Hexham

[greenhert]

Hexham as a constituency was created in 1885, although a Hexhamshire constituency covering a similar area existed until Tudor times, since until 1572 Hexhamshire was a Liberty in its own right separate from Northumberland.

Hexham is geographically one of the largest seats in England and traverses the famous Hadrian's Wall. Its notable landmarks are Kielder Forest, the largest artificial forest in England, and Kielder Water, the largest inland lake in England. It is arguably the most affluent seat in the North East, and is becoming popular with Newcastle-upon-Tyne commuters looking to get some space in the countryside. 

Hexham has been a Conservative seat since 1924 (including Douglas Clifton-Brown's tenure as Speaker of the House of Commons) and is the only safe Conservative seat in North East England, although Labour were just 222 votes away from capturing it in their 1997 landslide. Douglas Clifton-Brown, MP for this seat from 1918-23 and 1924-51, served as Speaker for 8 years and was the great-great-uncle of current Conservative MP Geoffrey (Robert) Clifton-Brown. Geoffrey Ripon (later Baron Rippon of Hexham) who sat for this seat from 1970-87 was the architect of the European Communities Act, which took Britain into what was then the EEC (Britain left its successor, the EU, 47 years later as we all know). He was succeeded by Alan Amos, who stood down after only one term following an allegation of indecency against him; Mr Amos later joined Labour but rejoined the Conservatives later, serving briefly as Mayor of Worcester.  The current MP is Guy Opperman.

[bjornhattan]

It might be worth noting the geographical diversity of the constituency. While it is affluent overall, it isn't monolithically so, and Labour have a substantial core vote in Prudhoe, Haltwhistle and parts of Hexham. This is likely weaker now (Labour will have only carried Prudhoe South and maybe Prudhoe North in the general election - Haltwhistle might not have even been close), but it isn't that surprising that Labour were just 222 votes short in 1997.

[belvoir]

Query, was Hexhamshire separately represented in pre-Elizabethan Parliaments?

[jamie]

Apr 4, 2020 13:33:21 GMT bjornhattan said:

It might be worth noting the geographical diversity of the constituency.

I’ll get round here eventually 😜

[greenhert]

Apr 4, 2020 14:58:06 GMT @barnabymarder said:

What relation was Douglas Clifton-Brown to the former (not the present) Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, MP for Bury St Edmunds? And does anyone know what relation the 2 Ian Orr-Ewings were to each other? (There are Orr-Ewings living in Mortlake today.)

Douglas Clifton-Brown was one of the uncles of Geoffrey (Benedict) Clifton-Brown.

[finsobruce]

Apr 4, 2020 14:58:06 GMT @barnabymarder said:

 And does anyone know what relation the 2 Ian Orr-Ewings were to each other? (There are Orr-Ewings living in Mortlake today.)

Ian Leslie Orr-Ewing MP for Weston Super Mare (1934-58) was the son of...

Charles Lindsay Orr-Ewing MP for Ayr Burghs (1895-1904) who was the son of...

Sir Archibald Orr-Ewing MP for Dunbartonshire (1868-92).

Ian Orr-Ewing MP for Hendon North (1950-70) was a great grandson of Sir Archibald, so...

[neilm]

Apr 4, 2020 13:47:54 GMT belvoir said:

Query, was Hexhamshire separately represented in pre-Elizabethan Parliaments?

Wasn't Hexhamshire (despite being very small) divided into specifically named areas, like Ridings or Parts? Not hundreds, it was definitely something else.

[finsobruce]

Apr 5, 2020 6:54:16 GMT neilm said:

Apr 4, 2020 13:47:54 GMT belvoir said:

Query, was Hexhamshire separately represented in pre-Elizabethan Parliaments?

Wasn't Hexhamshire (despite being very small) divided into specifically named areas, like Ridings or Parts? Not hundreds, it was definitely something else.

High, Middle, Low and West Quarters

[jamie]

Hexham

Hexham constituency covers a large stretch of south western Northumberland and is one of the geographically largest constituencies in the UK. It also has one of the smallest electorates in England. The constituency is centred on the market town of Hexham. It also includes numerous farming villages, former mining towns, and wealthy Newcastle upon Tyne commuter belt. Throughout the post-war period, Hexham has been held by the Conservatives. While not always with the largest of majorities, it was comfortably held by the Conservatives from 1945-1992. However, in the 1997 Labour landslide, the majority was cut to only 0.2%. Nonetheless, the majority grew from 2001 onwards and the Liberal Democrats took 2nd place in 2010. Labour retook 2nd place in 2015 and their vote rose by 10% in 2017, though the Conservative majority was still 20%. The Conservative majority rose by a modest 3% in the 2019 Conservative landslide. As a consequence, this is, on universal national swing, a seat which Labour would be expected to win if they achieved an overall majority.

Starting in the east, we find the town of Ponteland. Just outside Newcastle upon Tyne, and close to its airport, Ponteland has become a major commuter town and houses Tyneside’s wealthiest residents. This is also true to a large extent for the more rural areas surrounding Ponteland such as Stannington and Stamfordham. Owing to this wealth, Ponteland has long been a Conservative bastion. The Conservative lead in council elections here, when the other parties even bother to contest seats in the area, is among the largest in the entire North East. While Labour is able to do well with middle class residents within Newcastle upon Tyne, this stops abruptly once you reach Ponteland. The Conservative lead will have shrunk significantly here in 2017 and probably still more in 2019 owing to its strong remain vote, but Labour are unlikely to be remotely competitive here anytime soon.

Further west, the constituency takes in a large expanse of rural Northumberland. The constituency stretches all the way to Kielder Water at the Scottish border, but most of the population here, such as there is any, is found on the banks of the river North Tyne further away from the Scottish border. These communities include Bellingham at the northern end all the way down to Humshaugh just outside Hexham. The economy here has traditionally been dominated by agriculture, but tourism is also increasingly important. As would be expected from a farming area, the Conservatives poll strongly here and face little challenge to their dominance anytime soon.

Heading south, we find more rural communities situated along the river South Tyne and its tributaries. In the north are the more middle class and farming orientated communities. These areas vote comfortably Conservative nationally. There is also parts of Hadrian’s Wall situated around here which has helped dncourage more tourism in the area. In sharp contrast is the town of Haltwhistle. A former coal mining town, Haltwhistle is arguably the most industrial area of the constituency and has significant deprivation. As a consequence, it is far more Labour voting than nearby communities and will have voted for them in 2017 and perhaps even 2019. Further south, we find a collection of small former mining communities such as Allendale. While the mines, mostly lead mines, largely closed down by the start of the 20th century, these areas suffer from relatively high deprivation and as a consequence have a surprisingly high minority Labour vote for what is a very rural and isolated area. Nonetheless, they still vote comfortably Conservative, albeit not as heavily as middle class villages to the east such as Slaley.

We now reach the centre of the constituency which is anchored by Hexham itself. Hexham is a market town and also a major manufacturer of leather products. While the town gives its name to the constituency, it is now of similar size to Ponteland. The town is the most socially mixed settlement in the constituency. Western Hexham as well as parts of eastern Hexham are very middle class. Conversely, part of eastern Hexham as well as the town centre are more deprived. This is largely reflected in voting patterns with the Conservatives well ahead in western Hexham, comfortably ahead in eastern Hexham, but Labour much more competitive in the town centre. Immediately adjacent to Hexham is Acomb. A former coal mining village, it is much more Labour inclined than Hexham itself and will have voted comfortably Labour in 2017 and probably 2019.

Finally, the constituency takes in a collection of villages and small towns situated between Hexham and Tyneside. In the west is the village of Corbridge as well as Riding Mill and Stocksfield. These villages have long been middle class commuter belt for Tyneside and are comfortably, though not overwhelmingly, Conservative voting. In contrast, the communities east of Stocksfield are much more Labour inclined. These communities were traditionally much more reliant on coal mining and as a consequence have more in common both politically and demographically with neighbouring Blaydon constituency than they do with the rest of Hexham constituency. Prudhoe is the largest town and voted comfortably Labour in 2017, although it will have been closer in 2019. Labour is strongest on the West Wylam estate while weaker in some of the more recent housing developments. Strong Labour support can also be found in Ovington and to a lesser extent Mickley. Sharp contrast is provided by the affluent commuter villages of Wylam and Heddon. While both have much more distant coal mining history than Prudhoe, Wylam still appears to lean Labour while Heddon is much more Conservative inclined.

Overall, Hexham constituency has long been Conservative held but not necessarily with the largest of vote shares. In recent years, the Labour Party have established a clear but distant 2nd place. The Conservatives are strongest in wealthy commuter belt such as Ponteland and Corbridge as well as reasonably well-off farming villages in the northern part of the constituency. Conversely, Labour are stronger in former mining areas such as Prudhoe and Haltwhistle, as well as parts of Hexham. Even though Hexham has a large Conservative majority, this is on paper a seat Labour need to win in order to achieve an overall majority. Despite this, it is difficult to envisage Labour actually winning the constituency. Hexham is naturally a Conservative orientated area thanks to its wealth and largely rural nature, and Labour already significantly overperform the demographics. It remains to be seen how much closer Labour can come, even in a much better national environment.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 25, 2020 16:14:28 GMT jamie said:

Hexham

Hexham constituency covers a large stretch of south western Northumberland. The constituency is centred on the market town of Hexham. It also includes numerous farming villages, former mining towns, and wealthy Newcastle upon Tyne commuter belt. Throughout the post-war period Hexham has been regarded as a safe Conservative seat. While not always with the largest of majorities, it was comfortably held by the Conservatives from 1945-1992. However, in the 1997 Labour landslide, the majority was cut to only 0.2%. Nonetheless, the majority grew from 2001 onwards and the Liberal Democrats took 2nd place in 2010. Labour retook 2nd place in 2015 and their vote rose by 10% in 2017, though the Conservative majority was still 20%. The Conservative majority rose by a modest 3% in the 2019 Conservative landslide. As a consequence, this is, on universal national swing, a seat which Labour would be expected to win if they achieved an overall majority.

Starting in the east, we find the town of Ponteland. Just outside Newcastle upon Tyne, and close to its airport, Ponteland has become a major commuter town and houses Tyneside’s wealthiest residents. This is also true to a large extent for the more rural areas surrounding Ponteland such as Stannington and Stamfordham. Owing to this wealth, Ponteland has long been a Conservative bastion. The Conservative lead in council elections here, when the other parties even bother to contest seats in the area, is among the largest in the entire North East. While Labour is able to do well with middle class residents within Newcastle upon Tyne, this stops abruptly once you reach Ponteland. The Conservative lead will have shrunk significantly here in 2017 and probably still more in 2019 owing to its strong remain vote, but Labour are unlikely to be remotely competitive here anytime soon.

Further west, the constituency takes in a large expanse of rural Northumberland. The constituency stretches all the way to Kielder Water at the Scottish border, but most of the population here is found on the banks of the river North Tyne. These communities include Bellingham at the northern end all the way down to Humshaugh just outside Hexham. The economy here has traditionally been dominated by agriculture, but tourism is also increasingly important. As would be expected from a farming area, the Conservatives poll strongly here and face little challenge to their dominance anytime soon.

Heading south, we find more rural communities situated along the river South Tyne and its tributaries. In the north are the more middle class and farming orientated communities. These areas vote comfortably Conservative nationally. In sharp contrast is the town of Haltwhistle. A former coal mining town, Haltwhistle is the most industrial area of the constituency and has significant deprivation. As a consequence, it is far more Labour voting than nearby communities and will have voted for them in 2017 and perhaps even 2019. Further south, we find a collection of small former mining communities such as Allendale. While the mines, mostly lead mines, largely closed down by the start of the 20th century, these areas suffer from relatively high deprivation and as a consequence have a surprisingly high minority Labour vote for what is a very rural and isolated area. Nonetheless, they still vote comfortably Conservative, as do the nearby middle class small villages such as Slaley.

We now reach the centre of the constituency which is anchored by Hexham itself. Hexham is a market town and also a major manufacturer of leather products. While the town gives its name to the constituency, it is now of similar size to Ponteland. The town is the most socially mixed settlement in the constituency. Western Hexham as well as parts of eastern Hexham are very middle class. Conversely, part of eastern Hexham and as well as the town centre are more deprived. This is largely reflected in voting patterns with the Conservatives well ahead in western Hexham, comfortably ahead in eastern Hexham, but Labour much more competitive in the town centre. Immediately adjacent to Hexham is Acomb. A former coal mining village, it is much more Labour inclined than Hexham itself and will have voted comfortably Labour in 2017 and probably 2019.

Finally, the constituency takes in a collection of villages and small towns situated between Hexham and Tyneside. In the west is the village of Corbridge as well as Riding Mill and Stocksfield. These villages have long been middle class commuter belt for Tyneside and are comfortably if not completely overwhelmingly Conservative voting. In contrast, the communities east of Stocksfield are much more Labour inclined. These communities were traditionally much more reliant on coal mining and as a consequence have more in common both politically and demographically with neighbouring Blaydon constituency than they do with the rest of Hexham constituency. Prudhoe is the largest town and voted comfortably Labour in 2017, although it will have been closer in 2019. Strong Labour support can also be found in Ovington and to a lesser extent Mickley. Sharp contrast is provided by the affluent commuter villages of Wylam and Heddon. While both have much more distant coal mining history than Prudhoe, Wylam still appears to lean Labour while Heddon is much more Conservative inclined.

Overall, Hexham constituency has long been Conservative held but not necessarily with the largest of vote shares. In recent years, the Labour Party have established a clear but distant 2nd place. The Conservatives are strongest in wealthy commuter belt such as Ponteland and Corbridge as well as reasonably well-off farming villages in the northern part of the constituency. Conversely, Labour are stronger in former mining areas such as Prudhoe and Haltwhistle, as well as parts of Hexham. Even though Hexham has a large Conservative majority, this is on paper a seat Labour need to win in order to achieve an overall majority. Despite this, it is difficult to envisage Labour actually winning the constituency. Hexham is naturally a Conservative orientated area thanks to its wealth and largely rural nature, and Labour already significantly overperform the demographics. It remains to be seen how much closer Labour can come, even in a much better national environment.

That's an excellent profile - when I saw your posts in the "Ask the Forum" thread I suspected that you were about to do this seat and I wasn't disappointed. I just have a couple of minor points.

I would argue Haltwhistle isn't the most industrial part of the seat - that would probably be Prudhoe. The most obvious example is the massive toilet roll factory, but almost all of the area between the northern bypass and the railway is given over to industry. While we're in the area, parts of Prudhoe are undergoing demographic change with a growing number of commuters - the largest example would be the affluent Castlefields estate but there are pockets of new housing going up all over town. The West Wylam estate is perhaps even grimmer than your description though, definitely not at all like its namesake.

It might also be worth mentioning is Hadrian's Wall, which brings in a large number of tourists and can still be seen in much of the west of the seat. The wall partially lends its name to Haydon and Hadrian ward, which I think is a little more interesting than you give it credit for - Haydon Bridge has pockets of deprivation and the ward as a whole is a microcosm of the constituency. I would imagine for Labour to win across Hexham they would need to be ahead in Haydon and Hadrian.

I do realise there's only so much you can mention, and it's hard to do a constituency as heterogeneous as this justice - so well done again on a brilliant job!

[bjornhattan]

Apr 25, 2020 17:50:00 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning just how vast and almost uninhabited large swathes of the north of the constituency are. I can only presume that such voters as there are are heavily predominantly Conservative.

Indeed. Bellingham ward in particular is incredibly huge. While its area is over half that of Greater London, its population is less than one two-thousandth of London. The population density there is comparable to the Highlands, or some of the most rural parts of North America.

[jamie]

bjornhattan Thanks for the compliments. That’s a fair point on Haltwhistle. I was thinking with regards to it’s coal mining, lead mining and manufacturing history, compared to Prudhoe’s more commuter based economy now, but it’s certainly debatable. I’ve added a quick bit on the vote distribution in Prudhoe, although it should be noted that Prudhoe’s LSOAs are quite clustered around average deprivation so there won’t be too much variance between different parts of the town. Interesting comment on Haydon and Hadrian. With the caveat of the strong Lib Dem local vote, I have it down as somewhat more Conservative than the constituency as a whole. I agree that Haydon Bridge is rather average for Labour, but I suspect the rest of the ward will be quite a bit better for the Conservatives, particularly the small villages out west. All that said, this is definitely one of the constituencies where we are to a large extent flying blind as council election results are not very reliable indicators of support (Labour usually underperform, personal votes etc) so either one of us could honestly be right 😅😅

[No Offence Alan]

Apr 25, 2020 17:50:00 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning just how vast and almost uninhabited large swathes of the north of the constituency are. I can only presume that such voters as there are are heavily predominantly Conservative.

Park rangers and the like would probably be Green.

[jamie]

Apr 25, 2020 17:50:00 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning just how vast and almost uninhabited large swathes of the north of the constituency are. I can only presume that such voters as there are are heavily predominantly Conservative.

I did include a reference to the population being centred on the North Tyne, but have added a clarification. As someone brought up nearby, it does surprise me how rural people consider the area to be. I probably just have a very narrow definition of rural tbf. 

[jamie]

Apr 25, 2020 18:21:50 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Apr 25, 2020 17:50:00 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning just how vast and almost uninhabited large swathes of the north of the constituency are. I can only presume that such voters as there are are heavily predominantly Conservative.

Park rangers and the like would probably be Green.

You joke, but the rural north is by far the strongest area for the Greens and they came comfortably 2nd in Bellingham and Humshaugh wards in the 2017 council elections. 

[bjornhattan]

Apr 25, 2020 18:21:50 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Apr 25, 2020 17:50:00 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning just how vast and almost uninhabited large swathes of the north of the constituency are. I can only presume that such voters as there are are heavily predominantly Conservative.

Park rangers and the like would probably be Green.

And those brought to the area by the beauty of the natural landscape will be more Green-inclined than average. Concrete evidence even seems to bear this out! While there are many caveats involved when looking at local election results, but the Greens got a solid 24% in Bellingham ward (the Conservatives easily won with 67%, but Labour got just 9%).

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 22.0% 56/650
Owner-occupied 70.7% 196/650
Private rented 13.8% 343/650
Social rented 12.7% 451/650
White 98.0% 115/650
Black 0.1% 635/650
Asian 1.2% 475/650
Managerial & professional 39.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.9%
Degree level 35.9% 84/650
No qualifications 18.7% 510/650
Students 5.9% 500/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 71.8% 123/573
Private rented 15.7% 398/573
Social rented 12.5% 402/573
White 97.0%
Black 0.2%
Asian 1.6%
Managerial & professional 39.7% 109/573
Routine & Semi-routine 19.2% 442/573
Degree level 40.0% 102/573
No qualifications 14.3% 465/573






General Election 2019: Hexham

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Guy Opperman 25,152 54.5 +0.4
Labour Penny Grennan 14,603 31.6 -2.5
Liberal Democrats Stephen Howse 4,672 10.1 +3.0
Green Nick Morphet 1,723 3.7 +1.0

C Majority 10,549 22.9 +2.9

Turnout 46,150 75.3 +0.2

Conservative hold

Swing 1.5 Lab to C

[john07]

Apr 25, 2020 18:21:50 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Apr 25, 2020 17:50:00 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Might be worth mentioning just how vast and almost uninhabited large swathes of the north of the constituency are. I can only presume that such voters as there are are heavily predominantly Conservative.

Park rangers and the like would probably be Green.

Most of the Park Rangers I have ecountered are Queens!

[Clark]

Didn't realise how strongly Tory Ponteland was until I saw some recent local election results

[bjornhattan]

Apr 25, 2020 18:25:28 GMT jamie said:

Apr 25, 2020 18:21:50 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Park rangers and the like would probably be Green.

You joke, but the rural north is by far the strongest area for the Greens and they came comfortably 2nd in Bellingham and Humshaugh wards in the 2017 council elections. 

And a year after you wrote this, Humshaugh voted in one of Northumberland's first Green councillors!