Post by John Chanin on Apr 2, 2020 14:56:08 GMT
The communities that make up Thurrock constituency are a working-class sprawl along the Thames just outside the borders of London, separated by the Rainham marshes. To the north are the two expanded villages of Aveley and South Ockendon, the latter the site of a large post-war GLC housing estate, which is quite isolated, although there is a station on the c2c spur which runs through the District. Alongside the river from west to east are Purfleet, Thurrock proper, Grays and Tilbury. London’s port has moved regularly eastwards, from Purfleet to Tilbury, and most recently to the Thames Gateway at Coryton further down river. The docks traditionally provided much employment here. Inland at Chafford, Stifford, and Little Thurrock there has a lot of recent development, most of it private, around the huge shopping mall at Lakeside. The lowest bridging point on the Thames is the Thurrock Bridge which complements the Dartford Tunnel and runs across the Purfleet marshes. Just to the east is the tunnel carrying the Channel Tunnel rail link into St Pancras. The borough like the whole of south Essex is a hotbed of non-league football although the most successful club recently is outside this constituency in Stanford-le-hope.
Socially this is a very working class seat. The census figures for managerial and routine workers are very low and high respectively for southern England, and only neighbouring Barking and Dagenham have similar demography. Owner-occupation is quite low, and the private rented figure given here from the last census is now a substantial underestimate. Grays in particular has become a favoured area for exporting London’s homeless families, as one of the few available places where rents are cheap enough to be funded by the Benefits system. Responding to this private landlords have been buying up ex-council houses to rent out to the London boroughs. Meanwhile Thurrock has become an increasingly favoured destination for ethnic minority households looking for housing that they can afford to buy within reasonable distance of their work. The ethnic minority figure of 18% from the 2011 census will be much higher now, as both trends continue.
Politically there is a tug in opposite directions. On the one hand the older working-class population like the rest of south Essex has been increasingly deserting the Labour Party, firstly to UKIP and its successor the Thurrock Independents, and more recently to the Conservatives as membership of the European Union became ever more salient. On the other hand the influx of ethnic minorities has brought a new source of Labour support. Locally the riverside, where the older housing and the rented housing is concentrated votes Labour, the new private estates vote Conservative, and the older council estates inland haved moved from UKIP/Independent to Conservative. The constituency has also seen some of the closest contests during the last decade, with MP Jackie Doyle-Price winning the seat from Labour in 2010 with a majority of less than 100, and holding on by 3 figure margins in the subsequent 2 elections. However in 2019 with no competition from UKIP or the Brexit Party, the Conservatives achieved a sizeable majority. The seat is likely to return to marginality once exit from the EU has been achieved. All this is a long way from the large majorities piled up by Labour here in the post-war years, despite the removal of the more Conservative eastern section of the borough in 1983.
Thurrock constituency has continued to grow and is now oversized. The Boundary Commission propose to rectify this by transferring the Chadwell St Mary ward to Thurrock East. Since this is one of the more reliable Labour wards, this will strengthen the Conservative position a little.
Census data: owner-occupied 62% (404/573 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (238th), social rented 22% (138th).
:White 82%, Black 10%, Asian 3%, Mixed 2%, Other 3%
: Managerial & professional 29% (456th), Routine & Semi-routine 35% (153rd)
: Degree 18% (501st), Minimal qualifications 44% (76th)
: Students 2.9% (345th), Over 65 11% (508th)
Socially this is a very working class seat. The census figures for managerial and routine workers are very low and high respectively for southern England, and only neighbouring Barking and Dagenham have similar demography. Owner-occupation is quite low, and the private rented figure given here from the last census is now a substantial underestimate. Grays in particular has become a favoured area for exporting London’s homeless families, as one of the few available places where rents are cheap enough to be funded by the Benefits system. Responding to this private landlords have been buying up ex-council houses to rent out to the London boroughs. Meanwhile Thurrock has become an increasingly favoured destination for ethnic minority households looking for housing that they can afford to buy within reasonable distance of their work. The ethnic minority figure of 18% from the 2011 census will be much higher now, as both trends continue.
Politically there is a tug in opposite directions. On the one hand the older working-class population like the rest of south Essex has been increasingly deserting the Labour Party, firstly to UKIP and its successor the Thurrock Independents, and more recently to the Conservatives as membership of the European Union became ever more salient. On the other hand the influx of ethnic minorities has brought a new source of Labour support. Locally the riverside, where the older housing and the rented housing is concentrated votes Labour, the new private estates vote Conservative, and the older council estates inland haved moved from UKIP/Independent to Conservative. The constituency has also seen some of the closest contests during the last decade, with MP Jackie Doyle-Price winning the seat from Labour in 2010 with a majority of less than 100, and holding on by 3 figure margins in the subsequent 2 elections. However in 2019 with no competition from UKIP or the Brexit Party, the Conservatives achieved a sizeable majority. The seat is likely to return to marginality once exit from the EU has been achieved. All this is a long way from the large majorities piled up by Labour here in the post-war years, despite the removal of the more Conservative eastern section of the borough in 1983.
Thurrock constituency has continued to grow and is now oversized. The Boundary Commission propose to rectify this by transferring the Chadwell St Mary ward to Thurrock East. Since this is one of the more reliable Labour wards, this will strengthen the Conservative position a little.
Census data: owner-occupied 62% (404/573 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (238th), social rented 22% (138th).
:White 82%, Black 10%, Asian 3%, Mixed 2%, Other 3%
: Managerial & professional 29% (456th), Routine & Semi-routine 35% (153rd)
: Degree 18% (501st), Minimal qualifications 44% (76th)
: Students 2.9% (345th), Over 65 11% (508th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 16,869 | 36.8% | 16,692 | 33.7% | 19,880 | 39.5% | 27,795 | 58.6% |
Labour | 16,777 | 36.6% | 16,156 | 32.6% | 19,535 | 38.8% | 16,313 | 34.4% |
Liberal Democrat | 4,901 | 10.7% | 644 | 1.3% | 798 | 1.6% | 1,510 | 3.2% |
UKIP | 3,390 | 7.4% | 15,718 | 31.7% | 10,112 | 20.1% | ||
Green | 807 | 1.7% | ||||||
Others | 3,885 | 8.5% | 354 | 0.7% | 1,042 | 2.2% | ||
Majority | 92 | 0.2% | 536 | 1.1% | 345 | 0.7% | 11,482 | 24.2% |
