Clarko
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 149 
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Post by Clarko on Sept 8, 2013 12:31:54 GMT
I'm certainly no advocate of introducing STV but I must agree with those that point out the Australian system is a bit of a farce. The Irish model (Republic or Northern) is a much better example of how STV can work. I'd have to agree with that. If anything the Senate results show the folly of the "above the line" system and compulsory preferences. The main reason for using STV isto maximise voter choice, but if they're not the ones actually making the choice, it somewhat defeats the purpose. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 8, 2013 13:32:10 GMT
Going through the Senate results from ABC's website, there are some strange distributions of preferences. In Victoria, it is noticeable that a large number of Socialist Equality Party voters seem to have second-preferenced the Liberals!
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,914
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Post by YL on Sept 8, 2013 13:42:00 GMT
Going through the Senate results from ABC's website, there are some strange distributions of preferences. In Victoria, it is noticeable that a large number of Socialist Equality Party voters seem to have second-preferenced the Liberals! These are "above the line" votes, determined as mentioned above by the party rather than the voters. For some reason the Socialist Equality Party splits its above the line votes into three (equal) "tickets", one of which goes to the Liberals before Labor and the Greens. You can see the full tickets for each party here. The full result, including the below the line votes, will take some time to be announced. There won't be very many below the line votes (is it even 1%?) so they probably won't make much difference, but they might if there are some close eliminations where someone has made some odd preferences. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 8, 2013 13:56:46 GMT
Going through the Senate results from ABC's website, there are some strange distributions of preferences. In Victoria, it is noticeable that a large number of Socialist Equality Party voters seem to have second-preferenced the Liberals! These are "above the line" votes, determined as mentioned above by the party rather than the voters. For some reason the Socialist Equality Party splits its above the line votes into three (equal) "tickets", one of which goes to the Liberals before Labor and the Greens. You can see the full tickets for each party here. The full result, including the below the line votes, will take some time to be announced. There won't be very many below the line votes (is it even 1%?) so they probably won't make much difference, but they might if there are some close eliminations where someone has made some odd preferences. Thanks for that, makes more sense now. I note from ABC that Nick Xenophon has made some comments about how bizarre some preferences have proven to me, especially on his patch. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 8, 2013 15:36:34 GMT
Current status of crazy close seats...
Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619
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Post by erlend on Sept 8, 2013 15:42:25 GMT
Is there any traditional view as to how below the line voting and how the very large number of remote voters affect things.
Pro/anti a party. Pro/Anti incumbents. Pro/anti incumbent government. Just like the rest of the voters for the seat so it rarely makes much odds.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 8, 2013 16:14:58 GMT
I'm certainly no advocate of introducing STV but I must agree with those that point out the Australian system is a bit of a farce. The Irish model (Republic or Northern) is a much better example of how STV can work. There the number of voters per representative is much lower and you can have a close personal contest. The same is true in Tasmania and the ACT who use it for lower house elections. But the number of voters per Senator in the federal parliament, or for that matter if we used it in the UK, would be so huge as to drown out all the intra-party stuff that the system's advocates make so much of. Between 1949 and 1984 the Senate used STV without the GVTs - was there a markedly greater voter-representative interaction or did most voters just follow the How To Vote cards? Going through the Senate results from ABC's website, there are some strange distributions of preferences. In Victoria, it is noticeable that a large number of Socialist Equality Party voters seem to have second-preferenced the Liberals! These are "above the line" votes, determined as mentioned above by the party rather than the voters. For some reason the Socialist Equality Party splits its above the line votes into three (equal) "tickets", one of which goes to the Liberals before Labor and the Greens. You can see the full tickets for each party here. The full result, including the below the line votes, will take some time to be announced. There won't be very many below the line votes (is it even 1%?) so they probably won't make much difference, but they might if there are some close eliminations where someone has made some odd preferences. Socialist Equality are Trots with a "plague on all your houses" attitude to other parties. Splitting their votes as much as they can between the major parties is their way of reconciling this uber no compromise line with the requirements of the voting system. Below the line votes are usually around 4% and sometimes do make a difference - I seem to recall one Tassie Senate election where the BTLs undermined some of the party deals and in the last WA state election (where they're "left of the line" due to a different layout) they made the difference in the Mining & Pastoral region (?). |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 8, 2013 16:24:49 GMT
They're basically a cult.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 8, 2013 16:32:37 GMT
Division of Kennedy
House: LNP 41.0, KAP 29.6, ALP 16.2, PUP 7.7, Greens 3.1, whateversky the rest
Senate: LNP 40.5, ALP 21.7, KAP 13.8, PUP 8.1, Greens 3.3, Shooters & Fishers 1.2, Fishing & Lifestyle 1.1
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 8, 2013 17:07:14 GMT
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 8, 2013 17:15:12 GMT
There's a Kevin Rudd lookalike in the pub I'm in by Euston.
Should really be in useless facts...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 8, 2013 18:00:41 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 8, 2013 18:15:37 GMT
Orange asterix on Fisher because that will presumably end up LNP/PUP rather than the norm.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,787
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 8, 2013 19:07:21 GMT
Current status of crazy close seats... Capricornia - ALP 140 Cylons have votes now? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 8, 2013 20:54:42 GMT
It'll be interesting to see if the Labor 2PP vote dipped below 50% in Victoria. Can't find any webpages with that information at present so it may be a case of having to add up the votes seat by seat.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 8, 2013 21:21:20 GMT
It'll be interesting to see if the Labor 2PP vote dipped below 50% in Victoria. Can't find any webpages with that information at present so it may be a case of having to add up the votes seat by seat. The 2PP result for 33 out of 37 Victorian divisions is as follows: Labor: 1,179,366 (50.29%) Coalition: 1,165,551 (49.71%) Batman, Melbourne, Indi and Mallee 2PP results are not yet available. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 8, 2013 21:24:09 GMT
Division of Kennedy House: LNP 41.0, KAP 29.6, ALP 16.2, PUP 7.7, Greens 3.1, whateversky the rest Senate: LNP 40.5, ALP 21.7, KAP 13.8, PUP 8.1, Greens 3.3, Shooters & Fishers 1.2, Fishing & Lifestyle 1.1 Looks like Mad Katter is not as popular as he thinks. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 22:26:45 GMT
Division of Kennedy House: LNP 41.0, KAP 29.6, ALP 16.2, PUP 7.7, Greens 3.1, whateversky the rest Senate: LNP 40.5, ALP 21.7, KAP 13.8, PUP 8.1, Greens 3.3, Shooters & Fishers 1.2, Fishing & Lifestyle 1.1 Looks like Mad Katter is not as popular as he thinks. Aye, but he looks to have been re-elected on the 2PP. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 22:41:20 GMT
Katter is interesting as it wasn't, to my knowledge, picked up in the media at all that he might be under threat (whereas e.g. Mirabella's problems were well reported).
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 8, 2013 23:29:42 GMT
It seems pretty likely that what nearly did for Katter was spending his time trying to promote his party elsewhere while largely taking his own seat for granted. I would guess that after having this scare he will be much less complacent next time and that his result will be more like what he is used to. This is the first time since his initial election in 1993 that he hasn't been top on first preferences.
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