con clubs than Conservative councillors.

[Deleted]

Apr 5, 2020 20:34:17 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

This seat still has two Con clubs as far as I know. Can't be many seats with more Con clubs than Conservative councillors.

There must be plenty of constituencies with more Conservative Associations than Tory Councilors. As we know in the distant past Liverpool was a Tory city. I believe the Liverpool Conservative Association has a fair bit of cash in the bank too.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 5, 2020 20:36:29 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Apr 5, 2020 20:34:17 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

This seat still has two Con clubs as far as I know. Can't be many seats with more Con clubs than Conservative councillors.

There must be plenty of constituencies with more Conservative Associations than Tory Councilors. As we know in the distant past Liverpool was a Tory city. I believe the Liverpool Conservative Association has a fair bit of cash in the bank too.

They tend to close down though, same with many social clubs and WMCs. Even Winchester doesn't have one anymore.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 5, 2020 20:25:38 GMT @abiezercoppe said:

Apr 5, 2020 20:06:08 GMT bjornhattan said:

That seems unlikely - the boundary proposals actually added more territory north of Kidlington in the form of Kirtlington ward. It's rather doubtful that many Kidlington residents identify with Abingdon - their main ties are with Oxford, and to a much lesser extent Bicester. However, the inclusion of both in the same seat isn't that illogical, since the A34 provides a good (though congested) link between the two.

If 650 members are retained, and Oxfordshire is allocated seven seats, I hope the commission would consider a more significant redrawing of the county’s constituency boundaries. For me, a Bicester and Oxford North seat would make more sense, particularly since the arrival of Oxford Parkway station. With the drastically growing electorate in Didcot, and other parts of South Oxfordshire and the Vale, it may just about be feasible to have a stand alone Abingdon seat. This is, of course, all dependent on newer electoral figures.

I had a quick look on Boundary Assistant and a seven seat Oxfordshire virtually draws itself. A Bicester and Oxford North seat forms really naturally (I have it including Woodstock, though this isn't strictly required and breaks the three district rule). Henley is another natural constituency - everything in South Oxfordshire east of the Thames.

Another great bonus is that Oxfordshire proper fits perfectly into five seats and "North Berkshire" (all areas west of the Thames plus Jericho to avoid a ward split in Oxford) fits into two seats. The former Berkshire area is a slightly awkward area to work with - you either need a seat stretching from Oxford to Faringdon or even Ashbury, or you have a seat running from Wallingford to Shrivenham. The latter looks nicer on a map, but the former makes a bit more sense thanks to the A420. But with that as the only possible exception, you have to actively try to make a bad seven seat plan for Oxfordshire. No doubt the commission would manage it!

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 16.7% 332/650
Owner-occupied 67.1% 314/650
Private rented 18.4% 158/650
Social rented 11.6% 512/650
White 90.0% 438
Black 1.4% 219
Asian 6.9% 207
Managerial & professional 42.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.1%
Degree level 43.4% 30/650
No qualifications 9.9% 607/650
Students 13.6% 74

2021 Census

Owner occupied 65.6% 296/573
Private rented 22.1% 159/573
Social rented 12.4% 406/573
White 84.9%
Black 1.8%
Asian 7.5%
Managerial & professional 44.4% 45/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.1% 507/573
Students 11.4% 72/573
Degree level 50.1% 36/573
No qualifications 11.8% 546/573





General election 2019: Oxford West and Abingdon

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Liberal Democrats Layla Moran 31,340 53.3 +9.5
Conservative James Fredrickson 22,397 38.1 -4.3
Labour Rosie Sourbut 4,258 7.2 -5.4
Brexit Party Allison Wild 829 1.4

LD Majority 8,943 15.2 +13.8

Turnout 58,824 76.4 -3.2

Liberal Democrats hold
Swing 6.9 C to LD

[gerrardwinstanley]

Following boundary changes for the 1983 general election, the seat of Oxford West and Abingdon was created, thus establishing a cross-Thames constituency. The seat was formed from the oversized constituencies of Oxford and Abingdon, taking in the north-western and north-eastern portions of these seats respectively. Since its formation, it has established itself as a Conservative-Liberal marginal. The seat has been represented by four Members of Parliament: two Conservative and two Liberal Democrat. Currently, Oxford West and Abingdon is represented by Layla Moran, a member of the latter party.

Covering an area straddling two historic countries – Abingdon being the former county town of Berkshire – the seat’s boundaries have changed relatively little since its creation. The most significant expansion of the constituency occurred at the 1997 general election, taking in Kidlington, a village which claims to be the largest in Europe. Now, only a small proportion of Oxford (it’s western and northern edges) fall within the seat – the city centre having been transferred to the neighbouring Oxford East in 2010. Thus, only a small minority of the University of Oxford’s colleges remain within the seat’s borders. Abingdon, a Thames-side market town, is then the seat’s principal settlement, with small-to-medium sized villages to its north and east included as well. The 2023 review of parliamentary constituencies initial proposals would restore the seat to something that is similar to its original boundaries, losing Kidlington but (re)gaining Oxford’s historic centre.

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, the political history of the seat has been one of marginality. The seat was originally won by John Patten in 1983, who had previously represented the former city of Oxford constituency. At this election, the SDP won a respectable proportion of the vote (33.3%), paving the way for the competition between the Conservative and the SDP’s successors, the Liberal Democrats, which has come to define this seat. During Labour’s 1997 landslide, the Liberal Democrats’ Evan Harris managed to gain the seat from Patten, which he held until 2010 when it was won back by Nicola Blackwood for the Conservatives. Blackwood, however, failed to retain the seat in 2017, when this Remain-leaning constituency backed the Liberal Democrats, thus leading to the election of the first Member of Parliament of Palestinian descent: Layla Moran.

Locally, the area has of late also been Liberal Democrat-leaning. As of the 2019 landslide election, the seat’s Vale of White Horse wards returned nearly a full slate of Liberal councillors – albeit for a Green councillor from the two-member Abingdon Abbey Northcourt ward – taking seats from the Conservatives. Indeed, in Abingdon and the surrounding villages there has been a strong LibDem presence for some time, but nevertheless the Conservatives have always been competitive, too. Recently, local Conservative success paralleled that of the Cameron (and coalition) government, when the Tories gained the district in 2011. Following the election of Boris Johnson, however, the tables have turned; the Liberal Democrats achieving renewed success here, particularly in the villages closest to Oxford, such as Botley and Cumnor, where they have historically been strongest. Labour’s fortunes and successes in this part of the constituency have, on the other hand, been somewhat unremarkable. In recent years, only one Labour councillor has been elected, that being in 2011 and for the ward of Abingdon Caldecott – the most deprived area of the town.

The Oxford areas (generally a Labour-leaning city) of this constituency also sway toward the Liberal Democrats. Within the city’s boundaries, the small village of Wolvercote has been a bedrock of LibDem support. Similarly, the upmarket area of Summertown has backed the “yellow team” in recent years, too. At the 2021 election, of the five Oxford wards that fall within the seat, the most northerly three all returned LibDem councillors, whereas the other two returned Labour ones. It should be noted, however, that due to recent local government boundary changes, the ward boundaries used to create the seat do not match those now in use. The Labour-voting areas within the seat are towards the city’s centre, including the trendy area of Jericho, beyond affluent Walton Manor, and more ordinary Osney/Botley Road. As noted before, proposed boundary changes will bring into the constituently Oxford city centre, which, like the areas referred to just before, also swings heavily to Labour. Of late, Kidlington, the village that makes up the most northerly part of the seat has had an interesting political history. Typically Tory-leaning, both the Liberal Democrats and Greens have achieved local success here recently; however, the Conservatives are still competitive, and Kidlington West is currently the only ward in the seat with a Conservative councillor.

Turning now to a profile of the seat, in the far south of the constituency lies Abingdon. Located on the River Thames, this market town has a long and colourful history, from its early medieval abbey destroyed by Henry VIII, to bun throwing and morris dancing, and producing one of the world’s most successful contemporary rock bands, Radiohead. Whilst perhaps not as affluent as other towns in the area, such as Henley and Wallingford, it is still relatively well off, particularly the areas close to Albert Park and Abingdon School. However, there are small pockets of deprivation, such as in the south of the town around Saxton Road. Once home to light industry – Morland brewery and the MG car company – the town’s industries now are primarily science-, research-, publishing-, and service-based. Consequently, the town’s adult populace (and the seat’s more generally) is heavily degree-educated; this is partially due to its proximity to Oxford as well as the previously EU-funded science operations JET at Culham and Rutherford Appleton Laboratory at Harwell. Such funding could also be a reason for the pro-EU tendencies within this area.

Moving northwards, the villages between Abingdon and Oxford are mostly medium-to-large in size. Perhaps unlike other parts of the Vale, which remain “unspoilt”, the villages here are slightly larger and a hodgepodge of historic centres/buildings with later add-ons, particularly from the 1970s. Moreover, many are growing further, with the building of new estates, thus following the significant housing growth that this area has seen of late. At current rates, it won’t be long till Abingdon and Oxford are joined together in a continuous sprawl of houses, connected by a line of villages. Some of these villages, such as Botley and Cumnor Hill, feel more like suburbs of Oxford than stand alone places. Too, Kennington is a substantial village, stretching right up to the southern edge of Oxford. There is, however, some attractive countryside here too, particularly around the hamlet of Boars Hill - made up of large Victorian villas, some of which have been occupied by famous residents in the past, and possessing fantastic views over Oxford's "dreaming spires". In the far west of the seat is Appleton, which is more reminiscent of the small picturesque villages that make up the rural Vale of White Horse. 

The areas of Oxford included in the seat are perhaps the most affluent in the city. Certainly, the areas along the Woodstock and Banbury Roads (the suburbs of Walton Manor, Park Town, and Norham Manor), just north of the city centre, are extremely wealthy – with its collection of huge Victorian detached houses, built in Italianate and Gothic Revival styles, some of which lie on the banks of the Cherwell. A part of the University Parks, including the cricket ground and impressive pavilion, also fall within the seat's boundaries; thus, it is possible to watch first-class cricket, and even occasionally international teams, within the constituency. Turning westwards, the village-like Jericho – once the city’s red light district – is now almost equally as expensive, but is made up of smaller terraced housing and home to Oxford University Press. To the northeast, Summertown is extremely middle class too, and like the areas due south of it, is made up of large (if not slightly smaller) Victorian semi-detached and terraced houses. Almost separate from Oxford but within the city’s boundaries, Wolvercote is a pleasant village with a handful of pubs; the village cemetery contains the grave of J.R.R. Tolkien, best known as the author of The Lord of the Rings. Stretching south from Wolvercote is the large common areas of Wolvercote Common and Port Meadow, nestled alongside the Thames, where horses and cows are left to graze freely. The western areas of Osney and along the Botley Road, like most of this part of the seat, are primarily made up of Victorian housing; here are many of Oxford's industrial and trading estates, too. Whilst still fairly affluent in character, compared to the north Oxford parts of this seat, it is less so. Finally, Kidlington is a large and not particularly attractive place, with an interesting historic centre but vast 1970s sprawl surrounding it. Recently, for reasons unknown, it has become a popular tourist destination for tourists from eastern Asia.

Returning to politics, the Liberal Democrats appear to have strengthened their position in the seat, particularly since 2019. Too, proposed boundaries will make it likely safer for them. The current Conservative government doesn’t match the more socially liberal-inclined politics that were successful here under Cameron. Thus, the seat is probably unlikely to change hands unless the Tories change themselves. Historically, the Labour vote at general election time has moved to the Liberal Democrats to keep the Conservatives out. However, with proposed boundary changes, it could become more interesting, making it less important for Labour voters to vote tactically and also the inclusion of the heavily Labour areas around the city centre. For the time being, however, Oxford West and Abingdon looks likely to remain Liberal Democrat.

[John Chanin]

What a good profile. That’s what they ought to be like.

[gerrardwinstanley]

Nov 16, 2021 14:14:08 GMT John Chanin said:

What a good profile. That’s what they ought to be like.

Thank you! It's all down to the cold that kept me up for a lot of last night, and this gave me the time to do something I had been meaning to do for a while. 

I'll continue to add a few details here and there, as I have already done, and fix any grammatical or factual errors that I find.

[YL]

The Boundary Commission's proposals, which give an extra seat to the county of Oxfordshire, adjust this constituency by returning Oxford city centre, transferred to Oxford East in 2010, to it, while removing Kidlington and making some relatively minor adjustments in the Vale of White Horse.

The loss of Oxford city centre in 2010 was generally believed to be decisive in the Conservative gain that year, and the reversal of that change will make it even harder for the Conservatives to win this seat back.