Post by John Chanin on Apr 3, 2020 14:45:41 GMT
Dagenham is most famous for the enormous Becontree housing estate, built after the first world war on land outside the boundaries, and the then built-up area of London. However most of the estate is now in the Barking constituency following the transfer of 3 wards to the undersized seat in 2010. The Barking & Dagenham wards in this seat form a narrow north-south strip along the east of the borough. In the north there is an odd salient, separating Ilford from Romford, which forms the district of Chadwell Heath. This is an area of small terraced housing, to the north council housing, and to the south around Chadwell Heath station older owner-occupied housing. In the centre there is the eastern edge of the Becontree estate, plus an area alongside the river Rom, which is really part of Romford, and is owner-occupied suburbia typical of that town . Between the District Line and the A13, south of the Becontree Estate is more private housing, descending to the industrial area on the Thames flood plain, containing the famous Ford car plant, that traditionally was the main employer in the area (now sadly diminished).
The 2010 reorganization that abolished the Hornchurch seat moved its 3 southern wards into this constituency. Elm Park is part of Hornchurch proper while South Hornchurch and Rainham are separate settlements closer to the river. All are best described as modest private housing built since the first world war. There is an extensive area of marshland beside the river (Rainham marshes) similar to that further downstream, although separated by the built up areas of Thurrock.
The old Hornchurch seat was a marginal, although tending towards the Conservatives on a long term basis. The Conservatives won it back from Labour in 2005. The southern wards were generally the more Labour part of the seat, although locally they are now won by the ubiquitous Residents Associations in Havering. Dagenham however has historically been monolithically Labour with majorities of more than 20,000, and all the wards in this seat remain Labour at a local level. Social and political change has however moved the area slowly and steadily towards the Conservatives nationally. While social renting remains relatively high, it now accounts for only a quarter of households. Like other seats in south Essex there has been a strong right-wing presence moving from BNP to UKIP to Brexit Party. Counter balancing this has been a rapid recent growth in ethnic minorities, particularly of African origin, moving out of the city to cheap rented and owner-occupied housing, who now form over a quarter of the population. This remains a very working class seat, with high levels of routine occupations and low levels of managerial, more reminiscent of many northern and midlands seats than London. Educational qualifications are particularly low, despite the generally young population.
The focus on leaving the EU in the 2019 election turned the seat into an ultra marginal, with MP Jon Cruddas holding on by less than 300 votes. The area voted roughly two-thirds for Leave in the 2016 referendum. Cruddas was first elected in 2001, and is best known for running Labour’s policy review under the leadership of Ed Miliband, and of thinking hard about how to reconcile Labour’s old and new bases of support, a key issue in his constituency.
Dagenham & Rainham was the right size for a constituency, but the neighbouring seats were over-sized. The initial Boundary Commission proposals left the Havering borough component unaltered, and swapped two Barking wards - Valence, which contains a lot of the Becontree estate, being moved back into the seat, and Chadwell Heath being transferred to a Redbridge seat. Following difficulties in Havering, 2500 more voters have been moved in from the Elm Park area of Hornchurch. With such a small majority, even small changes make a political difference. Valence is historically more Labour than Chadwell Heath (although not in 2022). Assessing the Hornchurch voters is more difficult because local elections are dominated by Residents. Historically Elm Park was slightly Labour inclined, but it is likely that the 2500 voters split in favour of the Conservatives in 2019. Overall the seat will remain just as marginal as before.
Census data: owner-occupied 62% (406/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (330th), social rented 24% (98th).
:White 72%, Black 15%, Asian 6%, Mixed 3%, Other 3%
: Managerial & professional 26% (510th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (187th)
: Degree 18% (510th), Minimal qualifications 46% (54th)
: Students 4.9% (166th) , Over 65: 15% (430th)
The 2010 reorganization that abolished the Hornchurch seat moved its 3 southern wards into this constituency. Elm Park is part of Hornchurch proper while South Hornchurch and Rainham are separate settlements closer to the river. All are best described as modest private housing built since the first world war. There is an extensive area of marshland beside the river (Rainham marshes) similar to that further downstream, although separated by the built up areas of Thurrock.
The old Hornchurch seat was a marginal, although tending towards the Conservatives on a long term basis. The Conservatives won it back from Labour in 2005. The southern wards were generally the more Labour part of the seat, although locally they are now won by the ubiquitous Residents Associations in Havering. Dagenham however has historically been monolithically Labour with majorities of more than 20,000, and all the wards in this seat remain Labour at a local level. Social and political change has however moved the area slowly and steadily towards the Conservatives nationally. While social renting remains relatively high, it now accounts for only a quarter of households. Like other seats in south Essex there has been a strong right-wing presence moving from BNP to UKIP to Brexit Party. Counter balancing this has been a rapid recent growth in ethnic minorities, particularly of African origin, moving out of the city to cheap rented and owner-occupied housing, who now form over a quarter of the population. This remains a very working class seat, with high levels of routine occupations and low levels of managerial, more reminiscent of many northern and midlands seats than London. Educational qualifications are particularly low, despite the generally young population.
The focus on leaving the EU in the 2019 election turned the seat into an ultra marginal, with MP Jon Cruddas holding on by less than 300 votes. The area voted roughly two-thirds for Leave in the 2016 referendum. Cruddas was first elected in 2001, and is best known for running Labour’s policy review under the leadership of Ed Miliband, and of thinking hard about how to reconcile Labour’s old and new bases of support, a key issue in his constituency.
Dagenham & Rainham was the right size for a constituency, but the neighbouring seats were over-sized. The initial Boundary Commission proposals left the Havering borough component unaltered, and swapped two Barking wards - Valence, which contains a lot of the Becontree estate, being moved back into the seat, and Chadwell Heath being transferred to a Redbridge seat. Following difficulties in Havering, 2500 more voters have been moved in from the Elm Park area of Hornchurch. With such a small majority, even small changes make a political difference. Valence is historically more Labour than Chadwell Heath (although not in 2022). Assessing the Hornchurch voters is more difficult because local elections are dominated by Residents. Historically Elm Park was slightly Labour inclined, but it is likely that the 2500 voters split in favour of the Conservatives in 2019. Overall the seat will remain just as marginal as before.
Census data: owner-occupied 62% (406/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (330th), social rented 24% (98th).
:White 72%, Black 15%, Asian 6%, Mixed 3%, Other 3%
: Managerial & professional 26% (510th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (187th)
: Degree 18% (510th), Minimal qualifications 46% (54th)
: Students 4.9% (166th) , Over 65: 15% (430th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 17,813 | 40.3% | 17,830 | 41.4% | 22,958 | 50.1% | 19,468 | 44.5% |
Conservative | 15,183 | 34.3% | 10,492 | 24.4% | 18,306 | 39.9% | 19,175 | 43.8% |
Liberal Democrat | 3,806 | 8.6% | 717 | 1.7% | 465 | 1.0% | 1,182 | 2.7% |
UKIP/Brexit | 1,569 | 3.5% | 12,850 | 29.8% | 3,246 | 7.1% | 2,887 | 6.6% |
| BNP | 4,952 | 11.2% | 222 | 0.5% | 239 | 0.5% | ||
Green | 296 | 0.7% | 806 | 1.2% | 544 | 1.2% | 602 | 1.4% |
Others | 613 | 1.4% | 133 | 0.2% | 85 | 0.2% | 421 | 1.0% |
Majority | 2,630 | 5.9% | 4,980 | 10.1% | 4,652 | 10.1% | 293 | 0.7% |
