Post by martinwhelton on Apr 3, 2020 1:27:24 GMT
What would the result have been if the seat had existed under its current boundaries in 1992? I presume that it would have been Conservative in 1983 and 1987.
quote author="@europeanlefty" source="/post/928135/thread" timestamp="1585837114"]I finally get to do a safe Labour seat! Again, thoughts, edits, additions etc. welcome
Bristol West
This is the lefty-liberal seat to end all lefty-liberal seats. It is also, in my opinion, one of the worst named constituencies in the whole country, covering the centre and some areas of the east of a city with no distinct “western” area. Bristol Central would be a far more accurate name for the seat, although many would suggest, perhaps unkindly but not incorrectly, that “Hipster Central” would be even more accurate. This seat sits nestled in between the other Bristol, or in the local dialect, “Brizzle” seats and on the north bank of the Avon, which marked the historic boundary between Somerset and Gloucestershire.
When outsiders from other areas of Gloucestershire and Somerset say “Bristol”, this is the area they usually mean, covering Temple Meads station, Cabot Circus shopping mall, the city centre, the floating harbour, most of the university buildings and countless shops, museums and restaurants that draw people into the city from miles away. The seat also takes in some areas with a more suburban and more North Bristol feeling, including the communities of Montpellier and Bishopston to its north and Clifton to the west. Although the city’s position on the mouth of the river Avon allowed it to become a major port and industrial centre, this is probably the constituency that shows it least. Bristol was already a major shipbuilding and manufacturing hub by the 14th century, and by the Tudor era it was the country’s second most important port, trading with Ireland, Iceland and Gascony. In the 17th and 18th centuries overseas trade grew in importance and Bristol, along with Liverpool, became a major hub in the triangular Atlantic slave trade. In the nineteenth century, the railway came to Bristol thanks to engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel who built the Great Western Railway linking the West Country to London. His Bristol-Built steamships, the SS Great Britain and Great Western, the former of which is now back in Bristol harbour and open to the public as a museum which is well worth a visit if you’re ever in the area, brought the New World much closer and helped increase Bristol’s importance as a port.
Bristol also has a long history of liberal and non-conformist thought. Not only did its status as a port open it to trade and immigration from all over Europe, but John Wesley opened the first Methodist chapel in the city in 1739. In 1831, the people of Bristol rited in Queen's Square in protest at the House of Lords' rejection of the reform act at its second reading. In 1963, the Bristol Omnibus company was refusing to hire black or Asian bus crews and discrimination in many areas, including employment and housing, was sadly commonplace in the UK at the time. Led by youth worker Paul Stephenson and the West Indian Development Council, residents boycotted Bristol buses for four months. The boycott drew national attention and was endorsed by several prominent politicians including the High Commissioner of Trinidad and Tobago. The boycott was successful not only in persuading the company to drop it discriminatory policies but was also likely instrumental in passing the Race Relations acts of 1965 and 68. Little wonder then, with its history of liberalism, protest and progressivism that this city is such a stronghold for the left in UK politics.
Bizarrely, this is not so much the case in this seat. It is, by quite some way, the least deprived of Bristol’s four constituencies and is one of the richest in the country, although there are large pockets of deprivation in and around Lawrence Hill. In Bristol’s industrial heyday, the grand and garden-rich townhouses of this seat were home to the managers and owners of the city’s industries and this seat was a safe Conservative one for most of its history. From its creation in 1885 to 1997 it elected only Conservative MPs. The Liberals were starting to close in on the Tories in the 80s and 90s and in 1992 the Tory majority shrunk to just 11.5% - their only narrower wins coming in the Liberal landslide year of 1906 and the Labour landslide of 1945. In 1997, Labour came from third to take the seat by 2.4% or 1,493 votes over the Conservatives and 7.2% or 4,517 votes over the LibDems. Labour held in 2001 with the LibDems leapfrogging the Tories into second. In 2005, the LibDems gained the seat on an 8.4% swing and held it in 2010, with the Tory vote declining in both cases.
Although boundary changes have helped the Labour Party, moving several Tory areas out of the seat and importing equally strongly Labour ones, this seat has also undergone major political and demographic change. This seat had never been immune to the social liberalism of the rest of the city, but by now the University were the largest employer in the seat and this had had two major effects. One is that the former grand houses of the area’s manager class were now mostly divided up and given over to student accommodation. Another is that the population in the city centre areas of the seat was now disproportionately working in sectors associated with academia and the university. The constituency also has an average age of 38 years, more than ten years younger than the national average. The liberal nature of this seat has not changed but now transitioned into a more overtly left-wing liberal one, and at 79.3% this seat had the second (or third, depending on whose analysis you read) highest remain vote of any constituency in the country in 2016. Even the very rich former Tory bastions of Clifton and Redland are now given over to the Greens at local level with Labour sweeping them at general elections. In 2015, this political shift showed itself in a big way as the LibDems lost nearly 30% on 2010, the Labour Party regained the seat with Thangam Debbonaire, and the Greens gained 23% to finish second, just 8.9% behind the Labour Party. In 2017, as left-wing and liberal voters lined up behind Labour nationwide, the party gained 30%, their largest gain at that year’s general election. In 2019, the LibDems stood aside allowing the Greens a free run at the seat. The swing against Labour was just 3.7%, well below the national average, and Debbonaire comfortably held on, winning 62.3% of the vote and a 37.4% majority. The Labour Party now carry every ward at general elections, although it is highly likely that the Greens do noticeably better in the old Tory strongholds like the Clifton and Redland wards where social and environmental issues are more important than economic ones, and where people and communities who are culturally Tory have made than transition to Labour politics, but not the transition to Labour votes.
Overall, Bristol West is an extremely liberal and left-wing city and this formerly safe Tory seat is now rock solid for the Labour Party. It will take the retirement of the incumbent MP for the Greens to be even remotely competitive in the seat, and even then, it may not be enough.
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quote author="@europeanlefty" source="/post/928135/thread" timestamp="1585837114"]I finally get to do a safe Labour seat! Again, thoughts, edits, additions etc. welcome
Bristol West
This is the lefty-liberal seat to end all lefty-liberal seats. It is also, in my opinion, one of the worst named constituencies in the whole country, covering the centre and some areas of the east of a city with no distinct “western” area. Bristol Central would be a far more accurate name for the seat, although many would suggest, perhaps unkindly but not incorrectly, that “Hipster Central” would be even more accurate. This seat sits nestled in between the other Bristol, or in the local dialect, “Brizzle” seats and on the north bank of the Avon, which marked the historic boundary between Somerset and Gloucestershire.
When outsiders from other areas of Gloucestershire and Somerset say “Bristol”, this is the area they usually mean, covering Temple Meads station, Cabot Circus shopping mall, the city centre, the floating harbour, most of the university buildings and countless shops, museums and restaurants that draw people into the city from miles away. The seat also takes in some areas with a more suburban and more North Bristol feeling, including the communities of Montpellier and Bishopston to its north and Clifton to the west. Although the city’s position on the mouth of the river Avon allowed it to become a major port and industrial centre, this is probably the constituency that shows it least. Bristol was already a major shipbuilding and manufacturing hub by the 14th century, and by the Tudor era it was the country’s second most important port, trading with Ireland, Iceland and Gascony. In the 17th and 18th centuries overseas trade grew in importance and Bristol, along with Liverpool, became a major hub in the triangular Atlantic slave trade. In the nineteenth century, the railway came to Bristol thanks to engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel who built the Great Western Railway linking the West Country to London. His Bristol-Built steamships, the SS Great Britain and Great Western, the former of which is now back in Bristol harbour and open to the public as a museum which is well worth a visit if you’re ever in the area, brought the New World much closer and helped increase Bristol’s importance as a port.
Bristol also has a long history of liberal and non-conformist thought. Not only did its status as a port open it to trade and immigration from all over Europe, but John Wesley opened the first Methodist chapel in the city in 1739. In 1831, the people of Bristol rited in Queen's Square in protest at the House of Lords' rejection of the reform act at its second reading. In 1963, the Bristol Omnibus company was refusing to hire black or Asian bus crews and discrimination in many areas, including employment and housing, was sadly commonplace in the UK at the time. Led by youth worker Paul Stephenson and the West Indian Development Council, residents boycotted Bristol buses for four months. The boycott drew national attention and was endorsed by several prominent politicians including the High Commissioner of Trinidad and Tobago. The boycott was successful not only in persuading the company to drop it discriminatory policies but was also likely instrumental in passing the Race Relations acts of 1965 and 68. Little wonder then, with its history of liberalism, protest and progressivism that this city is such a stronghold for the left in UK politics.
Bizarrely, this is not so much the case in this seat. It is, by quite some way, the least deprived of Bristol’s four constituencies and is one of the richest in the country, although there are large pockets of deprivation in and around Lawrence Hill. In Bristol’s industrial heyday, the grand and garden-rich townhouses of this seat were home to the managers and owners of the city’s industries and this seat was a safe Conservative one for most of its history. From its creation in 1885 to 1997 it elected only Conservative MPs. The Liberals were starting to close in on the Tories in the 80s and 90s and in 1992 the Tory majority shrunk to just 11.5% - their only narrower wins coming in the Liberal landslide year of 1906 and the Labour landslide of 1945. In 1997, Labour came from third to take the seat by 2.4% or 1,493 votes over the Conservatives and 7.2% or 4,517 votes over the LibDems. Labour held in 2001 with the LibDems leapfrogging the Tories into second. In 2005, the LibDems gained the seat on an 8.4% swing and held it in 2010, with the Tory vote declining in both cases.
Although boundary changes have helped the Labour Party, moving several Tory areas out of the seat and importing equally strongly Labour ones, this seat has also undergone major political and demographic change. This seat had never been immune to the social liberalism of the rest of the city, but by now the University were the largest employer in the seat and this had had two major effects. One is that the former grand houses of the area’s manager class were now mostly divided up and given over to student accommodation. Another is that the population in the city centre areas of the seat was now disproportionately working in sectors associated with academia and the university. The constituency also has an average age of 38 years, more than ten years younger than the national average. The liberal nature of this seat has not changed but now transitioned into a more overtly left-wing liberal one, and at 79.3% this seat had the second (or third, depending on whose analysis you read) highest remain vote of any constituency in the country in 2016. Even the very rich former Tory bastions of Clifton and Redland are now given over to the Greens at local level with Labour sweeping them at general elections. In 2015, this political shift showed itself in a big way as the LibDems lost nearly 30% on 2010, the Labour Party regained the seat with Thangam Debbonaire, and the Greens gained 23% to finish second, just 8.9% behind the Labour Party. In 2017, as left-wing and liberal voters lined up behind Labour nationwide, the party gained 30%, their largest gain at that year’s general election. In 2019, the LibDems stood aside allowing the Greens a free run at the seat. The swing against Labour was just 3.7%, well below the national average, and Debbonaire comfortably held on, winning 62.3% of the vote and a 37.4% majority. The Labour Party now carry every ward at general elections, although it is highly likely that the Greens do noticeably better in the old Tory strongholds like the Clifton and Redland wards where social and environmental issues are more important than economic ones, and where people and communities who are culturally Tory have made than transition to Labour politics, but not the transition to Labour votes.
Overall, Bristol West is an extremely liberal and left-wing city and this formerly safe Tory seat is now rock solid for the Labour Party. It will take the retirement of the incumbent MP for the Greens to be even remotely competitive in the seat, and even then, it may not be enough.
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