Bedford

[Deleted]

Apr 6, 2020 17:35:10 GMT heslingtonian said:

I do wonder whether the fact the Conservative candidate here looked extremely young may have cost them this seat given how close it was. Perhaps a bit unfair if true but some voters may have judged him on this.

Any seat that's that close will have hundreds of small, seemingly unimportant factors that would have been enough to swing it on their own and that may well be one of them

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 14.8% 477/650
Owner-occupied 59.2% 488/650
Private rented 19.4% 137/650
Social rented 19.4% 236/650
White 74.4% 556/650
Black 5.2% 102/650
Asian 15.4% 68/650
Managerial & professional 27.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 27.7%
Degree level 25.1% 340/650
No qualifications 22.4% 353/650
Students 10.3% 140/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 55.8% 452/573
Private rented 24.6% 119/573
Social rented 19.6% 169/573
White 69.5%
Black 6.6%
Asian 16.7%
Managerial & professional 29.6% 354/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.8% 148/573
Degree level 32.1% 284/573
No qualifications 19.7% 211/573



General Election 2019: Bedford

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Mohammad Yasin 20,491 43.3 −3.5
Conservative Ryan Henson 20,346 43.0 −2.2
Liberal Democrats Henry Vann 4,608 9.7 +3.8
Green Adrian Spurrell 960 2.0 -0.1
Brexit Party Charles Bunker 896 1.9

Lab Majority 145 0.3 −1.3

Turnout 47,301 66.1 −1.4

Labour hold

Swing 0.7 Lab to C

[Pete Whitehead]

The Boundary Commission have not heeded wiser counsel and their revised recommendations in Bedfordshire are the same as their intitial plans (though there is nothing unwise about the proposals for this seat).
In the case of Bedford which is just within quota, the only changes are to realign with new ward boundaries. This involves the removal or addition of one or two new estates on the edge of the town for a net loss of about 500 voters. Theoretically this could be enough to change the winner based on the 2019 notional results, but that's only a reflection of how small the Labour majority is and if anything the changes are likely to favour Labour.
Effectively the seat is unchanged.