Post by greenhert on Mar 31, 2020 15:18:42 GMT
The constituency of Nottingham South, in whose boundaries I currently live, is an important exercise into how the effects of demographic change transform constituencies permanently over a long period of time, irrespective of the overall election result.
The current incarnation of Nottingham South (very different to the pre-1974 Nottingham South) was created in 1983 from most of the old Nottingham West constituency. It contains the most prosperous areas of the city of Nottingham, including Wollaton and the Park Estate, Nottingham University and most of the relevant student accommodation, and the Clifton Estate, once the largest council estate in Europe (this also has a campus of Nottingham Trent University). By non-London standards it is a very divided constituency in economic terms; Wollaton is the wealthiest and best-educated ward in Nottingham but the Clifton Estate has the classic economic problems of old council estates. It also has one of the highest proportions of students in the country (35%) which accounts for a below average turnout, and a large proportion of public sector workers which accounts for the steady long-term decline of the Conservative vote in this constituency at a local and national level. Almost all of the non-Labour councillors elected in Nottingham since 1995 have represented wards in this constituency.
Given that it was notionally Conservative upon its creation, the Labour MP for Nottingham West, Michael English, decided to contest the Labour nomination for Nottingham North instead, but he lost to William Whitlock (who was subsequently unseated anyway). Martin Brandon-Bravo represented the seat from 1983 to 1992 for the Conservatives until his defeat by Labour's Alan Simpson, who retired in 2010. The Conservatives achieved a 7.2% swing in 2010 but this was not enough to prevent Lillian Greenwood holding the seat, and this seat can now be considered a safe Labour seat for the foreseeable future.
The current incarnation of Nottingham South (very different to the pre-1974 Nottingham South) was created in 1983 from most of the old Nottingham West constituency. It contains the most prosperous areas of the city of Nottingham, including Wollaton and the Park Estate, Nottingham University and most of the relevant student accommodation, and the Clifton Estate, once the largest council estate in Europe (this also has a campus of Nottingham Trent University). By non-London standards it is a very divided constituency in economic terms; Wollaton is the wealthiest and best-educated ward in Nottingham but the Clifton Estate has the classic economic problems of old council estates. It also has one of the highest proportions of students in the country (35%) which accounts for a below average turnout, and a large proportion of public sector workers which accounts for the steady long-term decline of the Conservative vote in this constituency at a local and national level. Almost all of the non-Labour councillors elected in Nottingham since 1995 have represented wards in this constituency.
Given that it was notionally Conservative upon its creation, the Labour MP for Nottingham West, Michael English, decided to contest the Labour nomination for Nottingham North instead, but he lost to William Whitlock (who was subsequently unseated anyway). Martin Brandon-Bravo represented the seat from 1983 to 1992 for the Conservatives until his defeat by Labour's Alan Simpson, who retired in 2010. The Conservatives achieved a 7.2% swing in 2010 but this was not enough to prevent Lillian Greenwood holding the seat, and this seat can now be considered a safe Labour seat for the foreseeable future.
