Nottingham East

[greenhert]

Nottingham East is one of the most ethnically diverse constituencies outside Greater London, and in many ways feels similar to South Inner London, for reasons both good and bad.

Nottingham East was first created in 1885, then abolished in 1955, but recreated in 1974. Its boundaries have remained similar since 1983 when it gained the reasonably prosperous suburbs of Mapperley and Sherwood from Nottingham North. The areas of St Ann's and Sneinton within Nottingham East were once the epicentre of a significant gun crime in problem in the city which briefly gave Nottingham the moniker "Shottingham". Notitngham East counts the Arboretum, Nottingham High School, and Nottingham Trent University amongst its landmarks. A tradition of alternative politics has run through Nottingham East for decades to at least a small extent.

Nottingham East is the safest Labour seat in Nottingham although it was Conservative from 1983 to 1992, and consistently has the lowest turnout in the East Midlands. Labour would have recaptured it in 1987 had not Sharon Atkin been sacked as candidate for criticising Neil Kinnock (now Lord Kinnock) at a Black Sections Rally; the Conservatives held the seat by 456 votes as a result of the fallout. Labour easily recaptured it in 1992 on an 8.3% swing. In 2019, its then Labour MP, Chris Leslie, co-founded the Independents for Change Group; he contested the 2019 general election under that banner but finished fourth and lost his deposit. Nadia Whittome, the Baby of the House and former care worker, is the current MP for this seat. This seat was also the first in the East Midlands to record a saved deposit for the Green Party, back in 2005.

[The Bishop]

Or, indeed, of its somewhat less than wonderful previous MP.

Leslie's pathetic result was one of the few heartwarming moments of a pretty grim election night - all the more so since he had spent the previous few years claiming the 71% he got in 2017 was all down to his transcendent individual brilliance and nothing at all to do with being the Labour candidate

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 9.5% 617/650
Owner-occupied 40.0% 619/650
Private rented 29.7% 38/650
Social rented 28.2% 68/650
White 64.8% 593/650
Black 8.8% 53/650
Asian 16.8% 59/650
Managerial & professional 22.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.1%
Degree level 26.0% 312/650
No qualifications 22.6% 340/650
Students 21.2% 25/650



2021 Census

Owner occupied 41.4% 542/573
Private rented 35.4% 28/573
Social rented 23.2% 91/573
White 60.7%
Black 11.4%
Asian 17.8%
Managerial & professional 22.4% 523/573
Routine & Semi-routine 23.5% 297/573
Degree level 31.6% 291/573
No qualifications 18.3% 259/573
Students 23.5% 12/573






General election 2019: Nottingham East

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Nadia Whittome 25,735 64.3 -7.1
Conservative Victoria Stapleton 8,342 20.9 -0.8
Liberal Democrats Robert Swift 1,954 4.9 +2.3
The Independent Group for Change Chris Leslie 1,447 3.6
Brexit Party Damian Smith 1,343 3.4
Green Michelle Vacciana 1,183 3.0 +1.2

Lab Majority 17,393 43.5 -6.4

2019 electorate 66,262

Turnout 40,004 60.4 -3.3

Labour hold Swing 3.15 Lab to C

[Robert Waller]

Nottingham East
There has been a stark difference in the development of political and electoral opinion between ‘city’ and ‘county’ constituencies in Nottinghamshire in recent decades. For example, Nottingham East was won by the Conservatives in the general elections at the height of Margaret Thatcher’s popularity in 1983 and 1987, but by December 2019 it had in effect become a very safe Labour seat, with a majority of 17,393 for its 23 year old MP, the ‘Baby of the House’, Nadia Whittome. This lead would be proof against a swing of anything less than 21.7% to the Tories. On the other hand, in 2019 the shire seats of Ashfield, Mansfield and Bassetlaw were all Conservative victories, the latter two with majorities of over 14,000. Yet in 1983 and 1987 all these three were held by Labour. The differences are linked to attitudes to the most decisive issue of the 2010s, the relationship between the UK and the EU: in the 2016 referendum it is estimated that Nottingham East voted to Remain by around 57% to 43% for Leave. Bassetlaw, Ashfield and Mansfield on the other hand voted for Leave by between 68% and 71%. Of course the differences on Brexit are themselves reflections of the contrasting characteristics of the electorate between East and the outlying parts of the county.

The neighbourhoods that make up Nottingham East have been ethnically mixed for a longer time than in many other parts of Britain. The city was one of the first destinations of what has fashionably become known as the ‘Windrush generation’ of immigrants from the Caribbean, attracted by the chance of employment in industries such as transport. There were so-called race riots in Nottingham in 1958 as well as in Notting Hill. Somewhat later there was also an influx from South Asia, mainly Pakistan, and later still from Africa. By the time of the 2021 census East was reported as being 17.8% Asian and 11.4% Black, with a narrow minority, 49.7% as White British (over 9% placed themselves in the ‘White Other category). By comparison Mansfield, Ashfield and Bassetlaw were between 87% and 93% White British in 2021. Within Nottingham East, the traditional non-white residential areas have been within the wards covering St Ann’s and Hyson Green, just north-east and north-west of the city centre respectively. The two MSOAs covering St Ann’s were around 18 to 22% Black in 2021. 37% in Hyson Green were Asian, and the same figure was recorded in Forest Fields next door, due north of the city centre.

Both St Ann’s and Hyson Green & Arboretum wards are among the strongest in the whole of Nottingham for the Labour party. In the most recent city council elections, in May 2019, the top Labour candidate achieved nearly 73% of the vote in St Ann’s and over 79% in Hyson Green & Arboretum. However all the other, somewhat disparate, parts of the East division have also favoured Labour recently. East of the city centre is Dales ward (the most well known ‘dale’ is the Sneinton Dale neighbourhood; it does not look at all like the dales of the adjacent county, Derbyshire), predominantly white working class. There were over 20% in elementary occupations (comparable with the figures in St Ann’s and Hyson Green) and 27% in social rented housing in Sneinton MSOA in the 2021 census. Dales ward in 2019 voted for Labour by over three to one over the Greens, who finished in second place among the opposing parties.

On the other hand, the most middle class and highly educated part of Nottingham East is Mapperley, where large houses, only some of them multi-occupied, climb the slopes in leafy avenues towards the often indistinguishable border with Gedling. Over 32% of those employed in Mapperley Park MSOA are in professional occupations. Many if these are in the public sector though – education, health, local government – and Labour won the ward by over two to one in 2019, again ahead of the Greens. The Conservatives have not won in Mapperley since 1991. Back in 1983 and 1987, when the Tory Michael Knowles won the East parliamentary seat, Mapperley was Conservative by over two to one, which made it the second strongest ward in the whole city for them after Wollaton. But urban wards with Mapperley's characteristics have moved sharply to the left in many cities in the last four decades, not just in Nottingham.

The same pattern can be seen to a slightly lesser extent in other wards in East such as Sherwood (30% professional in Sherwood Vale in the 2021 census, and 25% in North Sherwood). In Sherwood in 2019, the Labour candidates beat their Conservative rivals by around five to one. Sherwood does not include any of the eponymous forest any more, nor does it include the site of the famed annual Goose Fair, which is at the Forest Recreation Ground in Hyson Green & Arboretum ward, and on the edges of Berridge and Mapperley. Berridge is yet another safe Labour ward, giving them well over 60% in May 2019, covering the largely Victorian terraced streets of the New Basford community..

Like the other two Nottingham seats , East is currently undersized in electorate. Therefore it has been recommended to gain a ward in the forthcoming boundary changes. This is Castle, which covers the parts of the city centre not already within the boundaries - St Ann’s includes the Victoria shopping centre and Trinity Square; Hyson Green & Arboretum takes in the Theatre Royal and Trent University’s central campus, as well as the two city High Schools. Alumni include Ed Balls, Ken Clarke, Ed Davey and (Lord) David Frost as well as Jesse Boot, John Player, D H Lawrence, and Leslie Crowther of Crackerjack. Now East’s boundaries will encompass the castle itself and The Park, the elegant old west end of the city which now has a majority of full time students. Castle ward was also won by Labour in 2019, but with well under half the votes cast, as this was the Liberal Democrats’ best ward in the city, and the Greens also obtained nearly 20%.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/EM_36_Nottingham%20East%20BC.pdf

Overall the boundary changes will not in any significant way challenge Labour’s hegemony in Nottingham East. Although the arrival of Castle brings in the best Liberal Democrat ward in the city, they still lost their deposit in the 2019 general election – and that after nearly doubling their share compared with 2017. Although the Greens finished second in three of the six wards already in the East seat in May 2019 they did even worse than the LDs in the general election of December that year (3.0%) and only once, in 2015 (a creditable 9.9%), have they come anywhere reproducing their local election popularity; and they have only ever returned a councillor in the shape of the ex-Communist John Peck in Bulwell East within the North parliamentary division in 1995. There are some superficial similarities with Bristol, for example, such as the number of students and academics living within the city boundaries, but the Greens have not yet broken through in Nottingham.

The demographics of East are highly supportive of the Labour party. Although there are not quite as many full time students in East as in Nottingham South, this seat does still rank 12th on the list for England and Wales. It has an academic tone, with over 23% of over 16s studying full time, at their most concentrated around the Trent campus but spreading widely beyond, and over 31% already with degrees. It has the highest proportion of ethnic minority residents of the three Nottingham seats. Its housing is only a little over 40% owner occupied, and the proportion privately rented has increased between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses from under 30% to over 35%. It has many public sector workers; the huge City hospital is within its borders. The loyalty to Labour saw Chris Leslie, the former MP for nine years, garner a mere 3.6% as an Independent Group for Change candidate in December 2019, compared with 64.3% for the very young official party candidate. One suspects that she will have no problem remaining the member here for as long as she herself wishes, and retains the official imprimatur. The issue for Labour will not lie in Nottingham itself, but whether they can recover the other seats in the county, of very different social character, that have rejected them so strikingly since the end of the Blair administrations. Only then can they be confident of re-entering the corridors of power in Westminster.


Census and election figures in previous post

[batman]

it's a good & detailed profile Robert.