Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 1, 2020 21:30:55 GMT
KENSINGTON
In the mid-1960s the Parliamentary Boundary Commission for England at first thought it might be able to keep three constituencies in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, but the rapidly falling electorate forced them to reduce to two. Many complained at proposals which "thrust unnaturally together two greatly contrasting adjoining areas" (in the words of the report) but the electoral figures spoke for themselves.
Since 1974 (with a brief break in 1997-2010) residents in part of inner west London have been in a chalk and cheese constituency which has some of Europe's most expensive homes in the south, and some of the country's most deprived neighbourhoods in the north.
Although Notting Hill still has some areas of great poverty, especially around Golborne Road and Kensal Town where most homes are on council estates (including Erno Goldfinger's iconic Trellick Tower), the rest of North Kensington has moved up the social scale in recent decades and is now more mixed. West of Ladbroke Grove there are some smaller estates such as Dalgarno Gardens (owned by Peabody housing association) mixed in with terraced streets where undivided homes are valued by wealthy families: one such street is Finstock Road where David Cameron lived before the 2010 election.
A great deal of North Kensington was redeveloped in the 1960s and 1970s when the Westway urban motorway cut a swath through the terraces. Just south of the Westway is the Lancaster West Estate which was to become tragically known throughout the world when its centrepiece tower block, Grenfell Tower, suffered a catastrophic fire in June 2017. That the fire did not have a great electoral impact locally is worth returning to.
The Notting Hill depicted in the film of that name is to be found east of Ladbroke Grove and just north of Notting Hill Gate, around Portobello Road which is famous for its street market and antiques shops. This is an area of small flats, many privately rented, and includes some of the busiest areas of the annual Carnival on August Bank Holiday. Closer to Notting Hill Gate the housing moves distinctly up the social scale.
Holland Park, which occupies the centre of Kensington between Holland Park Avenue and Kensington High Street, is surrounded by mansion blocks and extremely large homes; it may seem to have a left-wing reputation from the family home of Tony Benn and the reputation of Holland Park School, but neither have managed to convert many of their neighbours. To the east is Kensington Palace and the very security-conscious Kensington Palace Gardens, a private 'millionaire's row' where there are several diplomatic missions and photography is banned.
Kensington High Street is flanked by expensive mansion flats and many of the houses south of it have been split up into flats; the constituency now includes Earls Court which is less well-off than the surrounding area but is slowly losing the bedsits which used to be typical. The current incarnation of Kensington also includes the museums area, Harrods, and Hans Town at the northern end of Sloane Street which is named after Sir Hans Sloane who developed it as a suburb in the 1770s.
Although the two parts of the constituency are far apart socially, there are some things they have in common: the area is entirely urban and space is at a premium, so Kensington has the seventh highest population density in England - despite having the fourth highest proportion of working age people living on their own. Compared with the mean, Kensington residents tend to be young, well-educated, and in good health. Very few own the home they live in; social tenants are mixed with a very large proportion of private rented tenants. Car ownership is low.
Another aspect shared by both communities is coming from abroad. Kensington is one of only nine seats where under half of residents were born in the UK. This makes for a great ethnic diversity. Though the Carnival celebrates the Black British community, many no longer live in the area; Kensington constituency has only the 66th highest proportion of Black residents.
Although divided, the balance of Kensington is firmly on the side of the wealthier areas. But what Kensington does have is a very large number of EU nationals: although not all could vote, the very cosmopolitan nature of the constituency made it back remain heavily in 2016. This factor did not help sitting Conservative MP Victoria Borwick in the 2017 election as she had backed Leave. A left-wing Labour councillor, Emma Dent Coad, made one of the most surprising gains of the election by only 20 votes in a result declared late on Friday after many recounts.
Rarely can an MP have had such a difficult first week. Dent Coad lived within sight of Grenfell Tower and had to pick up the issue without a Parliamentary office or any support staff. The strong swing at the 2017 general election and the failures of the Conservative council which the Grenfell fire revealed, led Labour to put a lot of effort into the 2018 council elections - but it netted them only a single seat, in what had been a split ward. The wealthier parts of Kensington felt great sympathy with the Grenfell community but did not see it as a reason not to vote Conservative. The poorer parts had been voting Labour anyway.
In the party turmoil of 2019, the Liberal Democrats at first chose Rabina Khan (a Tower Hamlets councillor) as their candidate, then six weeks later switched to Sam Gyimah - the sitting MP for East Surrey who had defected to them after losing the Conservative whip. Gyimah ran an aggressive campaign, with Emma Dent Coad taking exception to his remarks about her involvement with the Grenfell Tower cladding (she reported him to the police). The campaign saw pro-EU tactical voting campaigns switch around recommendations, unable to determine which of Labour or Liberal Democrat had the best chance. In the end, although the Conservative vote declined, new candidate Felicity Buchan emerged 150 votes ahead of Emma Dent Coad with the Liberal Democrat vote rising by 9%.
Many in Labour think their best chance in the constituency has gone. The party had also campaigned heavily in a 1988 byelection, only to fall short. Kensington is not a constituency which frequently delivers large swings in elections. As Brexit dies away as an issue, and failures from Grenfell Tower are put right, the Conservatives will have an opportunity to return Kensington constituency to the ranks of basically safe seats - albeit with a large disgruntled minority in the north.
In the mid-1960s the Parliamentary Boundary Commission for England at first thought it might be able to keep three constituencies in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, but the rapidly falling electorate forced them to reduce to two. Many complained at proposals which "thrust unnaturally together two greatly contrasting adjoining areas" (in the words of the report) but the electoral figures spoke for themselves.
Since 1974 (with a brief break in 1997-2010) residents in part of inner west London have been in a chalk and cheese constituency which has some of Europe's most expensive homes in the south, and some of the country's most deprived neighbourhoods in the north.
Although Notting Hill still has some areas of great poverty, especially around Golborne Road and Kensal Town where most homes are on council estates (including Erno Goldfinger's iconic Trellick Tower), the rest of North Kensington has moved up the social scale in recent decades and is now more mixed. West of Ladbroke Grove there are some smaller estates such as Dalgarno Gardens (owned by Peabody housing association) mixed in with terraced streets where undivided homes are valued by wealthy families: one such street is Finstock Road where David Cameron lived before the 2010 election.
A great deal of North Kensington was redeveloped in the 1960s and 1970s when the Westway urban motorway cut a swath through the terraces. Just south of the Westway is the Lancaster West Estate which was to become tragically known throughout the world when its centrepiece tower block, Grenfell Tower, suffered a catastrophic fire in June 2017. That the fire did not have a great electoral impact locally is worth returning to.
The Notting Hill depicted in the film of that name is to be found east of Ladbroke Grove and just north of Notting Hill Gate, around Portobello Road which is famous for its street market and antiques shops. This is an area of small flats, many privately rented, and includes some of the busiest areas of the annual Carnival on August Bank Holiday. Closer to Notting Hill Gate the housing moves distinctly up the social scale.
Holland Park, which occupies the centre of Kensington between Holland Park Avenue and Kensington High Street, is surrounded by mansion blocks and extremely large homes; it may seem to have a left-wing reputation from the family home of Tony Benn and the reputation of Holland Park School, but neither have managed to convert many of their neighbours. To the east is Kensington Palace and the very security-conscious Kensington Palace Gardens, a private 'millionaire's row' where there are several diplomatic missions and photography is banned.
Kensington High Street is flanked by expensive mansion flats and many of the houses south of it have been split up into flats; the constituency now includes Earls Court which is less well-off than the surrounding area but is slowly losing the bedsits which used to be typical. The current incarnation of Kensington also includes the museums area, Harrods, and Hans Town at the northern end of Sloane Street which is named after Sir Hans Sloane who developed it as a suburb in the 1770s.
Although the two parts of the constituency are far apart socially, there are some things they have in common: the area is entirely urban and space is at a premium, so Kensington has the seventh highest population density in England - despite having the fourth highest proportion of working age people living on their own. Compared with the mean, Kensington residents tend to be young, well-educated, and in good health. Very few own the home they live in; social tenants are mixed with a very large proportion of private rented tenants. Car ownership is low.
Another aspect shared by both communities is coming from abroad. Kensington is one of only nine seats where under half of residents were born in the UK. This makes for a great ethnic diversity. Though the Carnival celebrates the Black British community, many no longer live in the area; Kensington constituency has only the 66th highest proportion of Black residents.
Although divided, the balance of Kensington is firmly on the side of the wealthier areas. But what Kensington does have is a very large number of EU nationals: although not all could vote, the very cosmopolitan nature of the constituency made it back remain heavily in 2016. This factor did not help sitting Conservative MP Victoria Borwick in the 2017 election as she had backed Leave. A left-wing Labour councillor, Emma Dent Coad, made one of the most surprising gains of the election by only 20 votes in a result declared late on Friday after many recounts.
Rarely can an MP have had such a difficult first week. Dent Coad lived within sight of Grenfell Tower and had to pick up the issue without a Parliamentary office or any support staff. The strong swing at the 2017 general election and the failures of the Conservative council which the Grenfell fire revealed, led Labour to put a lot of effort into the 2018 council elections - but it netted them only a single seat, in what had been a split ward. The wealthier parts of Kensington felt great sympathy with the Grenfell community but did not see it as a reason not to vote Conservative. The poorer parts had been voting Labour anyway.
In the party turmoil of 2019, the Liberal Democrats at first chose Rabina Khan (a Tower Hamlets councillor) as their candidate, then six weeks later switched to Sam Gyimah - the sitting MP for East Surrey who had defected to them after losing the Conservative whip. Gyimah ran an aggressive campaign, with Emma Dent Coad taking exception to his remarks about her involvement with the Grenfell Tower cladding (she reported him to the police). The campaign saw pro-EU tactical voting campaigns switch around recommendations, unable to determine which of Labour or Liberal Democrat had the best chance. In the end, although the Conservative vote declined, new candidate Felicity Buchan emerged 150 votes ahead of Emma Dent Coad with the Liberal Democrat vote rising by 9%.
Many in Labour think their best chance in the constituency has gone. The party had also campaigned heavily in a 1988 byelection, only to fall short. Kensington is not a constituency which frequently delivers large swings in elections. As Brexit dies away as an issue, and failures from Grenfell Tower are put right, the Conservatives will have an opportunity to return Kensington constituency to the ranks of basically safe seats - albeit with a large disgruntled minority in the north.
