Lancaster and Fleetwood

[greenhert]

Lancaster & Fleetwood was created in 2010 from Lancaster & Wyre and the Fleetwood part of Blackpool North & Fleetwood. 

Lancaster & Fleetwood consists of the city of Lancaster, the Duchy of which is held by the monarch and after which the county of Lancashire is named, although the official administrative headquarters are in Preston to the south, the old fishing town of Fleetwood north of Blackpool, and large parts of the Wyre Peninsula. Lancaster is famous for Lancaster Castle, Lancaster Royal Grammar School and Lancaster University, and due to its liberal nature and closeness to the coast can be considered a north west relative of Brighton.

Lancaster & Fleetwood was won by the Conservatives' Eric Ollerenshaw by 333 votes in 2010, but the current Labour MP, Cat Smith, recaptured it in 2015 and has held it in the two elections since, which also means that this is now geographically the largest Labour-held constituency in England. There have been Green councillors in Lancaster at both district and county level for 21 years now, but just as in Stroud this has never properly translated to a general election vote; only in 2015 did the Green Party save its deposit in this constituency.

[Merseymike]

This is one of the most curious constituencies in terms of its boundaries currently in existence. A cursory look at a map should have shown the Boundary Commissioners that despite the towns being 12 miles apart on the map, the presence of the River Wyre means travelling distance is nearer 27 miles, and the quickest route between the towns involves a journey via north Blackpool (Thornton-Cleveleys). Not surprisingly, the two main population centres have virtually nothing in common. Historically, Lancaster has always been bolstered by additions from outside the town itself, most recently from parts of Wyre borough. It has also been the home of some interesting MP's including Humphrey Berkeley, the first MP to take on the (then) unpopular cause of homosexual law reform, and on losing the seat in 1966, switched sides from Conservative to Labour, later the SDP and finally back to Labour before his death. Perhaps in reaction, the Tories won the seat back in 1970 with the decidedly eccentric Dame Elaine Kellett-Bowman, who has a speaking voice so high that Labour MP's made howling dog noises every time she spoke, and whose loathing for gay people was so profound that she announced, in 1983, that she did not wish any to vote for her.

To start with the Lancaster end. The Skerton area is not included in this seat but the 8 other Lancaster wards are. The Conservatives are notable by their total absence at local level. They have traditionally been competitive in Scotforth and must still be so at national level, but this is a seat where the Greens have amassed a stack of local councillors whilst hardly managing to transfer any of them to a national election. These include bohemian Lancaster wards such as Marsh and Castle - Lancaster rivals Totnes and Stroud for its "alternative lifestyles" - but at the last district elections, small-c conservative Scotforth West with its prosperous detached houses was added to their haul as they took all three seats. Nationally Lancaster is Labour, but there are also two rural wards in this oart of the seat where the Conservatives dominate.

In the EU referendum, this seat was in the Leave column. This had little to do with Lancaster and its Remain majority, but the presence of Fleetwood which is estimated to be one of the most resolutely Brexit towns in England. There remains five Brexit Party councillors in Fleetwood and without a candidate in 2019 this was seen as potentially bolstering the Conservative vote. Fleetwood still has its Labour areas, albeit with split Labour-Brexit representation and enough of them still voted Labour to keep Cat Smith in situ, but there were some nervous faces at the count. The Fleetwood area also include three safe Tory wards, and this seat under its present boundaries could never be truly safe for any party , but the 2019 result suggests there is probably enough strength to keep this in the Labour column in all but a disaster year.

[greenhert]

Apr 12, 2020 10:38:31 GMT Merseymike said:

This is one of the most curious constituencies in terms of its boundaries currently in existence. A cursory look at a map should have shown the Boundary Commissioners that despite the towns being 12 miles apart on the map, the presence of the River Wyre means travelling distance is nearer 27 miles, and the quickest route between the towns involves a journey via north Blackpool (Thornton-Cleveleys). Not surprisingly, the two main population centres have virtually nothing in common.

To start with the Lancaster end. The Skerton area is not included in this seat but the 8 other Lancaster wards are. The Conservatives are notable by their total absence at local level. They have traditionally been competitive in Scotforth and must still be so at national level, but this is a seat where the Greens have amassed a stack of local councillors whilst hardly managing to transfer any of them to a national election. These include bohemian Lancaster wards such as Duke's and Castle - Lancaster rivals Totnes and Stroud for its "alternative lifestyles" - but at the last district elections, small-c conservative Scotforth West with its prosperous detached houses was added to their haul. Nationally Lancaster is Labour, but there are also two rural wards in this oart of the seat where the Conservatives dominate.

In the EU referendum, this seat was in the Leave column. This had little to do with Lancaster and its Remain majority, but the presence of Fleetwood which is estimated to be one of the most resolutely Brexit towns in England. There remains five Brexit Party councillors in Fleetwood and without a candidate in 2019 this was seen as potentially bolstering the Conservative vote. Fleetwood still has its Labour areas, albeit with split Labour-Brexit representation and enough of them still voted Labour to keep Cat Smith in situ, but there were some nervous faces at the count. The Fleetwood area also include three safe Tory wards, and this seat under its present boundaries could never be truly safe for any party , but the 2019 result suggests there is probably enough strength to keep this in the Labour column in all but a disaster year.

Duke's ward no longer exists. It was absorbed into a redrawn Castle ward in 2015; the new Marsh ward took in a lot of the old Castle ward. There have been Green councillors in Scotforth West continuously since 1999; it is just that 2019 was the first year where the Greens won all of the seats in said Scotforth West ward.

As for the seat itself, it is likely that it will be split up at the next Boundary Review; a Lancaster & Morecambe seat will probably emerge from that review and Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be recreated.

[Merseymike]

Altered. Same point applies....Lancaster Green voters mostly vote Labour nationally. The Greens are of very little consequence in national elections in this seat.

We don't know what will happen in the review now we are back to 650 seats but a combined Lancaster & Morecambe seat would be very safe Labour.

[greenhert]

Actually a hypothetical Lancaster & Morecambe would be just as marginal as Lancaster & Fleetwood; Morecambe is not that Labour-friendly. Furthermore with Lancaster and Morecambe being virtually next to each other (as opposed to the 12 mile distance between Lancaster and Fleetwood) campaigning would be a lot easier, overall giving the Conservatives an advantage in practice.

[Merseymike]

Apr 12, 2020 11:35:46 GMT greenhert said:

Actually a hypothetical Lancaster & Morecambe would be just as marginal as Lancaster & Fleetwood; Morecambe is not that Labour-friendly. Furthermore with Lancaster and Morecambe being virtually next to each other (as opposed to the 12 mile distance between Lancaster and Fleetwood) campaigning would be a lot easier, overall giving the Conservatives an advantage in practice.

You clearly don't know the area very well. The Labour vote in Morecambe is overwhelmingly centred on the town. The rural wards have little Labour support other than Carnforth. Again the presence of a local force - the MBIs makes local results little real help in predicting outcomes from those.
I will be writing Morecambe in due course but Lancaster and Morecambe, should it ever exist, will be a safe Labour seat. And it is Labour who would benefit from the urban focus of a new seat anyway in terms of campaigning. As I said before it is a 27 mile not 12 mile gap.

[edgbaston]

Apr 12, 2020 11:26:38 GMT Merseymike said:

Altered. Same point applies....Lancaster Green voters mostly vote Labour nationally. The Greens are of very little consequence in national elections in this seat.

We don't know what will happen in the review now we are back to 650 seats but a combined Lancaster & Morecambe seat would be very safe Labour.

While I will celebrate the abolition of Lancaster & Fleetwood, the new Westmorland & Lonsdale will be far worse in shape and coherence. And while Lancaster & Morecambe will be safe Labour, the review will effectively remove a marginal seat, a Lib Dem seat, and create a safe Tory one

[Merseymike]

Apr 12, 2020 12:11:28 GMT edgbaston said:

Apr 12, 2020 11:26:38 GMT Merseymike said:

Altered. Same point applies....Lancaster Green voters mostly vote Labour nationally. The Greens are of very little consequence in national elections in this seat.

We don't know what will happen in the review now we are back to 650 seats but a combined Lancaster & Morecambe seat would be very safe Labour.

While I will celebrate the abolition of Lancaster & Fleetwood, the new Westmorland & Lonsdale will be far worse in shape and coherence. And while Lancaster & Morecambe will be safe Labour, the review will effectively remove a marginal seat, a Lib Dem seat, and create a safe Tory one
View Attachment

I don't disagree and wonder whether with 650 MPs there will be a need for L&M anyway?

[greenhert]

There will be in practice since Lancashire would lose one seat under a 650 seat review.

[greenhert]

Apr 12, 2020 12:11:28 GMT edgbaston said:

Apr 12, 2020 11:26:38 GMT Merseymike said:

Altered. Same point applies....Lancaster Green voters mostly vote Labour nationally. The Greens are of very little consequence in national elections in this seat.

We don't know what will happen in the review now we are back to 650 seats but a combined Lancaster & Morecambe seat would be very safe Labour.

While I will celebrate the abolition of Lancaster & Fleetwood, the new Westmorland & Lonsdale will be far worse in shape and coherence. And while Lancaster & Morecambe will be safe Labour, the review will effectively remove a marginal seat, a Lib Dem seat, and create a safe Tory one

Not necessarily. You could extend Barrow-in-Furness to the east and change Westmorland & Lonsdale to just Westmorland by adding in Appleby-in-Westmorland and Kirkby Stephen, both of which fit in better with the latter seat anyway (and not Penrith & The Border).

[edgbaston]

Apr 12, 2020 13:14:54 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 12, 2020 12:11:28 GMT edgbaston said:

While I will celebrate the abolition of Lancaster & Fleetwood, the new Westmorland & Lonsdale will be far worse in shape and coherence. And while Lancaster & Morecambe will be safe Labour, the review will effectively remove a marginal seat, a Lib Dem seat, and create a safe Tory one

Not necessarily. You could extend Barrow-in-Furness to the east and change Westmorland & Lonsdale to just Westmorland by adding in Appleby-in-Westmorland and Kirkby Stephen, both of which fit in better with the latter seat anyway (and not Penrith & The Border).

Show me. That was my favoured solution with 600 seats, but I can't find a neat way to do it under a 650 seat allocation- which requires the splitting of the County boundary to stay within the quota.

[greenhert]

Apr 12, 2020 13:27:22 GMT edgbaston said:

Apr 12, 2020 13:14:54 GMT greenhert said:

Not necessarily. You could extend Barrow-in-Furness to the east and change Westmorland & Lonsdale to just Westmorland by adding in Appleby-in-Westmorland and Kirkby Stephen, both of which fit in better with the latter seat anyway (and not Penrith & The Border).

Show me. That was my favoured solution with 600 seats, but I can't find a neat way to do it under a 650 seat allocation- which requires the splitting of the County boundary to stay within the quota.

Admittedly I ended up having to extend Barrow-in-Furness north instead of east to recreate Westmorland under a 5% quota with 650 seats (the North West would be entitled to 73 seats in such a scenario), and instead extend a hypothetical North Lancashire seat northwards into the Lonsdale area: 

[edgbaston]

Apr 12, 2020 13:55:56 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 12, 2020 13:27:22 GMT edgbaston said:

Show me. That was my favoured solution with 600 seats, but I can't find a neat way to do it under a 650 seat allocation- which requires the splitting of the County boundary to stay within the quota.

Admittedly I ended up having to extend Barrow-in-Furness north instead of east to recreate Westmorland under a 5% quota with 650 seats (the North West would be entitled to 73 seats in such a scenario), and instead extend a hypothetical North Lancashire seat northwards into the Lonsdale area: 

Fair cop. After some thought think I do actually prefer this map - and not just for the obvious partisan reasons. The big compromise obviously being the lack of a road connection in the cross county seat - but this is probably no more egregious than having Windermere and Lancaster University in the same seat.

[greenhert]

I was not drawing it for partisan reasons-I was restricted by the deviation limit of 5%.

[Rural Radical]

Isn’t this seat the largest Labour constituency (by acreage)?

[The Bishop]

Apr 19, 2020 9:13:31 GMT Rural Radical said:

Isn’t this seat the largest Labour constituency (by acreage)?

It is indeed, before last December it was Bishop Auckland (and prior to the 2017 byelection, my own seat)

[Rural Radical]

Apr 19, 2020 11:20:49 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 19, 2020 9:13:31 GMT Rural Radical said:

Isn’t this seat the largest Labour constituency (by acreage)?

It is indeed, before last December it was Bishop Auckland (and prior to the 2017 byelection, my own seat)

Neighbouring Workington would have been one of the biggest as well

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 17.1% 294/650
Owner-occupied 66.4% 343/650
Private rented 19.6% 132/650
Social rented 12.0% 495/650
White 94.2% 338/650
Black 0.5% 377/650
Asian 4.0% 271/650
Managerial & professional 26.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 22.6%
Degree level 26.5% 295/650
No qualifications 21.1% 405/650
Students 21.7% 24/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 64.2% 329/573
Private rented 23.5% 137/573
Social rented 12.4% 405/573
White 90.1%
Black 1.1%
Asian 5.0%
Managerial & professional 27.7% 412/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.4% 376/573
Degree level 32.2% 281/573
No qualifications 16.5% 357/573
Students 18.8% 28/573




General Election 2019: Lancaster and Fleetwood

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Cat Smith 21,184 46.8 -8.3
Conservative Louise Thistlethwaite 18,804 41.6 +1.0
Liberal Democrats Peter Jackson 2,018 4.5 +2.0
Brexit Party Leanne Murray 1,817 4.0 New
Green Caroline Jackson 1,396 3.1 +1.4

Lab Majority 2,380 5.2 -9.3

Turnout 45,219 64.5 -3.8

Labour hold

Swing 4.6 Lab to C

[Pete Whitehead]

The boundary changes here appear to reverse those previously and restore the old 'Lancaster & Wyre'. The main change involved does do this, swapping nearly 20,000 voters in Labour voting Fleetwood for the same number in the heavily Conservative, largely rural part of Wyre district around Garstang. The partisan impact of this is obvious. However, there are other changes at the Lancaster end of the seat which partially offsets this. Skerton, the Labour voting suburb of Lancaster is added from Morecambe & Lunesdale and the Lower Lune Valley moves the other way. It therefore differs in important ways from the previous incarnation of Lancaster & Wyre in that that seat exlcuded Skerton and included Poulton-le-Fylde. The boundary changes are enough to put this in the Conservative column in 2019 but one feels this may only ever have a 'notional' Conservative MP and not an actual one.

2019 Notional result - Lancaster & Wyre

Con	23338	47.1%
Lab	21246	42.9%
LD	2263	4.6%
Grn	1830	3.7%
BxP	666	1.3%
Oth	160	0.3%
Majority	2092	4.2%

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 18, 2022 11:50:23 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 18, 2022 7:36:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The boundary changes here appear to reverse those previously and restore the old 'Lancaster & Wyre'. The main change involved does do this, swapping nearly 20,000 voters in Labour voting Fleetwood for the same number in the heavily Conservative, largely rural part of Wyre district around Garstang. The partisan impact of this is obvious. However, there are other changes at the Lancaster end of the seat which partially offsets this. Skerton, the Labour voting suburb of Lancaster is added from Morecambe & Lunesdale and the Lower Lune Valley moves the other way. It therefore differs in important ways from the previous incarnation of Lancaster & Wyre in that that seat exlcuded Skerton and included Poulton-le-Fylde. The boundary changes are enough to put this in the Conservative column in 2019 but one feels this may only ever have a 'notional' Conservative MP and not an actual one.

2019 Notional result - Lancaster & Wyre

Con	23338	47.1%
Lab	21246	42.9%
LD	2263	4.6%
Grn	1830	3.7%
BxP	666	1.3%
Oth	160	0.3%
Majority	2092	4.2%

257 notional results have been posted so far by Pete and Labour has 45 targets where a swing of less than 12% is required. Seems like a very low number although the notionals posted so far have featured more safe seats than average I think. .

Yes its not a very representative area overall. I've done mostly London and the Home counties and a few of the provincial metro areas. There's also quite a few seats in the areas I've covered which would be marginal but where I haven't posted notionals because their are no, or negligible, boundary changes (eg. Southampton Itchen, Worthing East, Crawley, Peterborough, Stevenage, Altrincham)