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Post by greenhert on Mar 8, 2020 20:47:33 GMT
Lots of things would be different-the separation of Scotland from England, Wales & Northern Ireland would have resulted in a more lopsided EU referendum result, loss of vital technological revenue, greater Conservative dominance etc.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2020 21:21:16 GMT
It proved ridiculously difficult to take Britain out of a 40 year old (and much looser) Union, I can only imagine the difficulties which would have emerged in disentangling Scotland from a 300 year old full political Union. The SNP's already hyper-optimistic eighteen month negotiation timetable would have been blown to pieces, even if both sides negotiated in good faith.
I may return to this later.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2020 21:23:19 GMT
Lots of things would be different-the separation of Scotland from England, Wales & Northern Ireland would have resulted in a more lopsided EU referendum result, loss of vital technological revenue, greater Conservative dominance etc. There would not have been an EU referendum in 2016 had Scotland voted for Independence. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2020 2:34:02 GMT
It may have altered the dynamic of the Labour leadership election to the extent that Corbyn never becomes Labour leader.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 9, 2020 10:00:41 GMT
Lots of things would be different-the separation of Scotland from England, Wales & Northern Ireland would have resulted in a more lopsided EU referendum result, loss of vital technological revenue, greater Conservative dominance etc. Which technological revenue, apart from oil and video games? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 9, 2020 10:16:35 GMT
It may have altered the dynamic of the Labour leadership election to the extent that Corbyn never becomes Labour leader. Cameron would likely have resigned very soon after losing the referendum (just as he actually did with the 2016 one) Who would have been in pole position to take over then? May would still have been a serious contender, but would probably have faced stronger opposition. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2020 11:28:51 GMT
It may have altered the dynamic of the Labour leadership election to the extent that Corbyn never becomes Labour leader. Cameron would likely have resigned very soon after losing the referendum (just as he actually did with the 2016 one) Who would have been in pole position to take over then? May would still have been a serious contender, but would probably have faced stronger opposition. Osborne I imagine? Boris was of course still out of parliament at that point, and thus out of contention. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 9, 2020 11:50:57 GMT
There would of course have been a GE due in May 2015 - I wonder if there might have been an attempt to extend that parliament as a result of the Scottish situation?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2020 13:08:30 GMT
There would of course have been a GE due in May 2015 - I wonder if there might have been an attempt to extend that parliament as a result of the Scottish situation? Genuine question as I honestly have no idea - is there provisions within FTPA for extending the life of a parliament beyond five years in times of “national emergency”, i.e. in the case of the 1935-1945 parliament? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 9, 2020 14:53:59 GMT
Lots of things would be different-the separation of Scotland from England, Wales & Northern Ireland would have resulted in a more lopsided EU referendum result, loss of vital technological revenue, greater Conservative dominance etc. Which technological revenue, apart from oil and video games? Life sciences in Dundee and so on. Scotland, particularly Glasgow Edinburgh and Dundee, has become a hub for the tech sector, with the technology sector growing at one and a half times faster than the overall economy, adding 100k jobs. Edinburgh alone, has contributed an extra 4bn to the UK economy via the technology sector, is rated the best place for tech employees to work in the UK and one in five vacancies here is in tech. Not insignificant in a small country like Scotland. |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 9, 2020 18:57:48 GMT
There would of course have been a GE due in May 2015 - I wonder if there might have been an attempt to extend that parliament as a result of the Scottish situation? Genuine question as I honestly have no idea - is there provisions within FTPA for extending the life of a parliament beyond five years in times of “national emergency”, i.e. in the case of the 1935-1945 parliament? No. But in the case of a "national emergency" which would preclude elections Parliament would be perfectly capable of passing new legislation to suspend the provisions of the FTPA for the duration. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2020 19:03:26 GMT
There would of course have been a GE due in May 2015 - I wonder if there might have been an attempt to extend that parliament as a result of the Scottish situation? Although if I were David Cameron I would have let it happen because the Tories would have been almost guaranteed a majority in parliament. |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Mar 9, 2020 21:22:04 GMT
Almost the same as Scotland leaving today a complex 3 way. A lot would depend on the gap between what Scotland wants from its membership and what terms the EU wants to offer with in 2014 the EU maybe seeing a chance to cut the rebate plus other stuff.
NI would likely go a few year after Scotland leaving.
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Mar 10, 2020 11:11:23 GMT
And ten years later Wales.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 10, 2020 12:03:09 GMT
Which technological revenue, apart from oil and video games? Life sciences in Dundee and so on. Scotland, particularly Glasgow Edinburgh and Dundee, has become a hub for the tech sector, with the technology sector growing at one and a half times faster than the overall economy, adding 100k jobs. Edinburgh alone, has contributed an extra 4bn to the UK economy via the technology sector, is rated the best place for tech employees to work in the UK and one in five vacancies here is in tech. Not insignificant in a small country like Scotland. Interesting, thanks. |
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Post by myth11 on Mar 10, 2020 15:11:58 GMT
And ten years later Wales. You may want to work on connecting north and south wales by power/rail plus even the road network is not that great. |
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Mar 15, 2020 10:29:07 GMT
And ten years later Wales. You may want to work on connecting north and south wales by power/rail plus even the road network is not that great. That we need to do, very much so... Carmarthen to Aber line for a start. |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 2, 2020 11:29:35 GMT
Just bumping this thread, with a slight tweak, on the back of conversations I've had in recent weeks with 3 (separate) Scots that I know on this subject.
They all voted NO in 2014, but they all said that, with hindsight (with this of course being before the EU ref vote) - if they had known that leaving the Eu was very likely in the near future - all 3 would have reluctantly voted YES.
So, does anyone have an opinion on how the IndyRef result would have gone if the vote had been held in, say September 2016, rather than September 2014?
And if Scotland had voted YES in 2016, how would that have affected negotiations between rUK and EU ; and how would the EU have handled the Scottish situation [as at the time of a Sept 16 Indy vote the UK was still a fully signed-up EU member, well before Article 50 expired, so it would be different to how the situation would be if Scotland voted Indy in any subsequent IndyRef vote, as the UK will have now fully left the EU by the time any future IndyRef vote takes place.]
*NB I tagged this on to the existing IndyRef thread, as I thought it was similar in nature, but if Admins think it merits a separate thread, please do the necessary
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Post by myth11 on Aug 2, 2020 12:57:04 GMT
Just bumping this thread, with a slight tweak, on the back of conversations I've had in recent weeks with 3 (separate) Scots that I know on this subject. They all voted NO in 2014, but they all said that, with hindsight (with this of course being before the EU ref vote) - if they had known that leaving the Eu was very likely in the near future - all 3 would have reluctantly voted YES. So, does anyone have an opinion on how the IndyRef result would have gone if the vote had been held in, say September 2016, rather than September 2014? And if Scotland had voted YES in 2016, how would that have affected negotiations between rUK and EU ; and how would the EU have handled the Scottish situation [as at the time of a Sept 16 Indy vote the UK was still a fully signed-up EU member, well before Article 50 expired, so it would be different to how the situation would be if Scotland voted Indy in any subsequent IndyRef vote, as the UK will have now fully left the EU by the time any future IndyRef vote takes place.] *NB I tagged this on to the existing IndyRef thread, as I thought it was similar in nature, but if Admins think it merits a separate thread, please do the necessary Very complex But in simple terms no election in 2017 and may,s deal or something close to it is agreed . What blocked a deal was combo of hard remainers and hard leavers but get rid of 60 of the former plus add 33 tory mps in remain/soft leave seats that were lost in 2017 then the odds of deal look a lot better. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 2, 2020 13:35:40 GMT
But if the Scottish had voted yes in 2014, would the EU referendum outcome been a No due to that experience?
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