Hove

[Deleted]

There was a documentary on Brighton and Hove FC when they had no home ground and had to share with Guilford. It followed the fans and their campaign to lobby Prescott who was DPM at the time to get them a home ground. It was quite emotional

[finsobruce]

Apr 2, 2020 14:55:03 GMT @priceofdawn said:

There was a documentary on Brighton and Hove FC when they had no home ground and had to share with Guilford. It followed the fans and their campaign to lobby Prescott who was DPM at the time to get them a home ground. It was quite emotional

I think you mean Gillingham.

[matureleft]

Apr 2, 2020 14:55:03 GMT @priceofdawn said:

There was a documentary on Brighton and Hove FC when they had no home ground and had to share with Guilford. It followed the fans and their campaign to lobby Prescott who was DPM at the time to get them a home ground. It was quite emotional

It hinged on getting planning consent for their ground (which I think is in the Brighton Kemptown constituency). Part of the site lay in Lewes DC which objected, supposedly seeking to protect an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, sparking a planning inquiry. Controversially the minister overrode the inquiry recommendation against the development (it is a bit of a monstrosity). MPs received lobbying material from Brighton fans across the country who seemed to believe (perhaps correctly as it turned out!) that this wasn't a technical planning matter but a political decision.

[The Bishop]

Whilst the massive move to Labour here since the 1980s (surely one of the biggest anywhere in the country) is obvious, it is also the case that the results from 1997 to 2015 were something of a muchness - whilst favouring Labour, all of them were close. Its the still remarkable 2017 outcome that stands out.

(and also very surprising that the Tories made hardly any headway on that disastrous result last year)

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2020 10:48:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Whilst the massive move to Labour here since the 1980s (surely one of the biggest anywhere in the country) is obvious, it is also the case that the results from 1997 to 2015 were something of a muchness - whilst favouring Labour, all of them were close. Its the still remarkable 2017 outcome that stands out.

(and also very surprising that the Tories made hardly any headway on that disastrous result last year)

This post is genuinely interesting in demonstrating how what Labour Party members view as success has now had to fundamentally change as what has happened to their party in the last 10 years comes home to roost. 

The ‘much of muchness’ result includes increasing the party’s majority during government whilst it is apparently ‘very surprising’ that the Conservatives only managed to slightly decrease Labour’s majority in 2019, 9 years into an apparently dreadful Conservative government, in a very socially liberal constituency with a popular local anti-Corbyn MP. 

[The Bishop]

Its simply a fact that the results in this seat for 1997-2015 were quite similar and this contrasts to both before and since, that's all I was saying.

And as is fairly well known (and I thought you would be aware of this as a gay person) the Tory candidate in 2017 was genuinely one of their worst anywhere in living memory. That despite this, there was so little swing back to them last year (even when local election results a year ago showed they still have some life here) is surely both noteworthy and a little surprising - it likely was to Peter Kyle as well.

[Pete Whitehead]

It occurs to me how little I know this constituency on the ground, which is surprising give that I stayed in Brighton for a few weeks one summer and moreover the flat I lived in was literally on the border with Hove (then still a separate borough). I got to know both the other Brighton constituencies very well, touring both on foot and by car and for that matter quite a few other parts of the Sussex coast. but the only bits of this constituency I am at all familiar with is the area immediately bordering where I lived and the coast road out to Shoreham and Worthing. I did have a little look around Portslade as I knew this was a grotty and Labour voting area (though by this time Labour had a majority of seats on Hove council) but hardly saw anything of Hove proper.

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2020 11:12:36 GMT The Bishop said:

Its simply a fact that the results in this seat for 1997-2015 were quite similar and this contrasts to both before and since, that's all I was saying.

And as is fairly well known (and I thought you would be aware of this as a gay person) the Tory candidate in 2017 was genuinely one of their worst anywhere in living memory. That despite this, there was so little swing back to them last year (even when local election results a year ago showed they still have some life here) is surely both noteworthy and a little surprising - it likely was to Peter Kyle as well.

I am aware of the slightly odd choice of candidate in 2017, although there would have been a huge increase in vote share regardless as Labour did very well in very *specific* types of seats in 2017.. and very badly in others which as a Labour member I mentioned at the time. 

The swing was never going to be huge here and with the majority being so large in 2017 this result was always going to look odd given how disastrous the election was for Labour. It’s a socially liberal southern seat where Labour have managed to squeeze the Lib Dem’s very effectively. 

None of this makes up for the fact a decreased majority in 2019 is apparently a good result and dreadful for the Conservatives whilst an increased majority for Labour when in government is seemingly ‘much of muchness’. Interestingly this was one of Labour’s best result in Tory-Labour marginals in 2010. Furthermore, the result in 2015 was one of Labour’s few gains. It would be highly disingenuous to suggest politically this seat was not clearly changing by the 2010 election and becoming more favourable to Labour. 

Please quote me in future when responding to me. 

[Deleted]

The demise of the Tories in Brighton & Hove in the 2010s is similar to the decline of the Republican Party in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 1980s.

The Tories winning Hove and Kemptown in 2010 while failing to win a majority but losing both and winning a majority of 80 nationally in 2019 says it all.

[carlton43]

Apr 4, 2020 16:38:22 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The demise of the Tories in Brighton & Hove in the 2010s is similar to the decline of the Republican Party in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 1980s.

The Tories winning Hove and Kemptown in 2010 while failing to win a majority but losing both and winning a majority of 80 nationally in 2019 says it all.

Aha!  And what does it say, Oh enlightened one?

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2020 20:58:37 GMT carlton43 said:

Apr 4, 2020 16:38:22 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The demise of the Tories in Brighton & Hove in the 2010s is similar to the decline of the Republican Party in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 1980s.

The Tories winning Hove and Kemptown in 2010 while failing to win a majority but losing both and winning a majority of 80 nationally in 2019 says it all.

Aha!  And what does it say, Oh enlightened one?

Firstly, thanks for your reply 🙂

What it says it they there's no way back for the Tories here.

[John Chanin]

Here as promised is a new profile

This is the western seat in the city of Brighton & Hove. Formerly Hove was an independent council prior to its merger with Brighton in 1996. Reputationally while Brighton was raffish, Hove was the stolid residential area. However the distinction was always overdone - there was never any logic to the boundary that cut through the middle of the city, and in truth not so much difference on the ground. Hove was however even safer for the Conservatives in the 1970s and 1980s, with majorities of over 15,000 and the Liberal Democrats in second place until 1992, when the majority was still over 10,000.

Conservative success was based on a settled middle-class population, with many retirees as in other south coast towns. The resort area of Brighton continues along the coast to the west passed the derelict West Pier, with grand Georgian squares opening out onto the seafront, but is quieter. West of the King Alfred swimming pool and leisure centre it becomes solidly residential. The south coast railway line runs through the middle of the seat with three stations, and while there are direct trains to London, they are slower than those from Brighton, and there are many less commuters here. The old A27 forms a rather down market corridor just north of the railway, where the old Brighton football ground sat (now redeveloped), and Hove dog track still does. North of the road large semi-detached houses stretch back into the foothills of the Downs. The seat has many less students than Pavilion, but the larger cheaper housing has led to a spillover of professionals from Brighton. The other great transformation has been in the age of the population. From a seat with a high level of retirees, Hove now has less people over 65 than average.

The seat can roughly be divided into three parts. The inner three wards are a continuation of Brighton Pavilion - very high levels of private renting around 50%, but over 50% in managerial occupations, and close to 50% with degrees. They also share its politics, Brunswick & Adelaide, and Goldsmid returning Greens to the city council, and Central Hove being more transitional is marginal. The county cricket ground is here in Goldsmid ward, close to Hove station. The three central wards - Westbourne & Wish along the coast and Hove Park inland are just as high in managerial occupations, but a little older and less well qualified, and many more owner occupiers, particularly in Hove Park where they reach 80%, and this is the safest Conservative ward in the constituency. The two coastal wards lean Conservative but Labour are now competitive here. The three western wards are notably more working class with only a third in managerial occupations and less than a quarter with degrees. Hove’s council housing is concentrated in Hangleton out by the ring road, and to a lesser extent in Portslade - a more industrial area stretching north from Shoreham harbour, with many smaller terraced houses. Portslade was traditionally the only Labour part of the seat, and remains so, while Hangleton is normally Conservative as the owner-occupiers outweigh the council tenants.

At a parliamentary level the two key years were 1997 and 2017. In the former Labour achieved a swing of over 16% - the 22nd highest in the country, enabling them to overcome a 12,000 majority to comfortably win the seat. In 2005 Labour clung on by 420 votes, before the Conservatives regained the seat in 2010, with a smaller than average swing. In 2015 Labour won its only seat in the south of England here, while narrowly failing in Kemptown. Then in 2017 an extraordianry 15% swing, second only to Bristol West in the whole country, has turned the seat into apparently safe Labour, a view reinforced by the small swing back to the Conservatives in 2019, whose share of the vote continues to decline. Perhaps even more than neighbouring Pavilion this is one of the most astonishing political transformations in the country, comparable in the opposite direction to seats like North Warwickshire. One can expect the Green vote to rise here in future, given their local strength, and the fact that a Conservative victory is no longer in consideration. The MP here who won the seat in 2015 is Peter Kyle, former charity worker, but unlike his similar colleague in Kemptown, more associated with the moderate wing of the Labour Party.

The Boundary Commission have made no changes to this seat, which is in quota, other than adding Portslade to the name.

Census data: owner-occupied 58% (461/573 in England & Wales), private rented 30% (33rd), social rented 11% (484th).
                      :White 89%, Black 1%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 4%, Other 4%
                      : Managerial & professional 47% (73rd), Routine & Semi-routine 20% (510th)
                      : Degree level 38%(56th), Minimal qualifications 28%(500th)
                      : Students 4.6% (181st), Over 65: 15% (426th)

	2010	%	2015	%	2017	%	2019	%
Labour	16,426	33.0%	22,082	42.3%	36,942	64.1%	32,876	58.3%
Conservative	18,294	36.7%	20,846	39.9%	18,185	31.6%	15,832	28.1%
Liberal Democrat	11,240	22.6%	1,861	3.6%	1,311	2.3%	3,731	6.6%
UKIP/Brexit	1,206	2.4%	3,265	6.3%			1,111	2.0%
Green	2,568	5.2%	3,569	6.8%	971	1.7%	2,496	4.4%
Others	85	0.2%	591	1.2%	187	0.3%	345	0.6%
Majority	-1868	-3.7%	1,236	2.4%	18,757	32.6%	17,044	30.2%

[batman]

Hi John just seen this. Many thanks for writing a new profile which is mostly very good. Just one thing - in listing the central wards you mention Hove Park. That does touch the central areas of Hove but mostly is an outlying suburban area, of greater prosperity than most of Hove as you say. It's essentially the successor to the old Stanford ward, which was the one & only totally hopeless ward for Labour in Hove latterly. Central Hove of course has a much great claim to be a central ward.

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census

Owner occupied 55.8% 454/573
Private rented 33.2% 46/573
Social rented 11.0% 473/573
White 85.7%
Black 1.5%
Asian 4.3%
Managerial & professional 42.5% 64/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.4% 501/573
Degree level 46.5% 51/573
No qualifications 12.7% 525/573

[YL]

If Hove, Actually likes to insist that it is not Brighton, and Portslade, Actually likes to insist that it is not Hove (hence the name change) is there somewhere which likes to insist that it is not Portslade?

[bjornhattan]

Dec 15, 2022 20:19:56 GMT YL said:

If Hove, Actually likes to insist that it is not Brighton, and Portslade, Actually likes to insist that it is not Hove (hence the name change) is there somewhere which likes to insist that it is not Portslade?

Brighton?

[Pete Whitehead]

Southwick?