Post by BossMan on Apr 1, 2020 18:04:19 GMT
SHIPLEY
(I must credit Robert Waller and Byron Criddle's previous edition for some of this.)
For most of its postwar history, the Yorkshire constituency of Shipley, located to the north west of Bradford, has been regarded as the type of seat the Conservatives can usually rely upon, only losing to Labour in their worst landslide defeats. In 1997, a 24 year old Chris Leslie became the youngest MP in the country by signally ousting the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Marcus Fox who had been the MP for 27 years. This was the first Labour victory in Shipley since 1945, although Labour were able to win during the interwar years, and before them the Liberals almost continuously held it between its creation in 1885 and 1923.
The 1950 boundary changes were favourable to the Conservatives, and Shipley became an affluent, suburban and semi-rural constituency – a considerable change from the industrial origins of the towns here.
The seat always included the affluent and strongly white small towns of Bingley and Baildon, favoured by commuters to (and escapees from) Bradford, and the town of Shipley itself. Shipley includes Sir Titus Salt’s planned nineteenth century village and tourist attraction of Saltaire, the location of the famous Salts Mill and Roberts Park. It also stretches up a steep hill towards north Bradford at Wrose.
There are two large, rural and heavily Tory wards stretching across moorland in different directions. To the north east is Wharfedale, consisting of Rombalds Moor (the ward used to be called Rombalds), Burley and Menston. To the south west is Bingley Rural, which includes the villages of Denholme, Cullingworth and Wilsden.
The Conservative Philip Davies regained Shipley from Chris Leslie in 2005. In recent years, the constituency is looking much more like a classical marginal seat rather than one the Conservatives can usually rely upon, and on paper it is now a seat Labour is hoping to win if it is one day to form a government. There are a number of probable reasons for this. The Liberal Democrats, as in so many places, saw their support take a hammering during the Coalition years of 2010-2015, and they are yet to fully recover. In the Baildon ward, they were once very competitive, but following the retirement of popular councillors some years ago they now struggle to reach third place, let alone win. Similarly, they used to be able to win the Windhill and Wrose ward, but that has become reliably Labour. Labour’s other handicap in the seat has been the relative success of the Green Party, which has been winning in the Shipley ward and its predecessors since the year 2000. But the Greens withdrew their candidate at the 2017 general election, and Philip Davies saw the Conservative majority cut from 9,624 to just 4,681 (they were rumours on the night he had lost). Labour then went on to win the Shipley ward from the Greens in the 2018 local elections (although the Greens managed to win it again the following year). Additionally, Labour has become increasingly competitive in Bingley ward, which they haven’t won since the late 1990s.
At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won by 80 seats, the swing in Shipley was just 1.4% in their favour, giving Philip Davies a not particularly convincing majority over Labour of 6,242. The Lib Dems polled just 5.9% of the vote. It appears that the Conservatives are reliant on third party strength, as they were some decades ago, to minimise the chance of Labour winning Shipley again in the future.
(I must credit Robert Waller and Byron Criddle's previous edition for some of this.)
For most of its postwar history, the Yorkshire constituency of Shipley, located to the north west of Bradford, has been regarded as the type of seat the Conservatives can usually rely upon, only losing to Labour in their worst landslide defeats. In 1997, a 24 year old Chris Leslie became the youngest MP in the country by signally ousting the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Marcus Fox who had been the MP for 27 years. This was the first Labour victory in Shipley since 1945, although Labour were able to win during the interwar years, and before them the Liberals almost continuously held it between its creation in 1885 and 1923.
The 1950 boundary changes were favourable to the Conservatives, and Shipley became an affluent, suburban and semi-rural constituency – a considerable change from the industrial origins of the towns here.
The seat always included the affluent and strongly white small towns of Bingley and Baildon, favoured by commuters to (and escapees from) Bradford, and the town of Shipley itself. Shipley includes Sir Titus Salt’s planned nineteenth century village and tourist attraction of Saltaire, the location of the famous Salts Mill and Roberts Park. It also stretches up a steep hill towards north Bradford at Wrose.
There are two large, rural and heavily Tory wards stretching across moorland in different directions. To the north east is Wharfedale, consisting of Rombalds Moor (the ward used to be called Rombalds), Burley and Menston. To the south west is Bingley Rural, which includes the villages of Denholme, Cullingworth and Wilsden.
The Conservative Philip Davies regained Shipley from Chris Leslie in 2005. In recent years, the constituency is looking much more like a classical marginal seat rather than one the Conservatives can usually rely upon, and on paper it is now a seat Labour is hoping to win if it is one day to form a government. There are a number of probable reasons for this. The Liberal Democrats, as in so many places, saw their support take a hammering during the Coalition years of 2010-2015, and they are yet to fully recover. In the Baildon ward, they were once very competitive, but following the retirement of popular councillors some years ago they now struggle to reach third place, let alone win. Similarly, they used to be able to win the Windhill and Wrose ward, but that has become reliably Labour. Labour’s other handicap in the seat has been the relative success of the Green Party, which has been winning in the Shipley ward and its predecessors since the year 2000. But the Greens withdrew their candidate at the 2017 general election, and Philip Davies saw the Conservative majority cut from 9,624 to just 4,681 (they were rumours on the night he had lost). Labour then went on to win the Shipley ward from the Greens in the 2018 local elections (although the Greens managed to win it again the following year). Additionally, Labour has become increasingly competitive in Bingley ward, which they haven’t won since the late 1990s.
At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won by 80 seats, the swing in Shipley was just 1.4% in their favour, giving Philip Davies a not particularly convincing majority over Labour of 6,242. The Lib Dems polled just 5.9% of the vote. It appears that the Conservatives are reliant on third party strength, as they were some decades ago, to minimise the chance of Labour winning Shipley again in the future.