Beckenham

[jacoblamsden]

Beckenham has had its own constituency since 1950, having previously been a part of the Bromley division. Traditionally, the Beckenham seat was very much a constituency of two halves, with the prosperous suburban town of Beckenham and the exclusive residential district of Shortlands joined by the working-class railway suburbs of Penge and Anerley. But while such a fusion looked like a classic marginal on paper, Beckenham never got close to leaving Conservative hands, at least until 1997. This was because Beckenham is very much an outer London constituency, with even the Penge half of the seat with its SE20 postcode far enough out to escape the urban decline that ravaged many of London’s inner suburbs between the 1960s and 90s. Instead, Penge and Anerley remained classic ‘white van man suburbs’ and were therefore fertile breeding grounds for working-class Conservatism, particularly in the Thatcher era. The leafy and suburban element of the constituency was boosted by the addition of West Wickham in 1997, a much-needed boundary change since Piers Merchant hung on with a reduced majority of 4,953, much of which would have come from West Wickham itself. Despite surviving the Tory bloodbath of 1997, the Conservative monopoly on Beckenham appeared in grave danger only a few months later after a by-election was called in the least auspicious circumstances. Merchant resigned after an affair with his secretary went public, at a time when Labour under ‘Teflon Tony’ were touching 60% in the opinion polls. But despite a seemingly toxic combination of yet more Tory sleaze and a Labour government attracting almost North Korean levels of support, Jacqui Lait, fresh from losing Hastings and Rye in the general election, held on by 1,227 votes. Without West Wickham, Beckenham would have surely gone Labour this time. Lait built up her majority to 8,401 by 2005 – a very respectable result considering the northern part of the constituency was beginning to undergo significant demographic change, Penge becoming particularly popular with Afro-Caribbean families moving from inner south London.

But since 2010, Beckenham has morphed from a seat where the Conservatives probably overperformed into one in which on balance, they have underperformed. The impact of the boundary changes in 2010 cannot be understated since the seat lost all of Labour’s strongest areas in Penge and gained two very safe Conservative wards, Bromley Common and Keston and Hayes and Coney Hall. Keston and Hayes in particular have the feel of rural Kentish villages, a far cry from the three wards lost to the new Lewisham West and Penge. Yet, the predictions that the new Beckenham constituency would be the safest Conservative seat in the country in 2010 were unfounded and from 2015, it was not even the safest seat in the London Borough of Bromley, an accolade going to the once Liberal-held Orpington. In 2019, with the other Bromley seats all swinging significantly to the Conservatives, Beckenham swung by 0.5% to Labour. Not that this placed the incumbent in any danger of course, with Colonel Bob Stewart of Bosnia fame still picking up 54% of the vote and a majority of over 14,000. As a result, Beckenham is still archetypal true-blue suburbia, but not quite as much as its once was. The constituency is experiencing many of the trends which have contributed to Labour’s advance across much of London – an increasing ethnic minority population, a reduction in owner occupation and an influx of younger voters – but to nowhere enough of an extent to make a difference to the seat’s political affiliation. With a general consensus that the Conservatives hit rock-bottom in Greater London in 2017, Beckenham’s unbroken Conservative record shows no sign of abating – unless, of course, the seat reverts to its pre-2010 boundaries. Unlike in the 2000s, a Beckenham and Penge seat minus Hayes and Keston would be on a knife-edge between Conservative and Labour, with the Lib Dems a strong third.

2019 General Election

Con 27,282 54.0%
Lab 13,024 25.8%
LD 8,194 16.2%
Grn 2,055 4.1%

Maj 14,258 28.2%

2017 General Election

Con 30,632 59.3%
Lab 15,545 30.1%
LD 4,073 7.9%
Grn 1,380 2.7%

Maj 15,087 29.2%

2015 General Election

Con 27,955 57.3%
Lab 9,484 19.4%
UKIP 6,108 12.5%
LD 3,378 13.7%
Grn 1,878 3.8%

Maj 18,741 37.8%

2016 EU referendum

Remain 51.6%
Leave 48.4%

[where2travel]

A good write-up of what is now my home constituency.

Without specifically intending to, for my daily exercise today I ended up doing a loop through every ward in this constituency (Copers Cope, Shortlands, Hayes, Bromley Common & Keston, Hayes (again), West Wickham, Kelsey & Eden Park and back to Copers Cope). I set out to go to Keston Ponds and back, and it's not hard to see that the Tories will probably continue to do very well in the outer wards here for some time. The same applies to Shortlands (which captures a big chunk of the leafy avenues with large detached houses in Beckenham and towards Bromley/West Wickham). Copers Cope, and to a lesser extent Kelsey & Eden Park, will not surprisingly see electoral shifts sooner. They may slowly go the same way as Clock House and become much more competitive for the the Lib Dems and Labour.

Given Clock House is now in neighbouring LW&P, and the Cator part of Beckenham is also excluded, quite a chunk of Beckenham isn't actually in the seat (it's missing the Leisure Centre, the Library, the Fire Station and 3 of the railway stations in Beckenham). I'm surprised the constituency name has remained, although I can't think of anything obvious to change it to. I wouldn't want the borough name in it (Bromley). Maybe back to the old Ravensbourne name which was used given the river of the name does go through a fair chunk of the constituency (although I think it's goes out for a bit into Bromley & Chislehurst before coming back to form the border of the two constituencies and then back in fully in Keston.

[froome]

I spent my first 18 years living in Beckenham during the 1950s and 60s, in what would then have been in the constituency, though now would be in LW&P (we moved when I was about 10 from Clockhouse ward to the Cator ward). Beckenham always felt like a very safe Conservative seat even then, although most of the people I knew who lived there were staunchly Labour voting, and I was pleased that the wards I was living in voted Labour during the times I would have been resident.

where2travel's walk sounds very much like the walk I often did when I was in my early teens, as my two best friends lived in West Wickham and Bromley Common, and I often walked from the Cator area over to them and back, which was several miles.

I suspect the demographics of Copers Cope ward were changing quite quickly even during my childhood, as many of the large houses there were then being divided into flats or had been demolished (probably in the war) and replaced by much smaller housing. Penge was at that time definitely white working class, with very little BAME population visible.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 17.9% 240/650
Owner-occupied 76.9% 41/650
Private rented 13.5% 363/650
Social rented 8.1% 632/650
White 86.7% 484/650
Black 3.8% 123/650
Asian 5.0% 226/650
Managerial & professional 44.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 13.3%
Degree level 35.5% 86/650
No qualifications 15.6% 596/650
Students 6.9% 307/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 74.3% 68/573
Private rented 17.6% 318/573
Social rented 8.1% 557/573
White 79.4%
Black 5.4%
Asian 7.5%
Managerial & professional 47.3% 20/573
Routine & Semi-routine 12.7% 560/573
Degree level 43.8% 71/573
No qualifications 12.3% 536/573




General Election 2019: Beckenham

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Bob Stewart 27,282 54.0 -5.4
Labour Marina Ahmad 13,024 25.8 -4.3
Liberal Democrats Chloe-Jane Ross 8,194 16.2 +8.3
Green Ruth Fabricant 2,055 4.1 +1.4

C Majority 14,258 28.2 -1.0

Turnout 50,555 73.6 -2.4

Registered electors 68,671

Conservative hold

Swing 0.5 C to Lab

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 29, 2020 22:57:57 GMT jacoblamsden said:

With a general consensus that the Conservatives hit rock-bottom in Greater London in 2017, Beckenham’s unbroken Conservative record shows no sign of abating – unless, of course, the seat reverts to its pre-2010 boundaries. Unlike in the 2000s, a Beckenham and Penge seat minus Hayes and Keston would be on a knife-edge between Conservative and Labour, with the Lib Dems a strong third.

This is of course what is proposed here now, in both initial and revised proposals (and it seems unlikely that this will be reversed given the huge knock on effects such a change would have). The three 'Penge' wards together have nearly 33,000 voters and are quite overwhelmingly Labour nowadays. To accomodate this area Bromley Common & Keston and Hayes & Coney Hall are removed. This does almost restore the boundaries here between 1997 and 2010 (and pre-1974). This seat would have been more marginal in the Conservative landslide election of 2019 than it was in the Labour landslide of election in 1997 (the 1974-97 version of this seat would already be Labour) which shows the strengthening of the Labour vote in 'Penge' together with the weakening of the Conservatives in the hitherto very strong central Beckenham wards. The writing must be on the wall here even if the Conservatives stage an unlikley recovery in the national polls.
The name is changed to reflect the new additions to Beckenham & Penge


Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries - Beckenham & Penge

Con	22494	40.2%
Lab	22112	39.5%
LD	8390	15.0%
Grn	2367	4.2%
BxP	504	0.9%
Oth	96	0.2%
Majority	382	0.7%

[Pete Whitehead]

I can't imagine there are any other constituencies where the partisan impact of the proposed boundary changes are stronger than they are here.

[where2travel]

I'm not surprised it's that close (and wouldn't have been surprised if it was in the Labour column on the 2019 notional results).

I agree the Conservatives are done for here, and they'll look at the 2022 Local Election results which continued a worsening trend for them here - losing 2 out of their 3 seats in Beckenham Town & Copers Cope and Labour coming very close to them in Kelsey & Eden Park. What surprised me even more was that Labour got over 30% in Shortlands & Park Langley and were not far off that in West Wickham (wards in my mind that would still be strongly Conservative).

When Beckenham was previously based on these boundaries (1997-2010), the Tories routinely got over 60% (and sometimes 70%) in Copers Cope, Shortlands and West Wickham. Now they're a long way off those days and Labour secure even bigger majorities in their strongest wards.

As an aside, I'm not keen on the name change to Beckenham & Penge.

[batman]

seems fair enough, Penge is not the worst generic term for the 3 Labour-held wards which are in Bromley borough but in the Lewisham W & Penge constituency, and it does indicate what boundary changes are taking place quite well

[YL]

Dec 1, 2022 6:42:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I can't imagine there are any other constituencies where the partisan impact of the proposed boundary changes are stronger than they are here.

Dewsbury must be close.

[where2travel]

Dec 1, 2022 10:29:16 GMT batman said:

seems fair enough, Penge is not the worst generic term for the 3 Labour-held wards which are in Bromley borough but in the Lewisham W & Penge constituency, and it does indicate what boundary changes are taking place quite well

True, although Clock House is largely Beckenham anyway (as is a chunk of Penge & Cator).

On the whole I just prefer shorter names so would be happy to see Beckenham, Bromley, and Orpington as the 3 seats contained within the borough (so dropping the Biggin Hill bit too). Previously Beckenham was deemed fine for the same 1997-2010 version of this seat (and the similar pre-1997 seat), and also the post-2010 version which didn't even contain all of Beckenham in it. Maybe Bromley is discounted to avoid confusion with the wider Borough name?

I do get it more for cross-borough seats, so can see where Lewisham West & Penge and the new Eltham & Chislehurst names came from. Often the trouble with A&B names is that there is then a C (West Wickham in this case) that wonders why they're not included.

[batman]

a friend of mine thinks that Richmond Park should now be called Richmond, Kingston & Barnes (because Kingston town centre will now be included). There are of course precedents for 3-name constituencies, or even 4 (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey) but two is normally enough for me, and probably most people.

[finsobruce]

Dec 1, 2022 20:28:22 GMT batman said:

a friend of mine thinks that Richmond Park should now be called Richmond, Kingston & Barnes (because Kingston town centre will now be included). There are of course precedents for 3-name constituencies, or even 4 (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey) but two is normally enough for me, and probably most people.

Well Barnes did used to be a separate borough...

[Pete Whitehead]

It's funny that they managed to have a seat called just 'Richmond' when Barnes was a separate borough but then saw fit to add it to the name nearly 20 years after it was abolised.
Of course they did this to reflect the addition to the constituency of er.. East Twickenham

[batman]

Dec 1, 2022 20:32:20 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It's funny that they managed to have a seat called just 'Richmond' when Barnes was a separate borough but then saw fit to add it to the name nearly 20 years after it was abolised.
Of course they did this to reflect the addition to the constituency of er.. East Twickenham

that's exactly what we were talking about earlier. He himself is having to move CLPs because of the boundary changes ending a 28- or 29-year association with us. Barnes was indeed a separate borough, that's why my choir is called the Barnes Choir, after the borough it was in when it was formed in 1952. We perform mainly and rehearse almost exclusively in East Sheen but we do one concert a year actually in Barnes

[batman]

the former boroughs are still in several cases in constituency names. Hardly anyone would know where Finsbury actually is other than it's on old street name signs which were put up before 1964, and yet there it still is in a constituency name. Same with Holborn & St Pancras, if the constituency were named after its principal areas it would probably be called Camden & Kentish Towns, or something similar

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 1, 2022 21:29:35 GMT batman said:

the former boroughs are still in several cases in constituency names. Hardly anyone would know where Finsbury actually is other than it's on old street name signs which were put up before 1964, and yet there it still is in a constituency name. Same with Holborn & St Pancras, if the constituency were named after its principal areas it would probably be called Camden & Kentish Towns, or something similar

The old borough of Malden & Coombe has never been mentioned in any constituency before but will now contribute to two constituency names (which will presumably please your Coombe based friend).
Friern Barnet also gets a mention for the first time (officially at least)

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 1, 2022 10:54:55 GMT YL said:

Dec 1, 2022 6:42:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I can't imagine there are any other constituencies where the partisan impact of the proposed boundary changes are stronger than they are here.

Dewsbury must be close.

I think we have a winner vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15876/reading-west?page=1&scrollTo=1318172