Kingston and Surbiton

[iain]

Chessington North & Hook is not held that overwhelmingly - you may have meant Tolworth & Hook Rise? St Mark’s would also fit into this category.

[timrollpickering]

Mar 31, 2020 15:56:41 GMT @barnabymarder said:

and the small (though not very picturesque) village of Malden Rushett,

What is your definition of "picturesque"?!

[Robert Waller]

I am in the process of composing a replacement for the regretted loss of the original profile here.

I shall not undertake to come up with an extensive analysis of Malden Rushett, picturesque or otherwise ...

[timrollpickering]

Unfortunately it's the worst possible time to go and visit the Shy Horse or the Star. Otherwise I'd recommend you go and write it there.

[Robert Waller]

This is the outer south west London constituency that has elected the current leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey. It is fully understandable that leaders tend to represent strongholds for their party, but it is much more unusual for them to have an interrupted tenure, as Davie did between 2015 and 2017. Both the reasons for his five successes here since 1997, and for his one failure, are worthy of analysis.

Sometimes a seat becomes consistently Liberal (Democrat) after an initial byelection success, as the party is able to use its limited resources more effectively, and because a government is not being elected then and therefore the party does not need to be a credible provider of the Prime Minister, and also because a grouping perceived to be in the centre of politics is well positioned to pick up a midterm anti-governmental swing from either Labour or Conservative: see for example the impact of byelection victories such as Rochdale, Isle of Ely and Berwick upon Tweed in the 1970s. This is not the case in Kingston and Surbiton, however. Here two other features come into play. Firstly, another route to parliamentary success for the Liberal Democrats (and their predecessors) was to make breakthroughs in local government elections first, then build on that boost to electoral credibility. Secondly, at certain times there are certain issues that mean that Liberal Democrat policies suit the demographics of a constituency. Both of these are very much in play in Kingston and Surbiton.

The London Borough of Kingston upon Thames was lost by the Conservatives and went to no overall control in 1986, and remained so till 1994, when the Liberal Democrats gained a majority for the first time. Since then, they have won overall majorities in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2018, when they returned 39 of the 48 councillors. The Lib Dems are clearly one of the two ‘governing parties’ in this borough and indeed one could say rank as the local ‘natural party of government’ over the past three decades. This century the only time when they didn’t win a majority on Kingston council was in 2014, which may be paired with Davey’s loss in 2015 as a ‘junior coalition party’ penalty, a fate he shared with his neighbour and fellow Cabinet member Vince Cable. Labour has been so weakened as to have failed to win more than three seats in any election since 1998, and in some, like 2010 and 2018, won none at all. This has itself led to a tradition of tactical voting that has further helped the Liberal Democrats at both municipal and parliamentary levels to become the dominant party in the borough of Kingston.

Linked to this, and especially of importance in 2019, was the demographic profile of this area. According to the most recent available census (2011), over 38% of residents aged 16-74 were educated to degree level, compared with 27% on average nationally, placing Kingston & Surbiton in the top decile of constituencies on this statistical measure. The same is true of the percentage of those employed in professional occupations. These characteristics are connected to the local electorate’s views on the key issue of the 2019 election. The seat is estimated to have voted 59% remain in the 2016 referendum. Ed Davey regained it in 2017 with a majority of over 4,000 and increased his share by a further 6% to an absolute majority (51%) and a five figure numerical lead in 2019. This was a result fit for a party leader, which is what he became in the delayed August 2020 contest having been acting leader since Jo Swinson’s retirement in December 2019.

Kingston & Surbiton, apart from the 2015 aberration, has been an appropriate political base too. It is geographically situated in the middle of the swathe of Liberal Democrat seats on the outer south western edge of Greater London. It does not include the four northern Kingston wards of Canbury, Coombe Hill, Coombe Vale and Tudor which are in Richmond Park, which has itself been won by Liberal Democrats more often than not since its creation in 1997. Cross Kingston Bridge from the centre of the town and one is immediately in Twickenham, the seat of Lib Dem former leader Vincent Cable and itself only taken by the Conservatives in the disastrous year of 2015. To the east beyond Old Malden there is a boundary with Sutton and Cheam’s Worcester Park.

Demographically, as has been seen, Kingston & Surbiton is socially upscale and well educated, but not to such an extent as to encourage monolithic Conservatism. Some of the borough’s wealthiest areas up hill and by the park in Coombe wards are not in this seat. Overall Kingston & Surbiton is only 64% ‘white British’, and this figure drops further in the most working class ward, Norbiton (which was the site of Labour’s rare triumphs alluded to above) as well as Beverley in New Malden, which is the heart of probably the largest Korean community in Britain (in 2018 it elected the first Korean councillor in London, Jaesung Ha, Liberal Democrat), and Tolworth & Hook Rise close to the A3 Kingston bypass section. There is plenty of terraced housing in neighbourhoods such as central Kingston’s Grove ward, and there are tower blocks built as social housing in Norbiton. Further south beyond the archetypal suburbia of Surbiton (remember The Good Life?) lies Chessington, which has a reputation for being one of the lower cost housing areas in Greater London or Surrey, which it borders. At the far tip of the salient into Surrey in Chessington South ward, beyond the eponymous theme park, one can find the small village of Malden Rushett, with its two arguably quaint pubs, the Star and the Shy Horse. All the wards covering the aforementioned communities were won by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2018 borough council elections; in fact, the only ward in this seat retained by the Tories then was Old Malden, across the A3 to the east.

Kingston is a substantial centre of an economic and social sub-region, as well as of Ed Davey’s constituency. Its town centre is a commercial hub of the Greater London periphery, with the largest retail shops for miles around, for example in the Bentall Centre. It is noteworthy in education, with Kingston Grammar School and Tiffin School, plus one of Kingston University’s campuses (the other is in Coombe Hill ward in the Richmond Park seat). It is also the local government ‘capital’ not only of its own London Borough but hosting Surrey’s County Hall as well, although it has not formally been placed in that county since 1965. All three leaders of the most popular English parties have constituencies in London, but Ed Davey’s ‘manor’ has the feel and ambience of a significant unit in its own right. Given that its electorate almost reached 82,000 in 2019, it needs to lose a ward, at the least, in the forthcoming boundary changes; but even without the boost garnered by most party leaders in their own seats in their first contest after their elevation, it would be highly unlikely that Ed Davey will be in any trouble here next time.

General Election 2019: Kingston and Surbiton

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 31,103 51.1 +6.4
Conservative Aphra Brandreth 20,614 33.9 –4.2
Labour Leanne Werner 6,528 10.7 –4.1
Green Sharron Sumner 1,038 1.7 +0.8
Brexit Party Scott Holman 788 1.3 N/A
Independent James Giles 458 0.8 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Chinners Chinnery 193 0.3 +0.0
UKIP Roger Glencross 124 0.2 –0.9

LD Majority 10,489 17.2 +10.6

Turnout 60,846 74.2 –2.0

Liberal Democrats hold Swing +5.3 C to LD

2011 Census

Age 65+ 13.0% 550/650
Owner-occupied 63.6% 412/650
Private rented 22.3% 92/650
Social rented 12.4% 468/650
White 74.9% 553/650
Black 2.6% 149/650
Asian 16.4% 61/650
(Other Asian - mainly Korean, 9,872 8.4%)
Managerial & professional 39.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 15.3%
Degree level 38.6% 58/650
No qualifications 14.5% 615/650
Students 13.6% 72/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 60.9% 385/573
Private rented 27.4% 85/573
Social rented 11.8% 439/573
White 69.3%
Black 2.9%
Asian 17.2%
Managerial & professional 42.2% 69/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.0% 525/573
Degree level 48.3% 44/573
No qualifications 12.8% 524/573

[pragmaticidealist]

At present it seems likely that the next general election will be the first since 2010 in which the incumbent Lib Dem leader won't face a fierce battle in their own seat.

[timrollpickering]

Surrey County Council is moving to the edge of Reigate:

www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-set-based-19102357

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 15, 2020 22:57:16 GMT timrollpickering said:

Surrey County Council is moving to the edge of Reigate:

www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-set-based-19102357

Interesting. Woking was tipped to be the destination earlier in the process, and Guildford has always been in the frame, but Reigate is a bit of a left-field choice.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The centre of population of Surrey is in the north-west, so Reigate could be an attempt to reassure residents in the other bits that they are not going to be ignored.

[timrollpickering]

Reigate is presumably a neutral compromise choice to avoid the Woking-Guildford rivalry. Also the Reigate-Red Hill conurbation is where the county's east-west transport links meet - the M25 is just to the north, the A25 runs through the town, the North Downs line is the only east-west line across the county (although it's not exactly a busy highly used line but symbolism) and there's strong A-roads to the south west of the county.

[Andrew_S]

Without looking it up I was trying to think what the traditional county town of Surrey was/is and I can't think what the answer might be. There isn't an obvious candidate like there is in most counties.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 17, 2020 6:14:45 GMT Andrew_S said:

Without looking it up I was trying to think what the traditional county town of Surrey was/is and I can't think what the answer might be. There isn't an obvious candidate like there is in most counties.

Guildford is the obvious candidate

[Arthur Figgis]

Southwark.

[The Bishop]

Dec 17, 2020 7:09:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 17, 2020 6:14:45 GMT Andrew_S said:

Without looking it up I was trying to think what the traditional county town of Surrey was/is and I can't think what the answer might be. There isn't an obvious candidate like there is in most counties.

Guildford is the obvious candidate

And it was indeed the historic county town according to Wikipedia.

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 17, 2020 12:05:08 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 17, 2020 7:09:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Guildford is the obvious candidate

And it was indeed the historic county town according to Wikipedia.

But the county hall, prior to Kingston, was in Newington, close to the Elephant and Castle.  That got taken into the County of London, so they moved to Kingston, what happens further down the line is that London expands again ...

Then again, "county town" and "county HQ" aren't necessarily the same thing.

[timrollpickering]

Dec 17, 2020 12:05:08 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 17, 2020 7:09:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Guildford is the obvious candidate

And it was indeed the historic county town according to Wikipedia.

It depends which bit you look at. The talk pages reveal a huge depth of confusion as to what a county town actually is and just where the documents supposedly conferring the status on Guildford actually are. There seems to be a suggestion that a previous curator of a Guildford museum made a definitive statement without producing the evidence and one of the first very first acts of their successor was to amend the website to remove the claim.

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 17, 2020 14:04:16 GMT timrollpickering said:

Dec 17, 2020 12:05:08 GMT The Bishop said:

And it was indeed the historic county town according to Wikipedia.

It depends which bit you look at. The talk pages reveal a huge depth of confusion as to what a county town actually is and just where the documents supposedly conferring the status on Guildford actually are. There seems to be a suggestion that a previous curator of a Guildford museum made a definitive statement without producing the evidence and one of the first very first acts of their successor was to amend the website to remove the claim.

For many historic counties it's obvious; Staffordshire was the County of Stafford, Bedfordshire was the County of Bedford, Hampshire was the County of [Sout]hampton and so on, even when county hall was somewhere else (Winchester in the case of Hampshire).  Surrey's name doesn't give any obvious clue, however.

[bjornhattan]

Dec 17, 2020 15:58:06 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Dec 17, 2020 14:04:16 GMT timrollpickering said:

It depends which bit you look at. The talk pages reveal a huge depth of confusion as to what a county town actually is and just where the documents supposedly conferring the status on Guildford actually are. There seems to be a suggestion that a previous curator of a Guildford museum made a definitive statement without producing the evidence and one of the first very first acts of their successor was to amend the website to remove the claim.

For many historic counties it's obvious; Staffordshire was the County of Stafford, Bedfordshire was the County of Bedford, Hampshire was the County of [Sout]hampton and so on, even when county hall was somewhere else (Winchester in the case of Hampshire).  Surrey's name doesn't give any obvious clue, however.

Then again, you have to be careful with that logic - neither Wiltshire nor Buckinghamshire have obvious county towns, despite the names.

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 17, 2020 16:38:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 17, 2020 15:58:06 GMT Chris from Brum said:

For many historic counties it's obvious; Staffordshire was the County of Stafford, Bedfordshire was the County of Bedford, Hampshire was the County of [Sout]hampton and so on, even when county hall was somewhere else (Winchester in the case of Hampshire).  Surrey's name doesn't give any obvious clue, however.

Then again, you have to be careful with that logic - neither Wiltshire nor Buckinghamshire have obvious county towns, despite the names.

Bucks was the County of Buckingham, even though county hall was in Aylesbury, while Wiltshire was named for Wilton, again despite the county HQ being in Trowbridge.

[Andrew_S]

Dec 17, 2020 16:38:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 17, 2020 15:58:06 GMT Chris from Brum said:

For many historic counties it's obvious; Staffordshire was the County of Stafford, Bedfordshire was the County of Bedford, Hampshire was the County of [Sout]hampton and so on, even when county hall was somewhere else (Winchester in the case of Hampshire).  Surrey's name doesn't give any obvious clue, however.

Then again, you have to be careful with that logic - neither Wiltshire nor Buckinghamshire have obvious county towns, despite the names.

Buckingham seems fairly obvious for Buckinghamshire. Suffolk and Essex aren't obvious from the name.