YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Dec 18, 2022 12:48:52 GMT
How confident are we that Fleetwood voted Labour in 2019?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 18, 2022 13:09:39 GMT
How confident are we that Fleetwood voted Labour in 2019? Not very - I have Labour ahead by less than 200 with most of the wards more or less neck and neck. They would have had a bigger lead in Skerton |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 18, 2022 15:41:04 GMT
The boundary changes here appear to reverse those previously and restore the old 'Lancaster & Wyre'. The main change involved does do this, swapping nearly 20,000 voters in Labour voting Fleetwood for the same number in the heavily Conservative, largely rural part of Wyre district around Garstang. The partisan impact of this is obvious. However, there are other changes at the Lancaster end of the seat which partially offsets this. Skerton, the Labour voting suburb of Lancaster is added from Morecambe & Lunesdale and the Lower Lune Valley moves the other way. It therefore differs in important ways from the previous incarnation of Lancaster & Wyre in that that seat exlcuded Skerton and included Poulton-le-Fylde. The boundary changes are enough to put this in the Conservative column in 2019 but one feels this may only ever have a 'notional' Conservative MP and not an actual one. 2019 Notional result - Lancaster & Wyre | Con | 23338 | 47.1% | | Lab | 21246 | 42.9% | | LD | 2263 | 4.6% | | Grn | 1830 | 3.7% | | BxP | 666 | 1.3% | | Oth | 160 | 0.3% |
| | | | Majority | 2092 | 4.2% |
Or rather the 1983-97 boundaries of Lancaster, which in addition to Lancaster and nearby villages contained the parts of the Wyre district around Garstang (the latter were in North Fylde from 1950 to 1983). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 18, 2022 21:43:54 GMT
The boundary changes here appear to reverse those previously and restore the old 'Lancaster & Wyre'. The main change involved does do this, swapping nearly 20,000 voters in Labour voting Fleetwood for the same number in the heavily Conservative, largely rural part of Wyre district around Garstang. The partisan impact of this is obvious. However, there are other changes at the Lancaster end of the seat which partially offsets this. Skerton, the Labour voting suburb of Lancaster is added from Morecambe & Lunesdale and the Lower Lune Valley moves the other way. It therefore differs in important ways from the previous incarnation of Lancaster & Wyre in that that seat exlcuded Skerton and included Poulton-le-Fylde. The boundary changes are enough to put this in the Conservative column in 2019 but one feels this may only ever have a 'notional' Conservative MP and not an actual one. 2019 Notional result - Lancaster & Wyre | Con | 23338 | 47.1% | | Lab | 21246 | 42.9% | | LD | 2263 | 4.6% | | Grn | 1830 | 3.7% | | BxP | 666 | 1.3% | | Oth | 160 | 0.3% |
| | | | Majority | 2092 | 4.2% |
Or rather the 1983-97 boundaries of Lancaster, which in addition to Lancaster and nearby villages contained the parts of the Wyre district around Garstang (the latter were in North Fylde from 1950 to 1983). Yes you're right in terms of the boundaries - its pretty close to the 1983-97, I was referring to the restoration of the name which is why I added the qualifier |
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