Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2020 11:12:42 GMT
I shall start with my 'home' constituency
Hertsmere
Hertsmere came into being in the major review ahead of the 1983 election though it can trace its roots a little bit further back as it is recognisably the successor the South Hertfordshire seat created in 1974. That was an entirely new seat created from a variety of sources. Potters Bar (which had been in MIddlesex before being added to Hertfordshire on the creation of the GLC) came from the abolished Enfield West and brought with it its MP, Cecil Parkinson. The old Elstree Rural District, comprising Borehamwood, Elstree and Shenley, had formed part of Reginald Maudling’s Barnet seat from which it also been separated by the inclusion of Chipping Barnet in Greater London. Aldenham parish (dominated by the town of Radlett) was added from South West Hertfordshire. All these areas were included within the new Hertsmere borough created in the local government review of the early 70s. South Hertfordshire was completed by three parishes from the Southern end of the St Albans Rural District – Colney Heath, London Colney and St Stephen.
In 1983 the St Albans wards were removed with the exception of London Colney and replaced by the remaining part of Hertsmere borough in the form of Bushey from South West Hertfordshire. In 1997 London Colney was also removed leaving the boundaries as identical to those of Hertsmere borough and they remained unchanged in 2010.
As much of the description above indicates, this is very much an ‘Outer Outer London’ seat which houses a large number of commuters to the city. The whole borough was within the Metropolitan Police district until the turn of the 21st Century when it passed to the Hertfordshire constabulary and most of it is within the 020 London telephone code area.
Apart from the common attributes of a proximity to and certain dependence on London, there is little internal cohesion to this seat with limited communication between the main towns. The main lines of communication run from North to South here – into and out of London. The constituency is traversed by the M1 and A1 Motorways and the A41 and A5 and by the Midland and East Coast rail-lines – Potters Bar is on the East Coast line, Elstree-Borehamwood and Radlett on the Midland line and Bushey Station (which lies outside the borough) is on the West Coast line. Bushey is largely a suburb of Watford and is connected to Stanmore to the South. Borehamwood is connected to St Albans and to Barnet and Potters Bar retains residual links with Enfield as well as Hatfield to the North. Although many residents work outside the borough, there is a significant home-grown industry in the form of the film industry which has been based at Elstree for over a century now and remains the site of a BBC studio and the Eastenders set.
Politically this has been a (usually very) safe Conservative seat since its creation although Labour came fairly close in 1997 at which point they controlled the local council. The main source of Labour support is in Borehamwood which was constructed after the war as an LCC overspill estate for working class Londoners displaced by the Luftwaffe and slum clearances. Before right-to-buy kicked in in the 1980s, a large majority of housing in Borehamwood was local authority owned and all the wards in the town elected Labour councillors from the 1970s until the beginning of this century. Since then the area has trended heavily to the Conservatives as a result of RTB and the construction of new private estates, though Labour retains a strong core vote still, especially in the Cowley Hill ward. The village of Shenley has had a somewhat similar political trajectory, having been a fairly safe Labour ward in the last century due to the presence of a large number of workers at the local mental hospital and a significant council house presence but now safely Conservative following the construction of new private estates.
The Liberal Democrats are generally rather weak in this constituency but they (and the Liberals before them) enjoyed considerable local election strength in the Northern half of Bushey and though this had largely dissipated in the last decade, they did recover a presence in May 2019 by gaining the redrawn Bushey North ward. Most of the wards in the constituency though are safely Conservative and include some of the safest Conservative wards in the country in Bushey Heath, Aldenham East (Radlett) and Elstree. Potters Bar has usually been very strongly Conservative as well though Labour managed to win most of the wards there in the mid-90s and somewhat surprisingly won the redrawn Furzefield ward in the West of the town in 2019. The reasons for this are unclear – it does include pockets of social housing but no more so than in Oakmere. Possibly there is some spill-over of the kind of elements which have caused nearby Chipping Barnet and Southgate to trend Labour.
The proportions of White, Asian and Black residents in Hertsmere is very close to the national average for England & Wales though the Black population skews much more heavily than average to African rather than Caribbean origin, these being concentrated in Borehamwood, while the Asian population is primarily of Indian Hindu origin and is concentrated in the wealthier areas. The most notable demographic feature of the constituency is the exceptionally large Jewish population - at 14.3% in 2011 the third highest in the country. This is most marked (over 30%) in Radlett, Bushey Heath and Elstree but there has been an increasing presence also in the new estates of Borehamwood and Shenley. The Jewish population in Potters Bar by contrast is relatively negligible.
Hertsmere has had three MPs with the high-profile Cecil Parkinson being replaced in 1992 by James Clappison who quietly represented the seat for nearly a quarter of a century until 2015. His replacement, Oliver Dowden, while not yet enjoying the high profile that Parkinson did has rapidly ascended to cabinet level. Dowden is a local man unlike his predecessors who hailed from Lancashire and Yorkshire. In 2019 he achieved a majority in excess of 20,000 for the first time in the constituency’s history.
The map shows the results of the May 2019 local elections which were contested on new ward boundaries
2019 General Election
2017 General Election
2015 General Election
2016 EU referendum
Hertsmere
Hertsmere came into being in the major review ahead of the 1983 election though it can trace its roots a little bit further back as it is recognisably the successor the South Hertfordshire seat created in 1974. That was an entirely new seat created from a variety of sources. Potters Bar (which had been in MIddlesex before being added to Hertfordshire on the creation of the GLC) came from the abolished Enfield West and brought with it its MP, Cecil Parkinson. The old Elstree Rural District, comprising Borehamwood, Elstree and Shenley, had formed part of Reginald Maudling’s Barnet seat from which it also been separated by the inclusion of Chipping Barnet in Greater London. Aldenham parish (dominated by the town of Radlett) was added from South West Hertfordshire. All these areas were included within the new Hertsmere borough created in the local government review of the early 70s. South Hertfordshire was completed by three parishes from the Southern end of the St Albans Rural District – Colney Heath, London Colney and St Stephen.
In 1983 the St Albans wards were removed with the exception of London Colney and replaced by the remaining part of Hertsmere borough in the form of Bushey from South West Hertfordshire. In 1997 London Colney was also removed leaving the boundaries as identical to those of Hertsmere borough and they remained unchanged in 2010.
As much of the description above indicates, this is very much an ‘Outer Outer London’ seat which houses a large number of commuters to the city. The whole borough was within the Metropolitan Police district until the turn of the 21st Century when it passed to the Hertfordshire constabulary and most of it is within the 020 London telephone code area.
Apart from the common attributes of a proximity to and certain dependence on London, there is little internal cohesion to this seat with limited communication between the main towns. The main lines of communication run from North to South here – into and out of London. The constituency is traversed by the M1 and A1 Motorways and the A41 and A5 and by the Midland and East Coast rail-lines – Potters Bar is on the East Coast line, Elstree-Borehamwood and Radlett on the Midland line and Bushey Station (which lies outside the borough) is on the West Coast line. Bushey is largely a suburb of Watford and is connected to Stanmore to the South. Borehamwood is connected to St Albans and to Barnet and Potters Bar retains residual links with Enfield as well as Hatfield to the North. Although many residents work outside the borough, there is a significant home-grown industry in the form of the film industry which has been based at Elstree for over a century now and remains the site of a BBC studio and the Eastenders set.
Politically this has been a (usually very) safe Conservative seat since its creation although Labour came fairly close in 1997 at which point they controlled the local council. The main source of Labour support is in Borehamwood which was constructed after the war as an LCC overspill estate for working class Londoners displaced by the Luftwaffe and slum clearances. Before right-to-buy kicked in in the 1980s, a large majority of housing in Borehamwood was local authority owned and all the wards in the town elected Labour councillors from the 1970s until the beginning of this century. Since then the area has trended heavily to the Conservatives as a result of RTB and the construction of new private estates, though Labour retains a strong core vote still, especially in the Cowley Hill ward. The village of Shenley has had a somewhat similar political trajectory, having been a fairly safe Labour ward in the last century due to the presence of a large number of workers at the local mental hospital and a significant council house presence but now safely Conservative following the construction of new private estates.
The Liberal Democrats are generally rather weak in this constituency but they (and the Liberals before them) enjoyed considerable local election strength in the Northern half of Bushey and though this had largely dissipated in the last decade, they did recover a presence in May 2019 by gaining the redrawn Bushey North ward. Most of the wards in the constituency though are safely Conservative and include some of the safest Conservative wards in the country in Bushey Heath, Aldenham East (Radlett) and Elstree. Potters Bar has usually been very strongly Conservative as well though Labour managed to win most of the wards there in the mid-90s and somewhat surprisingly won the redrawn Furzefield ward in the West of the town in 2019. The reasons for this are unclear – it does include pockets of social housing but no more so than in Oakmere. Possibly there is some spill-over of the kind of elements which have caused nearby Chipping Barnet and Southgate to trend Labour.
The proportions of White, Asian and Black residents in Hertsmere is very close to the national average for England & Wales though the Black population skews much more heavily than average to African rather than Caribbean origin, these being concentrated in Borehamwood, while the Asian population is primarily of Indian Hindu origin and is concentrated in the wealthier areas. The most notable demographic feature of the constituency is the exceptionally large Jewish population - at 14.3% in 2011 the third highest in the country. This is most marked (over 30%) in Radlett, Bushey Heath and Elstree but there has been an increasing presence also in the new estates of Borehamwood and Shenley. The Jewish population in Potters Bar by contrast is relatively negligible.
Hertsmere has had three MPs with the high-profile Cecil Parkinson being replaced in 1992 by James Clappison who quietly represented the seat for nearly a quarter of a century until 2015. His replacement, Oliver Dowden, while not yet enjoying the high profile that Parkinson did has rapidly ascended to cabinet level. Dowden is a local man unlike his predecessors who hailed from Lancashire and Yorkshire. In 2019 he achieved a majority in excess of 20,000 for the first time in the constituency’s history.
The map shows the results of the May 2019 local elections which were contested on new ward boundaries
| 1. Bushey North | 5. Shenley | 9. Borehamwood Brookmeadow | 13. Potters Bar Furzefield |
| 2. Bushey St James | 6. Aldenham East | 10. Borehamwood Hillside | 14. Potters Bar Parkfield |
| 3. Bushey Park | 7. Aldenham West | 11. Borehamwood Kenilworth | 15. Potters Bar Oakmere |
| 4. Bushey Heath | 8. Elstree | 12. Borehamwood Cowley Hill | 16. Bentley Heath & The Royds |
2019 General Election
| Con | 32,651 | 62.5% |
| Lab | 11,338 | 21.7% |
| LD | 6,561 | 12.6% |
| Grn | 1,653 | 3.2% |
| Majority | 21,313 | 40.8% |
2017 General Election
| Con | 31,928 | 61.1% |
| Lab | 14,977 | 28.7% |
| LD | 2,794 | 5.3% |
| UKIP | 1,564 | 3.0% |
| Grn | 990 | 1.9% |
| Majority | 16,951 | 32.4% |
2015 General Election
| Con | 29,696 | 59.3% |
| Lab | 11,235 | 22.4% |
| UKIP | 6,383 | 12.7% |
| LD | 2,777 | 5.5% |
| Majority | 18,461 | 36.9% |
2016 EU referendum
| Leave | 28,532 | 50.8% |
| Remain | 27,593 | 49.2% |
% | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | ||||
| Owner Occupied | 67.6 | 273 | White | 85.0 | 425 | Christian | 51.7 | 482 | Graduates | 30.8 | 150 |
| Social Rented | 17.4 | 229 | Asian | 7.4 | 163 | Muslim | 2.4 | 213 | No Qualifications | 19.4 | 412 |
| Private Rented | 12.5 | 390 | Black | 3.9 | 119 | Hindu | 3.2 | 54 | |||
| Mixed | 2.6 | 145 | Sikh | 0.2 | 268 | Students | 8.7 | 163 | |||
| Other | 1.0 | 141 | Jewish | 14.3 | 3 | ||||||
| None | 19.2 | 492 | Prof/Man | 40.7 | |||||||
| Routine/ | 19.6 | ||||||||||
| Semi Routine |
