Post by Robert Waller on Apr 3, 2020 12:52:36 GMT
A ‘bellwether’ is a sheep that leads the herd; so by extension a bellwether seat is one which is reliably won by whichever party wins the general election as a whole. It is true that High Peak changed hands in 1997, 2010 and most recently in December 2019. However it is not a true bellwether, as the constituency has gradually shifted over recent decades from being a somewhat Tory-inclined marginal to one more inclined to Labour in an even year - for example, Labour rather surprisingly had gained the seat in 2017. The reason for this is instructive, and based on the shift away from voting predominantly on class lines to issue-based preference, in particular the issue of Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Nowadays the Labour vote in a seat is positively correlated with a ‘Remain’ choice in the 2016 referendum, and with associated demographic variables such as high education levels. A majority in High Peak did vote to leave, but only a narrow majority, estimated at 50.5%. Thus the seat was slightly more pro-European than average in Britain, and rather more than average in England – and this is reflected in High Peak’s 2019 result being stronger for Labour than average in England, even though the left wing MP Ruth George lost by 590 votes. The swing that elected Robert Largan was only 2.7% Labour to Tory, around half the national average. High Peak is currently number 5 on the Labour target list, behind only the two seats in Bury, Bolton NE and Kensington. This is unlikely to be significantly altered in the planned boundary review, especially as 650 seats are to be retained, as with an electorate in 2019 of 74,343, it will be close to the quota for England.
Another reason why there is little scope for boundary changes is that the constituency is in effect the wedge that is north-west Derbyshire. It contains most of the northern half of the Peak District, designated in 1951 as Britain’s first National Park – most of the southern half, also known as the ‘White Peak’ because of its limestone base compared with the north’s ‘Dark Peak’ millstone grit, is in the seat of Derbyshire Dales, though the National Park spills over into Staffordshire, Cheshire and Yorkshire as well. The reason why High Peak, which contains some very attractive scenery such as the Hope Valley and Edale, southern terminus of the Pennine Way, is not safely Tory is that over 80% of its population live in five small towns. The historically mill-based communities of Glossop and New Mills look as if they belong in Lancashire or Yorkshire, and share the owner-occupied marginality of the more northern Pennines. Chapel-en-le-Frith is dominated by Ferodo, long regarded as the single largest employer in the seat (in the unglamorous business of stopping heavy vehicles by manufacturing brake linings). Whaley Bridge, has been increasingly popular with Manchester communities. The town of Buxton is starkly divided. In the western half of the town are to be found the mansions to which the Victorians retired to take the waters, and the facilities that were developed – the Frank Matcham designed Opera House, a Crescent that would not look out of place in Bath (especially if it long-delayed restoration were completed), the giant dome of the Devonshire Royal Hospital, now part of the University of Derby, which has had a campus in the town since 1998.
However, the centre of Britain’s limestone quarrying industry lies in the white-scarred landscape around Buxton, and Buxton’s east end, Fairfield, harbours a heavy and reliable Labour vote, particularly in Stone Bench ward, and Buxton’s Central ward has also trended strongly towards Labour. The other Labour strongholds in the High Peak include Gamesley, a windy Manchester overspill estate on a hill outside Glossop, and Hadfield, a large village north of Glossop where the mulitiple Booker winner Hilary Mantel grew up. The Conservatives’ best chances lie in the villages of the seat, such as the touristy Castleton in the Hope Valley (although in local council elections the Greens have had significant success here, returning both Hope Valley councillors in May 2019) and in the 'Limestone Peak' around Peak Dale and Peak Forest. In May 2019 the Conservatives were still ahead in the west Buxton wards of Burbage and Temple, in Chapel en le Frith, and in the village of Hayfield, birthplace of the actor Arthur Lowe, under the slope of Kinder Scout. In Whaley Bridge, severely affected by flooding when large numbers were evacuated in August 2019 over fears that Toddbrook Reservoir’s dam might collapse, the former Labour MP Ruth George was very convincingly returned to Derbyshire County Council in a byelection in February 2020.
Ms George will not be the candidate in the next general election - Jon Pearce was selected in December 2022 - but Labour is in a relatively strong position to return in a seat which has shown a favourable long-term movement, should the party’s national share of the vote be competitive. This is not because the seat has in any sense moved down the social and economic scale, as would once have been relevant, but almost the reverse: rising levels of education (including the university) and affluence (property values have risen above average over the last thirty years), a greater role as a commuter base, and a distinct sense of gentrification are all, arguably, now better portents for Labour than the Conservatives.
2019 General Election
Robert Largan C 24844 45.9 +0.5
Ruth George Lab 24254 44.8 -4.9
LD 2750 5.1 +0.1
Brexit 1177 2.2
Green 1148 2.1
C maj 590 1.1
Electorate 74,343
Turnout 72.9
Swing 2.7 Lab to C
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.2% 283/650
Owner-occupied 72.0% 160/650
Private rented 13.4% 372/650
Social rented 12.7% 455/650
White 97.9% 141/650
Black 0.2% 530/650
Asian 0.8% 571/650
Managerial & professional 33.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.7%
Degree level 29.4% 203/650
No qualifications 20.9% 423/650
Students 6.8% 321/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.6% 128/573
Private rented 16.2% 376/573
Social rented 12.2% 413/573
White 97.5%
Black 0.3%
Asian 0.8%
Managerial & professional 35.7% 200/573
Routine & Semi-routine 25.4% 267/573
Degree level 35.6% 182/573
No qualifications 15.0% 426/573
Nowadays the Labour vote in a seat is positively correlated with a ‘Remain’ choice in the 2016 referendum, and with associated demographic variables such as high education levels. A majority in High Peak did vote to leave, but only a narrow majority, estimated at 50.5%. Thus the seat was slightly more pro-European than average in Britain, and rather more than average in England – and this is reflected in High Peak’s 2019 result being stronger for Labour than average in England, even though the left wing MP Ruth George lost by 590 votes. The swing that elected Robert Largan was only 2.7% Labour to Tory, around half the national average. High Peak is currently number 5 on the Labour target list, behind only the two seats in Bury, Bolton NE and Kensington. This is unlikely to be significantly altered in the planned boundary review, especially as 650 seats are to be retained, as with an electorate in 2019 of 74,343, it will be close to the quota for England.
Another reason why there is little scope for boundary changes is that the constituency is in effect the wedge that is north-west Derbyshire. It contains most of the northern half of the Peak District, designated in 1951 as Britain’s first National Park – most of the southern half, also known as the ‘White Peak’ because of its limestone base compared with the north’s ‘Dark Peak’ millstone grit, is in the seat of Derbyshire Dales, though the National Park spills over into Staffordshire, Cheshire and Yorkshire as well. The reason why High Peak, which contains some very attractive scenery such as the Hope Valley and Edale, southern terminus of the Pennine Way, is not safely Tory is that over 80% of its population live in five small towns. The historically mill-based communities of Glossop and New Mills look as if they belong in Lancashire or Yorkshire, and share the owner-occupied marginality of the more northern Pennines. Chapel-en-le-Frith is dominated by Ferodo, long regarded as the single largest employer in the seat (in the unglamorous business of stopping heavy vehicles by manufacturing brake linings). Whaley Bridge, has been increasingly popular with Manchester communities. The town of Buxton is starkly divided. In the western half of the town are to be found the mansions to which the Victorians retired to take the waters, and the facilities that were developed – the Frank Matcham designed Opera House, a Crescent that would not look out of place in Bath (especially if it long-delayed restoration were completed), the giant dome of the Devonshire Royal Hospital, now part of the University of Derby, which has had a campus in the town since 1998.
However, the centre of Britain’s limestone quarrying industry lies in the white-scarred landscape around Buxton, and Buxton’s east end, Fairfield, harbours a heavy and reliable Labour vote, particularly in Stone Bench ward, and Buxton’s Central ward has also trended strongly towards Labour. The other Labour strongholds in the High Peak include Gamesley, a windy Manchester overspill estate on a hill outside Glossop, and Hadfield, a large village north of Glossop where the mulitiple Booker winner Hilary Mantel grew up. The Conservatives’ best chances lie in the villages of the seat, such as the touristy Castleton in the Hope Valley (although in local council elections the Greens have had significant success here, returning both Hope Valley councillors in May 2019) and in the 'Limestone Peak' around Peak Dale and Peak Forest. In May 2019 the Conservatives were still ahead in the west Buxton wards of Burbage and Temple, in Chapel en le Frith, and in the village of Hayfield, birthplace of the actor Arthur Lowe, under the slope of Kinder Scout. In Whaley Bridge, severely affected by flooding when large numbers were evacuated in August 2019 over fears that Toddbrook Reservoir’s dam might collapse, the former Labour MP Ruth George was very convincingly returned to Derbyshire County Council in a byelection in February 2020.
Ms George will not be the candidate in the next general election - Jon Pearce was selected in December 2022 - but Labour is in a relatively strong position to return in a seat which has shown a favourable long-term movement, should the party’s national share of the vote be competitive. This is not because the seat has in any sense moved down the social and economic scale, as would once have been relevant, but almost the reverse: rising levels of education (including the university) and affluence (property values have risen above average over the last thirty years), a greater role as a commuter base, and a distinct sense of gentrification are all, arguably, now better portents for Labour than the Conservatives.
2019 General Election
Robert Largan C 24844 45.9 +0.5
Ruth George Lab 24254 44.8 -4.9
LD 2750 5.1 +0.1
Brexit 1177 2.2
Green 1148 2.1
C maj 590 1.1
Electorate 74,343
Turnout 72.9
Swing 2.7 Lab to C
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.2% 283/650
Owner-occupied 72.0% 160/650
Private rented 13.4% 372/650
Social rented 12.7% 455/650
White 97.9% 141/650
Black 0.2% 530/650
Asian 0.8% 571/650
Managerial & professional 33.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.7%
Degree level 29.4% 203/650
No qualifications 20.9% 423/650
Students 6.8% 321/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.6% 128/573
Private rented 16.2% 376/573
Social rented 12.2% 413/573
White 97.5%
Black 0.3%
Asian 0.8%
Managerial & professional 35.7% 200/573
Routine & Semi-routine 25.4% 267/573
Degree level 35.6% 182/573
No qualifications 15.0% 426/573
