Kingston and Surbiton

[bjornhattan]

Dec 17, 2020 16:56:40 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 17, 2020 16:38:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

Then again, you have to be careful with that logic - neither Wiltshire nor Buckinghamshire have obvious county towns, despite the names.

Buckingham seems fairly obvious for Buckinghamshire. Suffolk and Essex aren't obvious from the name.

Buckingham seems obvious, but it's Aylesbury which has been the county town for over 300 years now.

[Merseymike]

Dec 17, 2020 17:00:23 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 17, 2020 16:56:40 GMT Andrew_S said:

Buckingham seems fairly obvious for Buckinghamshire. Suffolk and Essex aren't obvious from the name.

Buckingham seems obvious, but it's Aylesbury which has been the county town for over 300 years now.

Lancaster remains the county town of Lancashire even though Preston is its administrative centre.

[carlton43]

Dec 17, 2020 16:56:40 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 17, 2020 16:38:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

Then again, you have to be careful with that logic - neither Wiltshire nor Buckinghamshire have obvious county towns, despite the names.

Buckingham seems fairly obvious for Buckinghamshire. Suffolk and Essex aren't obvious from the name.

Well, No!

South Folk  and  East Saxons is 'OBVIOUS' from the names.
!

[timrollpickering]

Yes but neither of those are towns in those counties.

[Andrew_S]

Dec 17, 2020 23:36:43 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 17, 2020 16:56:40 GMT Andrew_S said:

Buckingham seems fairly obvious for Buckinghamshire. Suffolk and Essex aren't obvious from the name.

Well, No!

South Folk  and  East Saxons is 'OBVIOUS' from the names.
!

That's true, but I was talking about trying to work out the name of the traditional county town from the name of the county. Bit of a silly exercise I know.

[Deleted]

Dec 18, 2020 0:16:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 17, 2020 23:36:43 GMT carlton43 said:

Well, No!

South Folk  and  East Saxons is 'OBVIOUS' from the names.
!

That's true, but I was talking about trying to work out the name of the traditional county town from the name of the county. Bit of a silly exercise I know.

Although it does tell you that you're probably looking for an Essex town that was important in the early Middle Ages, which must narrow it down a bit

[Deleted]

The swing from 2015 to 2019 was just shy of 11% here.

[Pete Whitehead]

Both Richmond Park and this constituency are over quota on current boundaries and to cut Richmond Park down to size, the Boundary Commission initially proposed moving the Coombe Vale ward from that seat to this one. This would have necessitated the removal of two existing wards and it was proposed to move the then Old Malden and St James wards (covering most of New Malden) to Wimbledon.
The revised plans offer a different proposal which seems less satisfactory, at least as far as this seat and Richmond Park are concerned. This envisages the removal of just one ward - Grove (now more or less covered by the Kingston Town ward) and as this covers Kingston town centre this has made it neccessary to rename both seats. This one will now ne Surbiton & The Maldens.
Grove/Kingston Town is one of the stronger Lib Dem wards within this constituency but the overall balance will hardly be affected.

2019 notional result - Surbiton & The Maldens

LD	28342	50.6%
Con	19273	34.4%
Lab	5962	10.7%
Grn	923	1.6%
BxP	748	1.3%
Oth	714	1.3%
Majority	9069	16.2%

[Andrew_S]

Estimate of how each ward in the proposed Surbiton & The Maldens seat would have voted at the 2019 general election based on local election results.

	Con	Lab	LD	Grn	Brx	Oth
Alexandra	1927	519	2739	88	67	66
Berrylands	1966	423	2810	92	70	69
Beverley	2291	630	2713	100	76	74
Chessington North & Hook	1558	357	2335	79	60	59
Chessington South	1802	385	2646	88	67	66
Norbiton	777	1054	2601	83	63	62
Old Malden	2743	527	1558	80	61	60
St James	2269	471	2351	88	67	66
St Mark's	1114	613	2641	80	61	60
Surbiton Hill	1365	427	3123	92	69	68
Tolworth & Hook Rise	1339	581	2847	82	62	61
	19151	5987	28364	952	723	711

All wards in the proposed seat are currently in the Kingston & Surbiton constituency.

[batman]

I've no doubt that the Conservatives would have been ahead of Labour in Norbiton because of tactical voting, though.

[iain]

Yeah these estimates don’t have too much relation to reality - unfortunately, local results in most places didn’t have much predictive value for the Lib Dem vote in 2019.

[iain]

Jan 4, 2023 14:54:05 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jan 4, 2023 8:54:55 GMT iain said:

Yeah these estimates don’t have too much relation to reality - unfortunately, local results in most places didn’t have much predictive value for the Lib Dem vote in 2019.

As you can see my overall constituency estimates for the proposed new seats are coming up with very similar results to Pete's despite the fact I've done them all from scratch myself. Are you saying the individual ward estimates I've done are unreliable but the overall constituency estimates are reliable?

I'm just looking at the ward numbers. The overall constituency estimates may balance out though I'd imagine they'd end up rather off as well. I think correlating Lib Dem support with the 'remain' vote rather than their local performance makes more sense for 2019, but that obviously has difficulties. In K&S, for example, the Lib Dems lost three wards, but Old Malden wasn't one of them.

[Pete Whitehead]

I do have the Conservatives just ahead of Labour in Norbiton in 2019 but some of my other figures may be 'wrong' because of the difficulties with the Remain/local election vote dichotomy. i think in this seat, as far as the notional result is concerned it doesn't cause a problem as Grove/Kingston Town is probably strongly Remain as well as being a strong Lib Dem local ward. The problems would come as compared with wards like the Chessingtons on one hand and the Maldens on the other - as they all stay in this seat that doesn't cause a problem but that sort of thing could do elsewhere. Its really only an issue that affects the relatively small number of seats where the Lib Dems are strong and is generally much less of an issue in Conservative/Labour battlegrounds (though it may play a bit in somewhere like Reading East)

[batman]

OK I'm confused. I'd like to write a profile for this seat or its equivalent under the new boundaries. What are the final recommendations for this? I thought central Kingston was staying in the seat?

[andrewp]

Jul 8, 2023 7:53:35 GMT batman said:

OK I'm confused. I'd like to write a profile for this seat or its equivalent under the new boundaries. What are the final recommendations for this? I thought central Kingston was staying in the seat?

It does I think. Compared to the current seat, it loses Old Malden and St James wards and gains Coombe Vale

the wards are Alexandra, Berrylands,  Beverley, Chessington North and Hook, Chessington South, Coombe Vale, Grove, Norbiton, St Marks, Surbiton Hill, Tolworth and Hook Rise.

[batman]

thanks Andrew, that's what I thought. Unless someone else gets in first (max might fancy it perhaps), Kingston & Surbiton will be my next new-boundaries profile.