Post by andrewp on Mar 30, 2020 18:53:28 GMT
Ok, here’s a go at TAUNTON DEANE
The Taunton constituency gained its Deane in the 2010 boundary changes when it lost 4000 ( very Conservative) voters in the Dulverton area to Bridgwater constituency, bringing it into line with the Taunton Deane district boundaries. Since then Taunton Deane council has merged with West Somerset to become Somerset West and Taunton so the constituency name feels a little in need of an update.
The seat is now oversized with 89,000 voters so will very likely be pared down in the next boundary changes. That will probably involve the removal of some more rural areas so it’s a fair bet that it will help the Liberal Democrat’s. Taunton Town accounts for about 2/3rds of the constituency, Taunton is the county town of Somerset and has good transport links via the M5 and A358/A303. It is the home to a lot of relatively large Public Sector organisations including Somerset County Council, the Uk hydrographic office and Musgrove Park Hospital. It is also home to ( in this authors opinion) the best cricket ground in the UK.
The rest of the constituency contains the small town of Wellington, home to the public school whose former pupils include Lord Archer and John Cleese, which is politically very even, the small town/ big village of Wiveliscombe and then villages in the Quantock Hills to the North, the Blackdown Hills to the South, and out into the Somerset levels to the East.
Between 1992 and 2015, this was an Uber marginal between the Lib Dem’s and the Conservatives. Jackie Ballard gained the seat for the Lib Dem’s in 1997, only to be defeated in 2001 by the Conservative Adrian Flook, on the back of fox hunting voters on Exmoor. It’s fair to say that the Lib Dem’s wouldn’t have lost in 2001 on the current boundaries. It was regained for the Lib Dem’s in 2005 by Jeremy Browne, who was very much from the Orange Book wing of the Lib Dem’s and a member of the coalition government. He surprised many by standing down in 2015 and former local TV newsreader Rebecca Pow gained for the Conservatives by fully 15000 votes.
Taunton town is pretty good for the Liberal Democrat’s in local elections- they are very strong in both middle class areas like Comeytrowe ( home to many County Council and NHS workers) in the South West of the Town as well as working class Halcon, and Victoria in the east of the Town. The Conservatives strongest areas of the town are in the south around Killams, Mountfields and Wilton. In their miracle year of 2019, the Lib Dem’s won all the council seats in the town apart from 3. 2 for Labour in Priorswood and 1 for the Conservatives in Vivary ward. In the constituency as a whole in May 2019, in a Brexit backlash, but also on the back of an unpopular Conservative administration, 27 Liberal Democrat councillors were elected to just 4 Conservatives.
This gave the Lib Dem’s some hope for December, but in the end there was a 3.4% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem, reducing Rebecca Pow’s majority from 15887 in 2017 ( the biggest ever Conservative majority in Taunton) down to 11700. The Lib Dem’s increased their vote by 7.6%,, mostly by squeezing Labour back down, but the Conservative vote went up 0.7% aswell. It feels like the constituency will get closer again, but the Lib Dem’s are probably 2 elections away from victory.
The Taunton constituency gained its Deane in the 2010 boundary changes when it lost 4000 ( very Conservative) voters in the Dulverton area to Bridgwater constituency, bringing it into line with the Taunton Deane district boundaries. Since then Taunton Deane council has merged with West Somerset to become Somerset West and Taunton so the constituency name feels a little in need of an update.
The seat is now oversized with 89,000 voters so will very likely be pared down in the next boundary changes. That will probably involve the removal of some more rural areas so it’s a fair bet that it will help the Liberal Democrat’s. Taunton Town accounts for about 2/3rds of the constituency, Taunton is the county town of Somerset and has good transport links via the M5 and A358/A303. It is the home to a lot of relatively large Public Sector organisations including Somerset County Council, the Uk hydrographic office and Musgrove Park Hospital. It is also home to ( in this authors opinion) the best cricket ground in the UK.
The rest of the constituency contains the small town of Wellington, home to the public school whose former pupils include Lord Archer and John Cleese, which is politically very even, the small town/ big village of Wiveliscombe and then villages in the Quantock Hills to the North, the Blackdown Hills to the South, and out into the Somerset levels to the East.
Between 1992 and 2015, this was an Uber marginal between the Lib Dem’s and the Conservatives. Jackie Ballard gained the seat for the Lib Dem’s in 1997, only to be defeated in 2001 by the Conservative Adrian Flook, on the back of fox hunting voters on Exmoor. It’s fair to say that the Lib Dem’s wouldn’t have lost in 2001 on the current boundaries. It was regained for the Lib Dem’s in 2005 by Jeremy Browne, who was very much from the Orange Book wing of the Lib Dem’s and a member of the coalition government. He surprised many by standing down in 2015 and former local TV newsreader Rebecca Pow gained for the Conservatives by fully 15000 votes.
Taunton town is pretty good for the Liberal Democrat’s in local elections- they are very strong in both middle class areas like Comeytrowe ( home to many County Council and NHS workers) in the South West of the Town as well as working class Halcon, and Victoria in the east of the Town. The Conservatives strongest areas of the town are in the south around Killams, Mountfields and Wilton. In their miracle year of 2019, the Lib Dem’s won all the council seats in the town apart from 3. 2 for Labour in Priorswood and 1 for the Conservatives in Vivary ward. In the constituency as a whole in May 2019, in a Brexit backlash, but also on the back of an unpopular Conservative administration, 27 Liberal Democrat councillors were elected to just 4 Conservatives.
This gave the Lib Dem’s some hope for December, but in the end there was a 3.4% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem, reducing Rebecca Pow’s majority from 15887 in 2017 ( the biggest ever Conservative majority in Taunton) down to 11700. The Lib Dem’s increased their vote by 7.6%,, mostly by squeezing Labour back down, but the Conservative vote went up 0.7% aswell. It feels like the constituency will get closer again, but the Lib Dem’s are probably 2 elections away from victory.
