Where is Mole Valley, a stranger may ask? The most romantic answer is: between the Surrey hills. It is indeed true that this seat includes the attractions of Leith Hill, the highest point in south-eastern England, which reaches 1,000 feet with the assistance of a monumental tower; and of Box Hill, to which Londoners have been travelling for relaxation and restoration for well over a century. However, there are few voting residents on the hills, of course, and in the mid 1990s the Boundary Commission made an attempt to change the constituency’s name to reflect the two main population centres: Dorking and Leatherhead. The Mole Valley District Council objected, and strangers will still have to ask.
The Conservative party did very well in Valleys in the 2019 general election – or at least in those seats with Valley in their name. They comfortably gained Don Valley and Rother Valley from Labour in addition to holding Ribble Valley, Amber Valley, Meon Valley and Mole Valley with overwhelming majorities. In Wales they held on to the Vale of Glamorgan in somewhat difficult circumstances and gained the Vale of Clwyd. At least Labour managed narrowly to keep Weaver Vale in Cheshire, and Cynon Valley – which is in the archetypal ‘valleys’, those of South Wales.
However although the Tory majority in Mole Valley was over 12,000 in December 2019, this was only half of their lead just two years earlier. The Liberal Democrat share increased from 19% to 34% between 2017 and 2019. This was only partially achieved by squeezing Labour in third place down from 14% to only just over the 5% deposit threshold. The veteran MP Sir Paul Beresford saw his share drop by over 6%. As in neighbouring Surrey seats like Guildford and Esher & Walton, a chief reason for the swing to the Liberal Democrats was the referendum result; Mole Valley is estimated to have preferred Remain in 2016 by 53% to 47%. However another harbinger was the local election results in May 2019, when the Conservatives performed very poorly compared with both Lib Dems and local residents and independent groups. Ashtead, regularly swept by an organization naming itself in 2019 ‘Ashtead Independent, Working with Ashtead Residents’ is actually in Epsom and Ewell constituency, but Liberal Democrats won 11 of the other 13 Mole Valley council wards contested that May. Not only did they take wards where the Conservatives might be expected to struggle, at least relatively, such as the less affluent northern half of Leatherhead and southern section of Dorking abutting the Holmwoods, where the social housing estate even has a handful of tower blocks; but they also won in very comfortable suburbs such as Bookham and Fetcham (for example Fetcham West ward is 92% owner occupied, one of the highest figures recorded anywhere) and in rural wards such as Leith Hill and Box Hill & Headley.
In the wards of Guildford council included in the Mole Valley constituency, it was the residents groups (including the ‘GGG’, the Guildford Greenbelt Group) that inflicted the damage in May, returning councillor in Lovelace ward (with nearly a 90% share in a straight fight with the Tories), Clandon and Horsley and Send, while the Liberal Democrats took Effingham. In Tillingbourne ward, named after a smaller river, the Green party took one of the two Tory seats. Therefore overall the Conservatives returned just three of the 21 councillors elected within the Mole Valley constituency six months or so before the 2019 general election.
It might be wondered why they still won the parliamentary seat by a five figure margin. The answer probably has to do with ‘Residents’ voters opting for the Tories in a general election, and also possibly the perceived threat of a Liberal Democrat vote letting in a socialist Corbyn government. Should the next general election focus less on Europe, the Liberal Democrats might slip back. On the other hand their local government strength and the possibility of an economically blighted Conservative government, together with a Labour brand less toxic to this basically very well-off part of Surrey, means that Mole Valley can no longer be regarded as an absolute Conservative stronghold. For example, who would ever have thought that this Valley would no regarded an eight per cent lower swing to be lost by the Tories that Derbyshire’s Amber Valley, site of such gritty towns as Alfreton. Times have indeed changed, and become unpredictable, among hills and valleys alike.
General election 2019: Mole Valley
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Paul Beresford 31,656 55.4 -6.4
Liberal Democrats Paul Kennedy 19,615 34.4 +15.0
Labour Brian Bostock 2,965 5.2 -8.7
Green Lisa Scott-Conte 1,874 3.3 +0.7
Independent Robin Horsley 536 0.9 N/A
UKIP Geoffrey Cox 464 0.8 -1.6
Majority 12,041 21.0 -21.4
Turnout 57,110 76.5 +0.2
Conservative hold Swing -10.7
