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Post by iainbhx on Sept 7, 2013 21:16:10 GMT
Assange was knocked out of the Victoria count before Rise Up Australia, the Australian Democrats, Family First, the Sex Party, Palmer United and the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party. Popular guy. Now be fair, Assange did get actually get a smaller voteshare than three of those and the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party has actually won a seat (at the moment). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 21:29:00 GMT
Assange was knocked out of the Victoria count before Rise Up Australia, the Australian Democrats, Family First, the Sex Party, Palmer United and the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party. Popular guy. Now be fair, Assange did get actually get a smaller voteshare than three of those and the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party has actually won a seat (at the moment). Yep - was looking at the eliminations. All those parties hung on for longer than Wikileaks. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 7, 2013 21:32:39 GMT
Also Tas has a higher proportion of anti-Green Labor voters than other states, so the state coalition has damaged the Labor brand somewhat. Had the state coalition, as opposed to a confidence & supply agreement, been formed by the last federal election? ISTR in the state election Labor explicitly ruled out trying to cling onto power or displace a larger Liberal Party through a coalition with the Greens. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 21:45:20 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 22:41:18 GMT
The target list is now almost in agreement with ABC News, with 14/15 seats still to be decided: docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dERmb2NsbmpUNmlyOHplOTNOTE9iZVE#gid=0Seats that were being defended by Labor: Petrie Reid Lilley Capricornia Lingiari Eden-Monaro Parramatta Dobell Barton McEwen Lyons Seats that were being defended by the Coalition: Solomon Fairfax Indi The only discrepancy is that ABC News hasn't called O'Connor yet, which is close between the two Coalition parties, but it's blue on my list. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 7, 2013 22:47:51 GMT
The WA Nats may have had their first setback of their new independent era. Current figures show them narrowly losing O'Connor to the Libs and failing to take Durack off the Libs. In the Senate they polled 4% but failed to attract ticket transfers to get up to a quota.
Meanwhile the Nats in the east with stronger Coalition relations have made a few gains but once again off the back of a defeated Labor government and the taking back of indy seats they really shouldn't have lost in the first place. And once more the seat total is up a lower high than the previous time.
I'm not sure what all this will do for the ongoing debate about their future.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 7, 2013 22:51:19 GMT
The only discrepancy is that ABC News hasn't called O'Connor yet, which is close between the two Coalition parties, but it's blue on my list. The ABC system doesn't handle Liberal-National battles very well - whoever wins it's a Coalition seat (the Nats aren't keen on splitting the WA & SA parties' results out) and often there's limited data to calculate swings because of the no challenges to incumbents position normally followed. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 22:53:44 GMT
I don't think we can say yet whether or not this was a "landslide". If the final result is Abbott winning 95 seats and 54.6% of the 2PPC it would probably be an accurate description in Australian terms. Still quite a few votes to be counted.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 7, 2013 23:33:49 GMT
If you have to ask the question, then the answer is no.
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Post by erlend on Sept 7, 2013 23:48:22 GMT
I think landslide is about 60%. So probably just missed. In the UK 80% is 390. People regard 1983 as one. Thatcher got 397 I think (off hand I can remember if Parliament was 650 then or 635).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2013 23:53:51 GMT
In the UK I think any majority which is over 100, or close enough to it, counts. So in post-war elections, 1945, 1959, 1966, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 8, 2013 1:06:04 GMT
Isn't STV wonderful? /sarcasm To be fair, The Australian Senate is not elected by proper normal STV, but by a deliberately-twisted and bowdlerised version of STV which is more akin to a rigged list system. q.v. "How to Ruin STV" by David Hill www.votingmatters.org.uk/ISSUE12/P7.HTM |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 8, 2013 1:08:57 GMT
In the UK I think any majority which is over 100, or close enough to it, counts. So in post-war elections, 1945, 1959, 1966, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001. I agree with that definition. The local application of that rule-of-thumb is that Croydon Central has only ever been won by Labour when Labour has won a landslide nationally. This sub-rule-of-thumb was confirmed in 2005 when Labour had a majority of only 66 seats nationally, and lost Croydon Central by 75 votes. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 1:41:01 GMT
Wow, feckin nutjobs can still win elections.
Scenario 1.
Indonesian entrepreneur notices this immigrant crackpot is going to buy up old fishing boats so as to stop people smuggling.
Indonesian entrepreneur buys up old fishing boats to sell to Australian government.
With profits Indonesian entrepreneur buys new boats that can outrun the Australian Navy
And makes even more money smuggling people into Australia.
I cannot understand the fecking problem with immigration, migration and emigration.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 8, 2013 6:43:59 GMT
I cannot understand the fecking problem with immigration, migration and emigration. Thats becuase nobody wants to migrate to Fife |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 8, 2013 7:41:25 GMT
Bonza Result Bruce!!! Ehhh!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 9:57:36 GMT
so ditching Gillard made sense eh ? I wonder if she had still in charge the result would have been any better after she was able to campaign ?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 10:09:39 GMT
I cannot understand the fecking problem with immigration, migration and emigration. Thats becuase nobody wants to migrate to Fife Plus most Fifers live in Australia My nephew was over here last month recruiting policemen fot the West Australian Police, they are enlarging their anti immigrant force. I know it does sound crazy but a far as immigration is concerned I love it. 4 chinese meals delivered for a tenner, a pound of donnar meat for £3, the best of the Polish and Spannish dental schools, Italian icecream, a brilliant turkish fish and Chip shop, in my extended family I have people who could play for any team in the 6 nations, Autralia and the Windies. Ok I havent met all of them except on Facebook, but they are there. Oh and my step daughter is a team or line manager type person in the Immigration srevices. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 8, 2013 11:57:34 GMT
Isn't STV wonderful? /sarcasm To be fair, The Australian Senate is not elected by proper normal STV, but by a deliberately-twisted and bowdlerised version of STV which is more akin to a rigged list system. q.v. "How to Ruin STV" by David Hill www.votingmatters.org.uk/ISSUE12/P7.HTMHardly a rigged list system - votes transfer and overall maintain their value even when split up. There's nothing wrong if voters decide they don't want to research umpteen obscure candidates and parties and instead they opt to trust the judgement of their preferred party. STV campaigners need to grapple with the very real issue that a lot of voters are not desperately hunting for choice between the candidates and even parties often nominate only what they need to. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 8, 2013 12:10:17 GMT
I'm certainly no advocate of introducing STV but I must agree with those that point out the Australian system is a bit of a farce. The Irish model (Republic or Northern) is a much better example of how STV can work.
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