Dover

[hullenedge]

Apr 6, 2020 18:16:39 GMT bjornhattan said:

Apr 6, 2020 17:44:51 GMT jamie said:

Probably worth mentioning the coal mining history of parts of the constituency. Western Deal housed many coal miners and the Aylesham/Eythorne area is rather unusual being a rather rural area in the south that was heavily dependent on coal mining.

The old Aylesham ward routinely gave Labour 70% of the vote at a local level, while Eythorne and Sheperdswell tended to be a fairly close marginal (looking at demographics the former will have been Labour but less so than Aylesham, the latter would have been very Conservative).

In 2019 the two wards merged, and the only result there so far was astonishingly close, and rather complicated. There were seven candidates for three seats. Three were incumbents: a Labour councillor for Aylesham, a Conservative councillor for Eythorne, and an Independent councillor for Eythorne (elected as Labour but suspended). Labour also put up their losing 2015 candidate from Eythorne, and their losing 2015 candidate from Town and Pier. The last two candidates were a new Conservative and a Liberal Democrat (only two Conservatives).

In the end the incumbent Labour candidate from Aylesham won handily with 997 votes. However there was a virtual tie for second - the former losing candidate for Eythorne got in this time with 915 votes, the Independent managed 914, and the Conservative incumbent 908. The other candidates were further back - Labour's candidate from Town and Pier got 872, the other Conservative got 786, and the Lib Dem managed a very respectable 450.

No doubt that was a nerve wracking count!

One of my former colleagues was a losing candidate here. We called him The Master...

[jamie]

Apr 6, 2020 17:56:55 GMT yellowperil said:

Absolutely. I have already referred to both to Aylesham as being a mining centre and to there being a lot of ex-miners in western Deal- it was already there in the text, which for the moment I haven't changed. If you think that needs beefing up futher maybe we could find a way of doing so- it certainly has a lot to do with why Dover constituency still has a substantial Labour vote

Apologies, I missed the line about coal mining in the original post and then the significant update later in the thread. Great summary. 

[yellowperil]

Apr 23, 2020 15:47:29 GMT yellowperil said:

Some extra statistics going here:

Census 2011
Ethnicity
White 96.6% (SE 90.7, UK 87.2)
Asian 1.9% (SE 5.2, UK 6.9)
Mixed 0.9% (SE 1.9UK 0.4, UK 2.0)
Black 0.4%(SE 1.6, UK3.0)
Other 0.2% (SE 0.6,UK 0.9)

2019/20
In Employment  73.0% (SE 79.5, GB 78.9)
Employed 63.6% (SE 66.7%, GB 64.6)
Self employed# (SE 3.0, GB3.9) #=too small to be shown!
 by occupational group:
Managers, directors, senior officials  14.3 % (SE 13.3. GB 11.4)
Professional occupations 16.7% (SE 22.8, GB 22.1)
Elementary occupations 11.9% (SE 8.5, GB 10.3)
Qualifications
NVQ4+  30.7% (SE 43.4, GB 40.)

Earnings ftw £607.4 (SE 636.0, GB 587.0)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Charlie Elphicke convicted on three counts.

[Andrew_S]

[Strontium Dog]

The implication being, if the court had come to a different decision, she would stay with him?

[greenhert]

Jul 30, 2020 12:05:38 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Charlie Elphicke convicted on three counts.

Confirmed: www.lbcnews.co.uk/uk-news/ex-tory-mp-charlie-elphicke-found-guilty-on-three-counts-of-sexual-assault/

He has basically no chance of avoiding a prison sentence.

[Wisconsin]

Sentenced to two years.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 19.8% 140/650
Owner-occupied 65.9% 358/650
Private rented 17.5% 185/650
Social rented 14.6 % 369/650
White 96.6% 261/650
Black 0.4% 435/650
Asian 1.9% 367/650
Managerial & professional 27.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.3%
Employed in transport & storage 10.7% 6/650
Caring, leisure and other service occupations 13.3% 4/650
Degree level 20.7% 484/650
No qualifications 25.5% 232/650
Students 6.2% 440/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 66.0% 286/573
Private rented 19.6% 218/573
Social rented 14.3% 322/573
White 94.7%
Black 0.8%
Asian 2.2%
Managerial & professional 29.6% 355/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.4% 199/573
Degree level 25.8% 461/573
No qualifications 19.9% 198/573

[Pete Whitehead]

The only change proposed to Dover is to realign with new ward boundaries and to change the name to Dover & Deal (as the seat was known from 1974-83). This involves the addition of around 600 voters in the village of Worth from South Thanet

2019 Notional Result - Dover & Deal

Con	29068	56.9%
Lab	16656	32.6%
LD	2952	5.8%
Grn	1388	2.7%
Oth	1053	2.1%
Majority	12412	24.3%