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Post by matureleft on Apr 3, 2020 7:28:46 GMT
Good stuff. I’d only remark that even in Rottingdean Coastal the Tory lead wasn’t particularly large based on the local elections last year. The lovely Saltdean lido is a notable building (and maintenance burden!) in that part of the seat.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 3, 2020 11:13:12 GMT
As with Hove, this seat has moved majorly to Labour since 2017 as well as the longer term swing.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 3, 2020 13:30:43 GMT
Good stuff. I’d only remark that even in Rottingdean Coastal the Tory lead wasn’t particularly large based on the local elections last year. Tbh on my 2017 figures I think Labour probably narrowly won it. Brighton proper only makes up 1/2 the constituency, so Labour needed to be running about even in the rest of the constituency in order for their margin of victory to add up. The Tories will have comfortably won Peacehaven North, but that’s it for any absolute certain calls I can make. Everything else will have been close, and on balance I think Rottingdean Coastal will have went Labour in 2017 and maybe 2019, albeit with a some big internal differences (big Tory lead in Overdean, Labour ahead elsewhere particularly Roedean area). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2020 14:12:51 GMT
Good stuff. I’d only remark that even in Rottingdean Coastal the Tory lead wasn’t particularly large based on the local elections last year. Tbh on my 2017 figures I think Labour probably narrowly won it. Brighton proper only makes up 1/2 the constituency, so Labour needed to be running about even in the rest of the constituency in order for their margin of victory to add up. The Tories will have comfortably won Peacehaven North, but that’s it for any absolute certain calls I can make. Everything else will have been close, and on balance I think Rottingdean Coastal will have went Labour in 2017 and maybe 2019, albeit with a some big internal differences (big Tory lead in Rodean, Labour ahead elsewhere particularly Roedean area). Fwiw (and I won't make any claim that my figures are more reliable than yours) I have the Tories carrying Rottingdean by a reasonably clear margin, indeed I have them ahead in all of the six Eastern wards by a similar margin (between 48/48 and 54/43 and averaging 52/44) with only Peacehaven West being very close. This amounts to a numerical lead of only 2,000 across all six wards but fairly evenly split (though Rottingdean itself accounts for nearly 1,000 of this). Meanwhile the three inner-Brighton wards have a combined Labour lead of nearly 12,000 and a vote split of c. 74/22 As I say I could be quite wrong |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 3, 2020 16:32:53 GMT
Fwiw (and I won't make any claim that my figures are more reliable than yours) I have the Tories carrying Rottingdean by a reasonably clear margin, indeed I have them ahead in all of the six Eastern wards by a similar margin (between 48/48 and 54/43 and averaging 52/44) with only Peacehaven West being very close. This amounts to a numerical lead of only 2,000 across all six wards but fairly evenly split (though Rottingdean itself accounts for nearly 1,000 of this). Meanwhile the three inner-Brighton wards have a combined Labour lead of nearly 12,000 and a vote split of c. 74/22 As I say I could be quite wrong Fair points. Agree that the Tories are ahead in the vote across the eastern 6 wards and I doubt our vote distribution is radically different. Your numbers presumably have even more en masse movement from local Green voters to Labour in the west (not unreasonable), while mine, on the basis that Labour won councillors in 2019 in Peacehaven East + East Saltdean and Telscombe Cliffs, assume they were pretty even there and iirc bump them up a bit in the neighbouring areas as well. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2020 16:46:44 GMT
Fwiw (and I won't make any claim that my figures are more reliable than yours) I have the Tories carrying Rottingdean by a reasonably clear margin, indeed I have them ahead in all of the six Eastern wards by a similar margin (between 48/48 and 54/43 and averaging 52/44) with only Peacehaven West being very close. This amounts to a numerical lead of only 2,000 across all six wards but fairly evenly split (though Rottingdean itself accounts for nearly 1,000 of this). Meanwhile the three inner-Brighton wards have a combined Labour lead of nearly 12,000 and a vote split of c. 74/22 As I say I could be quite wrong Fair points. Agree that the Tories are ahead in the vote across the eastern 6 wards and I doubt our vote distribution is radically different. Your numbers presumably have even more en masse movement from local Green voters to Labour in the west (not unreasonable), while mine, on the basis that Labour won councillors in 2019 in Peacehaven East + East Saltdean and Telscombe Cliffs, assume they were pretty even there and iirc bump them up a bit in the neighbouring areas as well. Yes I based mine on the 2015 local elections (largely because in 2017 I didn't have the option of using the 2019 results). This would have also resulted in there being a substantial base UKIP vote in Peacehaven etc which would have gone substantially to the Conservatives while as you say the Green vote in Brighton proper would have boosted Labour massively there |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 4, 2020 11:37:24 GMT
I must confess that I was surprised to reread last year's council elections and see that Rottingdean Coastal is now on a par with Woodingdean, basically (though I am quite sure that Rottingdean village itself must still vote Conservative by a more comfortable margin). I have therefore reworded all the parts about that area to reflect that. I am not sure quite how this escaped my attention, I can only assume that when I saw the results last year I saw that the Tories had held on to Woodingdean and simply assumed that they would have been safer in Rottingdean Coastal. The latter appears to have moved strongly in Labour's direction in the last quarter of a century whereas Woodingdean has changed very little. I hadn't noticed this previously but in looking at a ward map now I noticed that this ward now includes a non-negligible area to the West of the Marina. It is a fairly small area but quite densely populated and looks like it would vote much in line with East Brighton/Kemptown. Presumably this was in the old Marine ward and added to Rottingdean at the last review so this will have had s noticeable effect on the balance in that ward |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 21, 2020 9:02:00 GMT
Here as promised is a new profile This seat is east Brighton. Kemptown sits to the east of the deep valley that takes the A23 down to the seafront. Its terraces of small houses climb up the steep hill to Queens Park. This is the trraditional working class area of Brighton, but was early colonised by the gay community that is centred here, and there is a leavening of students amongst middle-class professionals these days. Queens Park ward has the highest educational standards in the constituency and the second highest managerial occupations. However Kemptown is a misnomer for the constituency now, as around 40% of it in Hanover ward was transferred to the Pavilion constituency in 1997. Politically Queens Park ward is similar to territory west of the Old Steine, being a contest between Labour and the Greens locally, although voting Labour at general elections. Along the coast are some grand Georgian terraces - the original Kemp Town - leading to Brighton Marina where the Downs reach the sea. There are modern flat blocks here, and the area is more up market, but does not stretch far from the coast. Inland of Kemptown are the large grim council estates of Moulescoomb, along the Lewes Road, and Whitehawk, nestled under the Downs below Brighton racecourse. These have very high deprivation scores, and form the heart of the traditional Labour vote in the constituency, although no doubt like similar areas they are less so these days. Nonetheless both the wards that contain them remain solidly Labour. Moulscoomb & Bevendean ward though also contains both the campuses of Brighton University, with on site residential accommodation, and a third of people in the ward are students. The original polytechnic is in Bevendean, closer to the city centre, while the original college of education is at Falmer, directly opposite the campus of Sussex University, and just south of Brighton & Hove Albion’s new Amex stadium. The council estate sits incongrously between them. Given this you may wonder why this is traditionally a Conservative seat, Labour only in the very best years until recently. This is because on the edge of the city, separated from the main built-up area, are two very different wards, both three-quarters owner-occupied, compared to just a third in the three inner wards. Out on the Downs is Woodingdean, full of suburban semis, and down on the coast in a valley between two ridges is Rottingdean, the most up market part of Brighton where 50% of households have managerial occupations, and there is a large retired population. Saltdean further east and straddling the city boundary is similar but a bit down market. Both these wards are solidly Conservative, though less so than they used to be. In 1997 in exchange for Hanover ward, the Kemptown seat gained the Peacehaven area further east along the coast, and part of Lewes District Council. This tilted the seat substantially to the Conservatives, the notional 1992 figure for the revised seat showing a 20% Conservative lead compared to the actual 7% in 1992. Peacehaven is the Sussex equivalent of the Essex plotlands with higgledy piggledy development of a wide variety of standards. Peacehaven isn’t particularly high status economically, but nor is it poor. Educational qualifications are however lower than in Brighton, and owner-occupation is high. The west side of Peacehaven, known as Telscombe Cliffs, is modern and wholly owner-occupied. Labour used to have no votes in Peacehaven, but have worked hard since the area was added to Kemptown, and managed to elect councillors in 2 of the wards in 2019 - the only Labour councillors in Lewes District, and the first since a lone victory in East ward in 1995. Despite the unfavourable boundary change Labour won the seat in 1997 on a 14% swing, and held it reasonably comfortably in 2005 before a narrow loss in 2010. They failed to regain it in 2015, but won in 2017 with a swing of nearly 11%, one of the 10 highest in the country, aided by the withdrawal of the Greens. There was little swing back in 2019 as the Conservative vote continues to drop, and the seat is now looking fairly safe. While not as astonishing as in neighbouring Pavilion and Hove, there is no question that social and demographic change here has swung the seat towards Labour fairly continuously over the last 40 years. However the salience of the EU issue probably flatters the Labour performance here in the last 2 elections, with Brighton & Hove voting 69% Remain at the referendum, and closer contests can be expected in future. The suburbs remain half the seat, and are still voting Conservative for the most part. The MP here who won the seat in 2017 is Lloyd Russell-Moyle, a former charity worker, left-winger and junior shadow minister until his recent resignation. The Boundary Commission originally proposed swapping Queens Park ward for Hanover & Elm Grove, but following consultation has settled for moving just 2000 voters from the latter ward, just enough to bring Kemptown up to size. Census data: owner-occupied 55% (486/573 in England & Wales), private rented 22% (95th), social rented 22% (129th). :White 90%, Black 2%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 3%, Other 3% : Managerial & professional 37% (248th), Routine & Semi-routine 28% (337th) : Degree level 27%(247th), Minimal qualifications 36%(315th), Students 11% (55th) : Over 65: 17% (292nd)
| 2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Labour | 14,889 | 34.9% | 17,738 | 39.2% | 28,703 | 58.3% | 25,033 | 51.6% | Conservative | 16,217 | 38.0% | 18,428 | 40.7% | 18,835 | 38.3% | 16,972 | 35.0% | Liberal Democrat | 7,691 | 18.0% | 1,365 | 3.0% | 1,457 | 3.0% | 2,964 | 6.1% | UKIP/Brexit | 1,384 | 3.2% | 4,446 | 9.8% | | | 1,327 | 2.7% | Green | 2,330 | 5.5% | 3,187 | 7.0% | | | 2,237 | 4.6% | Others | 194 | 0.5% | 142 | 0.4% | 212 | 0.4% | |
| Majority | -1328 | -3.1% | -690 | -1.5% | 9,868 | 20.1% | 8,061 | 16.6% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2020 9:55:26 GMT
Peacehaven did elect some Labour councillors in 1995
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 21, 2020 9:58:12 GMT
Peacehaven did elect some Labour councillors in 1995 I went back to 1995 to see if they had, and the opposition to the Conservatives seemed to come from the Liberal Democrats. I obviously missed East Peacehaven which was in a different column. It's very irritating when you miss something despite having looked. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2020 10:01:39 GMT
Yes they had Peacehaven East and were close in West as well. I've just checked the Thrasher & Rallings site but I remembered it from the time because I lived in Brighton in 1995 so took a particular interest in the local election results from the area
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2020 10:11:43 GMT
Notable that the three seats in this conurbation are still all around 90% white, which makes the Labour/Green dominance and Tory weakness all the more striking.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2020 10:17:56 GMT
Notable that the three seats in this conurbation are still all around 90% white, which makes the Labour/Green dominance and Tory weakness all the more striking. London metropolitan elite priced out of Islington? |
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Post by batman on Dec 5, 2021 15:58:39 GMT
Yes they had Peacehaven East and were close in West as well. I've just checked the Thrasher & Rallings site but I remembered it from the time because I lived in Brighton in 1995 so took a particular interest in the local election results from the area I remember at the time adding up the votes for the 3 Peacehaven wards and noticing that Labour very narrowly gained more votes than the Tories, although the Tories were still ahead in Telscombe Cliffs pretty comfortably and in those days actually won Rottingdean ward (as it was then called) by more than they win Rottingdean Coastal by nowadays. However Labour were stronger in that short period in Woodingdean than they are today. They were the only seats Labour won even in their annus mirabilis of 1995 in the Lewes district, so no seats were won even then in Lewes constituency. In contrast Labour managed to win in Selsey South ward along the coast, which seems totally astonishing today. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 30, 2022 21:57:33 GMT
2021 Census
Owner occupied 53.1% 476/573
Private rented 25.7% 96/573
Social rented 21.2% 125/573
White 86.8%
Black 2.2%
Asian 4.7%
Managerial & professional 31.6% 298/573
Routine & Semi-routine 20.1% 419/573
Degree level 34.6% 212/573
No qualifications 17.4% 313/573
2011 by same definitions
Managerial & professional 29.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 22.2%
Degree level 27.0% 247/573
No qualifications 22.5% 287/573
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 12, 2022 19:39:04 GMT
2019 Notional Results on new boundaries | Lab | 25436 | 50.8% | | Con | 17094 | 34.1% | | Grn | 3222 | 6.4% | | LD | 2964 | 5.9% | | BxP | 1338 | 2.7% | | Oth | 19 | 0.0% | | | | |
Majority | 8342 | 16.7% |
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Post by spinach on Jan 6, 2023 22:45:12 GMT
Kemptown - 20.11 %
The MSOA with the highest % of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual or Other population in England and Wales.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 6, 2023 23:04:56 GMT
I'd never have guessed.
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jan 6, 2023 23:33:00 GMT
Kemptown - 20.11 % The MSOA with the highest % of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual or Other population in England and Wales.
I'd have expected it to be somewhat higher.
If the 'one in ten' figure is anything close to accurate then statistically you'd expect the gayest (and indeed straightest) small output areas to be more than one standard deviation away from the mean.
Compared to the most/least Muslim/black/retired SOAs, this makes Kemptown appear only moderately gay really.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2023 0:14:02 GMT
Kemptown - 20.11 % The MSOA with the highest % of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual or Other population in England and Wales. I'd have expected it to be somewhat higher.
If the 'one in ten' figure is anything close to accurate then statistically you'd expect the gayest (and indeed straightest) small output areas to be more than one standard deviation away from the mean.
Compared to the most/least Muslim/black/retired SOAs, this makes Kemptown appear only moderately gay really.
The figure is 3% nationally |
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