Post by John Chanin on Apr 1, 2020 12:57:32 GMT
Southend is full of London emigres, many of whom commute back to the city on the fast railway line, which takes just 45 minutes to Fenchurch Street. Most of the commuters live on the west side of Southend, which is the more middle-class section of the town. The seat starts from just west of the town centre (which is in Southend East) to the borough boundary, which is marked mainly by parks, although the built up area with Castle Point is continuous in the centre.
The seat can be divided into 3 by the main east-west arteries - the A13 London Road, and the A127 Arterial Road. In the southern section alongside the estuary are clustered the better off and the commuters, next to Leigh and Chalkwell stations. Leigh considers itself separate and a cut above plebeian Southend, and expresses this politically by voting Liberal Democrat. Leigh is full of bars, restaurants, boutiques, and other accoutrements of middle-class living. The central section is more workaday, with smaller houses, and lower incomes. Westborough is part of the town centre and reflects its demographic statitistics and voting behaviour. The rest of the area is comfortably suburban, with Belfairs Park to the west. North of the arterial road is rather different. Eastwood on the west is almost wholly modern post-war development, and being a long way from the trains has high levels of car ownership. In the centre is a large industrial area on the south side of Southend airport, now reopened for passenger traffic. The airport itself is outside the constituency in Rochford District but an important local factor for the quiet residential districts on the edge of the town on the way to Rochford. As in some other parts of south Essex the seat is notable for a very low number of social housing tenants, and is almost wholly white outside Westborough.
In local politics this side of Southend has always been the Conservative stronghold, although there was a strong Liberal challenge in the 1990s and 2000s, now dissipated. The Liberal Democrats regularly hold only Leigh ward, and Labour only Westborough ward, with the Conservatives usually winning everywhere else, although not always by much. However in 2019 they won only 3 of the 9 wards and lost control of the Council to a rainbow coalition of everyone else. Nationally this seat remains very safe for the Conservatives, despite a large UKIP vote, in line with elsewhere in south Essex, in the middle of the last decade. The MP elected here in 2019 was veteran David Amess, first elected for Basildon in 1983, before chicken running to this seat in 1997 in succession to Paul Channon. Following his miserable assassination at a constituency surgery in October 2021, lawyer Anna Firth was elected unopposed by other major parties.
The boundary changes here will transform this seat into one more politically competitive. The whole of the Labour voting town centre is moved in from Southend East, while the two wards north of the arterial road go the other way. Luckily for the Conservatives the original proposal to move Conservative West Leigh ward to Castle Point has been reversed, meaning there will be 4 safe Conservative wards competing against 4 safe Labour wards, with one marginal ward, and Leigh, which votes Liberal Democrat at local elections, but undoubtedly favours the Conservatives at national elections. The new seat should be Conservative in an average year, but will be a marginal winnable for Labour in a good year.
Census data: owner-occupied 74% (119/573 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (142nd), social rented 7% (566th).
:White 93%, Black 2%, Asian 2%, Mixed 2%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 38% (204th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (434th)
: Degree 24% (346th), Minimal qualifications 39% (203rd)
: Students 2.5% (464th), Over 65 19% (160th)
The seat can be divided into 3 by the main east-west arteries - the A13 London Road, and the A127 Arterial Road. In the southern section alongside the estuary are clustered the better off and the commuters, next to Leigh and Chalkwell stations. Leigh considers itself separate and a cut above plebeian Southend, and expresses this politically by voting Liberal Democrat. Leigh is full of bars, restaurants, boutiques, and other accoutrements of middle-class living. The central section is more workaday, with smaller houses, and lower incomes. Westborough is part of the town centre and reflects its demographic statitistics and voting behaviour. The rest of the area is comfortably suburban, with Belfairs Park to the west. North of the arterial road is rather different. Eastwood on the west is almost wholly modern post-war development, and being a long way from the trains has high levels of car ownership. In the centre is a large industrial area on the south side of Southend airport, now reopened for passenger traffic. The airport itself is outside the constituency in Rochford District but an important local factor for the quiet residential districts on the edge of the town on the way to Rochford. As in some other parts of south Essex the seat is notable for a very low number of social housing tenants, and is almost wholly white outside Westborough.
In local politics this side of Southend has always been the Conservative stronghold, although there was a strong Liberal challenge in the 1990s and 2000s, now dissipated. The Liberal Democrats regularly hold only Leigh ward, and Labour only Westborough ward, with the Conservatives usually winning everywhere else, although not always by much. However in 2019 they won only 3 of the 9 wards and lost control of the Council to a rainbow coalition of everyone else. Nationally this seat remains very safe for the Conservatives, despite a large UKIP vote, in line with elsewhere in south Essex, in the middle of the last decade. The MP elected here in 2019 was veteran David Amess, first elected for Basildon in 1983, before chicken running to this seat in 1997 in succession to Paul Channon. Following his miserable assassination at a constituency surgery in October 2021, lawyer Anna Firth was elected unopposed by other major parties.
The boundary changes here will transform this seat into one more politically competitive. The whole of the Labour voting town centre is moved in from Southend East, while the two wards north of the arterial road go the other way. Luckily for the Conservatives the original proposal to move Conservative West Leigh ward to Castle Point has been reversed, meaning there will be 4 safe Conservative wards competing against 4 safe Labour wards, with one marginal ward, and Leigh, which votes Liberal Democrat at local elections, but undoubtedly favours the Conservatives at national elections. The new seat should be Conservative in an average year, but will be a marginal winnable for Labour in a good year.
Census data: owner-occupied 74% (119/573 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (142nd), social rented 7% (566th).
:White 93%, Black 2%, Asian 2%, Mixed 2%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 38% (204th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (434th)
: Degree 24% (346th), Minimal qualifications 39% (203rd)
: Students 2.5% (464th), Over 65 19% (160th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 20,086 | 46.1% | 22,175 | 49.8% | 26,046 | 55.2% | 27,555 | 59.2% |
Labour | 5,850 | 13.4% | 8,154 | 18.3% | 16,046 | 34.0% | 13,096 | 28.1% |
Liberal Democrat | 12,816 | 29.4% | 4,129 | 9.3% | 2,110 | 4.5% | 5,312 | 11.4% |
UKIP | 1,714 | 3.9% | 7,803 | 17.5% | 1,666 | 3.5% | ||
Green | 644 | 1.5% | 2,083 | 4.7% | 831 | 1.8% | ||
Others | 2,496 | 5.8% | 165 | 0.4% | 492 | 1.0% | 574 | 1.2% |
Majority | 7,270 | 16.7% | 14,021 | 31.5% | 10,000 | 21.2% | 12,286 | 31.1% |
