South Korean General Election 2020
Mar 24, 2020 11:21:36 GMT
curiousliberal, ibfc, and 1 more like this
Post by nelson on Mar 24, 2020 11:21:36 GMT
South Korea is holding parliamentary elections on 15 April despite the Corona crisis (which they probably have more under control than any of the other highly affected countries). While the liberal President Moon har been lauded internationally for his response to the crisis the South Korean public has been more critical and while his liberal Together Democratic Party (or United Democratic Party using a less direct translation) will almost certainly win the opposition will get closer than anticipated pre-crisis (the South Korean Conservatives have been in crisis since the removal of President Park in 2017).
The impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye (daughter of the military dictator Park Chung-hee) caused a split in the Conservative party Saenuri, with anti-Park forces establishing Bareun as a new centre-right party. There has since been a number of party splits and mergers on the centre-right and in the run-up to the election the parties have realigned with one large Conservative party called the United Future Party, two smaller centrist ones, one a merger of anti-Park Saenuri politicians and moderate liberals from the physician and entrepreneur Ahn Cheol-soo's People's Party called the Party for People's Livelihoods and the other a new People Party under Ahn-Cheol-soo (the Korean name is identical to the People's Party, but they prefer People Party in English), founded after Ahn discovered he couldn't control the merged party. The People Party seems to get most of the centrist/moderate vote whereas the Party for People's Livelihoods looks like a dud.
Two far right parties are competing, both styling themselves as "pro-Park". The Pro-Park New Party is a slightly more moderate right wing populist breakaway from the hard right Our Republican Party, which has merged with the even nuttier Christian Right and Korean ethnic supremacism (Ilminism, which SK's first president Syngman Rhee advocated) party to form the Liberty Republican Party. It looks like the more moderate party will win the battle of the far right.
The Justice Party is Social Democratic and the biggest left wing party, but apart from Minjung five micro parties are running (the Greens, Labour, Women's Party, Basic Income Party and a youth party called Our Future with a middle aged comedian & talkshow host as "advisor"), all presumably siphoning votes away from Justice. The Basic Income Party is allied with the Democrats and will run on their list. The Greens and Labor are well-established parties, the others are new.
The Minjung Party (the name is yet another version of People's Party) is a merger of two small de facto pro-North Korean (so-called "left nationalist") parties both descended from a party that was banned in 2014 for being pro-North Korean. It might still be prevented from running due to violating the National Security Act (a draconic 1948 law that is still in force as a leftover from the dictatorship but not applied consistently).
The Democrats and UFP have both established new satellite parties (Together Citizens' Party and Future Korea Party) to allow the Big 2 to get a share of the 30 of 47 list seats that now function as top-up seats for parties running for constituency seats - as part of the partial reform of the electoral system (see below). They are included in the two mother parties in the polls.
Electoral system
A partial election reform bill has kept 253 constituency seats elected by FPTP and 47 list seats allocated by proportional representation, but 30 of PR seats will be switched from a parallel system to a compensatory one (acting as top-up seats for the parties that compete for constituency seats). 17 of the 47 PR seats will still be distributed under the old parallel voting system and allocated without reference to the constituency seats. South Korea often has last minute changes to the electoral system, so this could change. There will presumably still be a 3% threshold for getting PR seats.
Poll
A recent (published 19/3) poll from Realmeter, which is usually the best Korean pollster, has the Big 2 dominating and the centrist vote down from the last election. Changes is from their previous poll.
Democrats (Minjudang) 40.9% (0.6↓)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 35.1% (3.0↑)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.9% (nc)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 3.2% (1.1↓)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 2.5% (new)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 1.6% (0.5↓)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.5% (0.3↑)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.0% (1.4↓)
Others 1.7 (0.1↑)
Undecided 8.6% (2.3↓)
The impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye (daughter of the military dictator Park Chung-hee) caused a split in the Conservative party Saenuri, with anti-Park forces establishing Bareun as a new centre-right party. There has since been a number of party splits and mergers on the centre-right and in the run-up to the election the parties have realigned with one large Conservative party called the United Future Party, two smaller centrist ones, one a merger of anti-Park Saenuri politicians and moderate liberals from the physician and entrepreneur Ahn Cheol-soo's People's Party called the Party for People's Livelihoods and the other a new People Party under Ahn-Cheol-soo (the Korean name is identical to the People's Party, but they prefer People Party in English), founded after Ahn discovered he couldn't control the merged party. The People Party seems to get most of the centrist/moderate vote whereas the Party for People's Livelihoods looks like a dud.
Two far right parties are competing, both styling themselves as "pro-Park". The Pro-Park New Party is a slightly more moderate right wing populist breakaway from the hard right Our Republican Party, which has merged with the even nuttier Christian Right and Korean ethnic supremacism (Ilminism, which SK's first president Syngman Rhee advocated) party to form the Liberty Republican Party. It looks like the more moderate party will win the battle of the far right.
The Justice Party is Social Democratic and the biggest left wing party, but apart from Minjung five micro parties are running (the Greens, Labour, Women's Party, Basic Income Party and a youth party called Our Future with a middle aged comedian & talkshow host as "advisor"), all presumably siphoning votes away from Justice. The Basic Income Party is allied with the Democrats and will run on their list. The Greens and Labor are well-established parties, the others are new.
The Minjung Party (the name is yet another version of People's Party) is a merger of two small de facto pro-North Korean (so-called "left nationalist") parties both descended from a party that was banned in 2014 for being pro-North Korean. It might still be prevented from running due to violating the National Security Act (a draconic 1948 law that is still in force as a leftover from the dictatorship but not applied consistently).
The Democrats and UFP have both established new satellite parties (Together Citizens' Party and Future Korea Party) to allow the Big 2 to get a share of the 30 of 47 list seats that now function as top-up seats for parties running for constituency seats - as part of the partial reform of the electoral system (see below). They are included in the two mother parties in the polls.
Electoral system
A partial election reform bill has kept 253 constituency seats elected by FPTP and 47 list seats allocated by proportional representation, but 30 of PR seats will be switched from a parallel system to a compensatory one (acting as top-up seats for the parties that compete for constituency seats). 17 of the 47 PR seats will still be distributed under the old parallel voting system and allocated without reference to the constituency seats. South Korea often has last minute changes to the electoral system, so this could change. There will presumably still be a 3% threshold for getting PR seats.
Poll
A recent (published 19/3) poll from Realmeter, which is usually the best Korean pollster, has the Big 2 dominating and the centrist vote down from the last election. Changes is from their previous poll.
Democrats (Minjudang) 40.9% (0.6↓)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 35.1% (3.0↑)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.9% (nc)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 3.2% (1.1↓)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 2.5% (new)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 1.6% (0.5↓)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.5% (0.3↑)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.0% (1.4↓)
Others 1.7 (0.1↑)
Undecided 8.6% (2.3↓)
