Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 15, 2020 23:12:46 GMT
Supposing the 2015 Parliament was about to run its full 5 year course, and the two general elections held since then IRL had never happened. Then the coronavirus strikes. Would we now be looking at a six year Parliament?
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Who's leader of the opposition? In real life Labour's better than expected result in 2017 gave Corbyn extra longevity. You probably need a Remain vote in 2016 for this scenario to work as Cameron wasn't going to enact Brexit or hang around looking for excuses for not doing it.
If you assume a vote to remain in 2016 and Cameron standing down in 2019, as he had hinted he wanted to do, you would have a new PM/Conservative Leader having to ditch plans for a Spring General Election.
Who the new PM/Conservative Leader is makes a difference and after a remain victory I think its still likely that Boris Johnson beats off Osborne and May , unless he sees an implosion similar to what we saw in 2016 in our timeline.
Without Boris as Conservative Leader, I agree that UKIP and Farage are still polling 10-15%, possibly buoyed by sore-loser sentiment from Leave voters.
Suspect in this scenario that the GE would be pushed back to the autumn in the first instance, with the possibility it gets pushed all the way back to Spring 2021.
A public health emergency in any timeline could be seized on by opposition parties - in this scenario that could be a Corbyn-led Labour Party (if he survives) and the SNP (which would be six years on from a referendum and seeing domestic policy challenges wracking up).
I'm not sure you need to assume a Remain vote, simply that Theresa May doesn't go on her Welsh walking holiday. So Tories limp on with a majority Government, but with all the same divisions. My guess is that the withdrawal deal suffers massive defeats as before, there are the same divisions in the country, but there aren't quite the votes in parliament to set up indicative votes and the delay request bills.
Probably comes to a head mid 2019, May forced out pretty much as happened, so it probably ends up with a deal rushed through for October 2019, and a GE all about the future relationship - until coronavirus hits.
Ignoring Corona/Brexit, hard to see much change in the commons. Probably a minority tory gov. Hard to see Labour getting close with the SNP running rampant in Scotland. Libs/Greens/Plaid as you were.
"Every five years someone was elected to be Tyrant, provided he could prove that he was honest, intelligent, sensible, and trustworthy. Immediately after he was elected, of course, it was obvious to everyone that he was a criminal madman and totally out of touch with the view of the ordinary philosopher in the street looking for a towel. And then five years later they elected another one just like him, and really it was amazing how intelligent people kept on making the same mistakes."
A referendum would have happened in 2016, and Leave would have won.
Cameron would likely have still been replaced by May.
She would not have called her unfortunate moment in general election history, and would likely have delivered a dog's breakfast of a Brexit deal, in which red lines were red lines unless....Oh wait, this is Brexit talk and I did promise...Right, so WHAT OCCURRED DID HAPPEN IN THE EXPECTED MANNER.
As suggested above, even with a Leave vote in his favour, there is no general election in 2017 to shoot UKIP/Farage in both feet. He rebrands the Party (against their wishes but there we are) as UK Radical & Representation ("Because we all need a bit of R&R!") and keeps his tanks aimed at the Conservatives. Although R&R is not BNP, the result is much the same and Labour finds itself still inspecting why so many of its northern voters are persuaded by the "we're not racist but..." brigade. "We defeated Griffin and got Farage," notes an exhausted Corbyn-ite. "We assume we're working backwards through the alphabet."
I suspect that a clumsy Brexit would have happened, and May would have then gone for an election hoping for a Falklands-bounce. I'm sure the result would be very close to the real 2017 election.