YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Apr 12, 2020 6:35:40 GMT
Most of those are highly socially polarised in one way or another (sometimes in multiple ways). The thing about Sefton Central, is that if it were anywhere else not only would Labour not be winning at all, but they would have been blown out of the water in recent elections: Aldridge-Brownhills, though not a perfect analogue, is a broadly comparable constituency in certain respects, and, well... Aldridge-Brownhills had only 20.5% of the population over 16 having higher education qualifications in the 2011 census, well below the UK average (27.0%). Sefton Central had 29.4%, which was still well below all the other middle class Labour seats mentioned by heslingtonian except for Canterbury (which was similar). |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
|
Post by Sibboleth on Apr 12, 2020 11:56:55 GMT
Aldridge-Brownhills had only 20.5% of the population over 16 having higher education qualifications in the 2011 census, well below the UK average (27.0%). Sefton Central had 29.4%, which was still well below all the other middle class Labour seats mentioned by heslingtonian except for Canterbury (which was similar). Yes, it isn't a perfect analogue, though a lot of the differences reflect differences between the economic bases of their respective conurbations. But it's a provincial constituency that is solidly humdrum middle suburbia both geographically and sociologically; there are surprisingly few of these, as such areas tend to be cut up between other constituencies - a fact that has been Bad News for Labour over the past decade, to say the least. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 19:53:39 GMT
Tynemouth, though a marginal before 1997, is a good comparison with this seat.
Coastal, good quality suburban housing, high elderly population, and fairly solid Labour wins in recent years.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 20:03:59 GMT
Quite a few middle class Labour seats: Sheffield Hallam, Putney, Hampstead & Kilburn, Ealing Central & Acton, Canterbury, Cambridge, Hove all spring to mind as quite affluent seats. Other middle class Labour seats include Cardiff North, Enfield Southgate, Wirral South and Wirral West. Bristol North West springs to mind but its very polarised between Avonmouth and Stoke Bishop. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Apr 13, 2020 13:18:10 GMT
Birmingham Edgbaston would be another, famously the first Labour gain of 1997, though as Barnard Marder says above, that isn't actually true. It's remarkable that Edgbaston is still Labour when West Brom West, for example, is Tory.
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Apr 13, 2020 18:00:56 GMT
So, is this Labour's most middle-class seat? It is not unreasonable to think that if this seat was in Hertforshire it would be true-blue. But it isn't. This is essentially Liverpool suburbia, and its political preferences, like the bulk of the Liverpool city region, remain those of the Labour party. Well there is middle class and middle class, and the high education university towns and inner city seats mentioned by others are a different kettle of fish. The only really comparable seat I think is Wirral West. London with its low levels of owner-occupation and car ownership, and its general retention of significant amounts of social housing, not to speak of its different occupational structure, is really not comparable. Southgate is the closest equivalent (profile to come later this week). Suburban seats as well off as this one outside London are universally Conservative. I haven’t checked the census data, but Sibboleth ‘s nomination of Aldridge-Brownhills as the closest social equivalent in Greater Birmingham looks about right. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Apr 13, 2020 18:11:29 GMT
So, is this Labour's most middle-class seat? It is not unreasonable to think that if this seat was in Hertforshire it would be true-blue. But it isn't. This is essentially Liverpool suburbia, and its political preferences, like the bulk of the Liverpool city region, remain those of the Labour party. Well there is middle class and middle class, and the high education university towns and inner city seats mentioned by others are a different kettle of fish. The only really comparable seat I think is Wirral West. London with its low levels of owner-occupation and car ownership, and its general retention of significant amounts of social housing, not to speak of its different occupational structure, is really not comparable. Southgate is the closest equivalent (profile to come later this week). Suburban seats as well off as this one outside London are universally Conservative. I haven’t checked the census data, but Sibboleth ‘s nomination of Aldridge-Brownhills as the closest social equivalent in Greater Birmingham looks about right. I wouldn't say universally Conservative. Tynemouth is probably in a similar bracket to this constituency (and is much more middle class than Aldridge-Brownhills), but is a fairly safe Labour seat nowadays. Even if you remove Chirton ward (which is far more deprived than the rest of the constituency), it would still be Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 13, 2020 18:16:35 GMT
So, is this Labour's most middle-class seat? It is not unreasonable to think that if this seat was in Hertforshire it would be true-blue. But it isn't. This is essentially Liverpool suburbia, and its political preferences, like the bulk of the Liverpool city region, remain those of the Labour party. Well there is middle class and middle class, and the high education university towns and inner city seats mentioned by others are a different kettle of fish. The only really comparable seat I think is Wirral West. London with its low levels of owner-occupation and car ownership, and its general retention of significant amounts of social housing, not to speak of its different occupational structure, is really not comparable. Southgate is the closest equivalent (profile to come later this week). Suburban seats as well off as this one outside London are universally Conservative. I haven’t checked the census data, but Sibboleth ‘s nomination of Aldridge-Brownhills as the closest social equivalent in Greater Birmingham looks about right. It's actually closer to Solihull and even Sutton Coldfield on the educational and occupation data |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Apr 13, 2020 18:20:27 GMT
Well there is middle class and middle class, and the high education university towns and inner city seats mentioned by others are a different kettle of fish. The only really comparable seat I think is Wirral West. London with its low levels of owner-occupation and car ownership, and its general retention of significant amounts of social housing, not to speak of its different occupational structure, is really not comparable. Southgate is the closest equivalent (profile to come later this week). Suburban seats as well off as this one outside London are universally Conservative. I haven’t checked the census data, but Sibboleth ‘s nomination of Aldridge-Brownhills as the closest social equivalent in Greater Birmingham looks about right. It's actually closer to Solihull and even Sutton Coldfield on the educational and occupation data I should have checked! |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,417
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 13, 2020 18:45:15 GMT
I think Solihull is a good comparison. Which makes the politics even more interesting!
|
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Apr 13, 2020 18:50:35 GMT
Is the key thing not so much whether a seat is middle class, but whether it is predominantly private sector middle class or public sector middle class? That might be part of the explanation of the difference in political behaviour between Aldridge Brownhills and Solihull (can't be the quality of Lib Dem candidates surely?). I always assumed that was part of the difference between the behaviour of the SW London seats, and the Surrey ones just across the border
|
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 24, 2020 23:45:03 GMT
Quite a few middle class Labour seats: Sheffield Hallam, Putney, Hampstead & Kilburn, Ealing Central & Acton, Canterbury, Cambridge, Hove all spring to mind as quite affluent seats. Other middle class Labour seats include Cardiff North, Enfield Southgate, Wirral South and Wirral West. Bristol North West springs to mind but its very polarised between Avonmouth and Stoke Bishop. I would say my home seat Reading East deserves a mention. The parts of Reading itself are working class but my home town Caversham is very much middle class,having a ward which is half a suburb full of millionaires (Caversham Heights)that very nearly voted Labour in 2017 and Woodley is also very middle class. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,417
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 25, 2020 8:07:15 GMT
Other middle class Labour seats include Cardiff North, Enfield Southgate, Wirral South and Wirral West. Bristol North West springs to mind but its very polarised between Avonmouth and Stoke Bishop. I would say my home seat Reading East deserves a mention. The parts of Reading itself are working class but my home town Caversham is very much middle class,having a ward which is half a suburb full of millionaires (Caversham Heights)that very nearly voted Labour in 2017 and Woodley is also very middle class. Why not try a write up of the Reading seats? |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 25, 2020 12:33:59 GMT
I would say my home seat Reading East deserves a mention. The parts of Reading itself are working class but my home town Caversham is very much middle class,having a ward which is half a suburb full of millionaires (Caversham Heights)that very nearly voted Labour in 2017 and Woodley is also very middle class. Why not try a write up of the Reading seats? I may do but people would complain because it will probably be hideously biased. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2020 18:54:42 GMT
Why not try a write up of the Reading seats? I may do but people would complain because it will probably be hideously biased. Just be extra careful to steer clear of opinions, unless things like "X candidate lost because of bad campaign organisation" that both sides would agree on. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 27, 2020 12:44:34 GMT
I may do but people would complain because it will probably be hideously biased. Just be extra careful to steer clear of opinions, unless things like "X candidate lost because of bad campaign organisation" that both sides would agree on. See,that's the issue.😂 |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2020 14:44:49 GMT
Just be extra careful to steer clear of opinions, unless things like "X candidate lost because of bad campaign organisation" that both sides would agree on. See,that's the issue.😂 OK, so write the piece and then surgically remove anything that isn't fact. You can send your profile to me here or on Facebook and I'll have a look if you like? |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Apr 22, 2021 9:55:41 GMT
The demographics here really reinforce the points made above about the remarkable electoral politics of this seat, which I would most of all ascribe to the 'Merseyside effect'.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 24.1% 19/650
Owner-occupied 85.5% 2/650
Private rented 7.3% 643/650
Social rented 6.0% 648/650
White 98.1% 100/650
Black 0.2% 549/650
Asian 0.8% 574/650
Christian 81.1% 2/650
Managerial & professional 36.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0%
Retired 20.2% 15/650
Degree level 29.4% 206/650
No qualifications 21.2% 401/650
Students 7.4% 259/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 83.2% 1/573
Private rented 10.2% 573/573
Social rented 6.6% 569/573
White 97.2%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.0 %
Christian 70.3% 1/650
Managerial & professional 38.9% 125/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 450/573
Degree level 35.0% 202/573
No qualifications 16.4% 363/573
General Election 2019: Sefton Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Bill Esterson 29,254 57.5 –5.5
Conservative Wazz Mughal 14,132 27.8 –5.2
Liberal Democrats Keith Cawdron 3,386 6.7 +4.0
Brexit Party Paul Lomas 2,425 4.8
Green Alison Gibbon 1,261 2.5 +1.2
Liberal Angela Preston 285 0.6
Renew Carla Burns 137 0.3
Lab Majority 15,122 29.7 –0.3
Turnout 50,880 72.9 –2.6
Labour hold
Swing 0.1 Lab to C
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 17, 2022 6:37:45 GMT
Boundary changes remove the Aintree area (part of Molyneuax ward) and add the Ainsdale ward from Southport. Aintree will have been strongly Labour while Ainsdale is one of the better Conservative wards in Southport so the notional majority is reduced by a fair bit without making the seat marginal 2019 Notional result | Lab | 29285 | 53.9% | | Con | 17392 | 32.0% | | LD | 3947 | 7.3% | | BxP | 2150 | 4.0% | | Grn | 1173 | 2.2% | | Oth | 395 | 0.7% |
| | | | Majority | 11893 | 21.9% |
|
|
sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
|
Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 7, 2023 1:07:48 GMT
Sefton Central is an awful name for the seat.
Sefton Central is a truly excellent name for a seat that comprises the central portion of the Borough of Sefton, with nothing added or taken away.
The only negative is that Bootle and Southport aren't named Sefton South and Sefton North respectively, for consistency.
|
|
