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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 7, 2023 14:14:00 GMT
Sefton Central is an awful name for the seat. Sefton Central is a truly excellent name for a seat that comprises the central portion of the Borough of Sefton, with nothing added or taken away.
The only negative is that Bootle and Southport aren't named Sefton South and Sefton North respectively, for consistency.
have you considered bringing back the 'smite' facility? |
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 7, 2023 14:15:18 GMT
Sefton Central is a truly excellent name for a seat that comprises the central portion of the Borough of Sefton, with nothing added or taken away.
The only negative is that Bootle and Southport aren't named Sefton South and Sefton North respectively, for consistency.
have you considered bringing back the 'smite' facility? Actually, I did consider it! Unfortunately, ProBoards no longer do it so you need to use a plug in, some of which apparently aren't very reliable. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2023 10:22:24 GMT
I note Ainsdale comes in from Southport. How would the new seat have voted in 2010? Still Labour, but by how much? With the new boundaries, this would still have been very safe in 1992.
2010 local election results, Ainsdale ward, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council:
Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome
Haydn Clive Preece Liberal Democrats 2936 47% Elected
Mark Bigley The Conservative Party 2703 43% Not elected
Stephen James Jowett The Labour Party 668 11% Not elected
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 29, 2023 11:32:06 GMT
I note Ainsdale comes in from Southport. How would the new seat have voted in 2010? Still Labour, but by how much? With the new boundaries, this would still have been very safe in 1992. 2010 local election results, Ainsdale ward, Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council: Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome Haydn Clive Preece Liberal Democrats 2936 47% Elected Mark Bigley The Conservative Party 2703 43% Not elected Stephen James Jowett The Labour Party 668 11% Not elected I've done some modelling based on demographics and this suggests that Ainsdale ward voted as follows in 2010: Con - 2,565 Lab - 543 LD - 3,380 UKIP - 372 (This actually seems remarkably plausible given the local election results - keeping in mind some UKIP voters will have been Conservative locally and any incumbency effects would have benefitted the Tories locally but the Lib Dems in the general) However, keep in mind there is another boundary change that will affect Sefton Central. Molyneux ward is being split with Aintree going into Liverpool Walton. The area being transferred is estimated to have been one of the stronger parts of Sefton Central for Labour: Con - 992 Lab - 2,082 LD - 641 UKIP - 155 So gaining Ainsdale reduces Labour's majority by about 2,000, and losing Aintree further reduces Labour's majority by about 1,000. If my estimates are correct, the new seat would have voted: Con - 18,018 Lab - 18,768 LD - 12,395 UKIP - 2,272 (Lab majority 750) In practice, Labour would probably have won by slightly more had those new boundaries actually existed. We have seen Southport's Labour vote surge in recent years and while some of this is down to incomers from Liverpool, much of it is just because the dynamics of the seat have changed into one where Labour are the second party. Ainsdale is a bit more Conservative than Southport as a whole (for instance the ward is estimated to have had a Conservative majority of 15% in 2019 versus 9% in the constituency) but does have areas where you'd expect Labour to do well. In particular, eastern Ainsdale has the biggest concentration of social housing in Southport and a younger population than the town as a whole. So if the ward had found itself in a Conservative-Labour marginal in 2010, I imagine the Labour vote would have been more like 20-25% than 7.9%. This would likely increase the Labour majority on the new boundaries to around 1,500. |
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