Prediction Competition - March 2020

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ASHFORD Park Farm North: C 50, GP 20, L Dem 12, Ash Ind 10, Lab 8
HIGHLAND Eliean a' Cheò: Ind Munro 47, SNP 28, C 10, L Dem 9, Misneachd 3, SGP 3. Ind Munro win.
SOUTH SOMERSET Parrett: L Dem 52, C 30, Ind 13, GP 5
STRATFORD ON AVON Welford on Avon: C 50, L Dem 31, Ind 8, GP 6, Lab 5

[Robert Waller]

Ashford, Park Farm North Con 50, Ash Ind 22, Lib Dem 13, Lab 10, Green 5

Highland, Eilean a Cheo Ind Munro 40, SNP 32, Con 9, Lib Dem 9, Green 5, Misneachd 5 Ind Munro to win

South Somerset, Parrett. Lib Dem 45, Con 23, Ind Ashton 27, Green 5

Stratford, Welford on Avon Con 41, Appleton 18, Lib Dem 31, Lab 6, Green 4

[iainbhx]

Park Farm North (Ashford DC) : Con 46 Ashford Ind 20 Lab 14 LDm 12 Grn 8
Eliean a'Cheo (Highland SUA) : Ind Munro 40 SNP 26 LDm 16 Con 10 Grn 7 Ind Misneachd 1 Ind Munro to Win
Parrett (South Somerset DC): LDm 48 Con 32 Ind 16 Grn 4
Welford on Avon (Stratford on Avon DC): LDm 41 Ind Appleton 23 Con 21 Lab 9 Grn 6

[rightleaning]

Ashford DC, Park Farm North: C 52, Ash Ind 22, LD 12, Lab 7, Gn 7.
Highland UA, Eilean Cheo (1st preferences): Ind (Munro) 52, SNP 28, C 9, Gn 6, LD 4, Misneachd 1.
South Somerset DC, Parrett: LDs 42, C 37, Ind (Ashton) 12, Gn 9.
Stratford-on-Avon DC, Welford on Avon: C 38, LD 33, Ind (Appleton) 17, Gn 8, Lab 4.

[bjornhattan]

Ashford, Park Farm North: Con 53, Ashford Ind 15, Lab 12, Grn 11, LDm 9
Highland, Eliean a Cheo: Munro 43, SNP 20, LDm 18, Con 9, Grn 6, Misneachd 4. Munro elected.
South Somerset, Parrett: Con 42, LDm 41, Ashton 14, Grn 3
Stratford, Welford on Avon: Con 36, LDm 31, Appleton 21, Lab 7, Grn 5

[robbienicoll]

10 entries tonight with Bert and Right Leaning joining. All on time and correct.

Park Farm North, Ashford: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 22.5% (alien8ted) to 38% (bjornhattan).
Eilean a Cheo, Highland: 100% Independent (Munro) win, 5 predicting a win on first preferences and 5 after transfers.
Parrett, South Somerset: 9 Liberal Democrat hold, with bjornhattan Conservative gain.
Welword on Avon, Stratford on Avon: 5 Conservative gain from Independent and 5 Liberal Democrat gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TSYP3ZV5lBycN9-PprtRVkJvcFkhHxGzDQIGt4sT1S0/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[iainbhx]

Well Park Farm North has really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

[Robert Waller]

Very well done, Iain, easily the best this week - both before Skye and, I think, on it ...

[iainbhx]

Mar 13, 2020 19:26:10 GMT Robert Waller said:

Very well done, Iain, easily the best this week - both before Skye and, I think, on it ...

I suspect bjornhattan and I both spotted the geographical distribution of the candidates.

[robbienicoll]

Apologies for the delay in getting the Highland result uploaded, I was at a conference which should have been cancelled but was only done so today after the organisers figured that there were reps from the University of Turin present... Anyway, congratulations to Iain for the week which also gives him a monthly lead over robertwaller and Tony Otim. Full results are in the link upthread.

[Harry Hayfield]

I don't normally enter these competitions, but I will for the by-elections being held on Thursday:

Clackmannanshire East on Clackmannanshire: SNP GAIN from Con (SNP 33%, Con 32%, Lab 16%, Lib Dem 10%, Green 9%)
Upper Stoke on Coventry: Labour HOLD (Lab 70%, Green 15%, Con 8%, Socialist Alternative 7%)
Chilworth, Nursling and Rownhams on Test Valley: Lib Dem GAIN from Con (Lib Dem 65%, Con 35%)
Newington on Thanet: Ind GAIN from Lab (Ind 33%, Lab 32%, Con 25%, Green 10%)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

In case theyre still on

CLACKMANNANSHIRE UA; Clackmannanshire East
Conservative 43%
SNP 26%
Labour 21%
Liberal Democrat 7%
Green 3%
Conservative Win

COVENTRY CC; Upper Stoke
Labour 47%
Conservative 37.1%
Green 8.9%
Socialist Alternative 7%

TEST VALLEY DC; Chilworth, Nursling and Rownhams
Conservative 58%
Liberal Democrat 42%

THANET DC; Newington
Labour 42%
Conservative 29.1%
Green 28%
Independent 0.9%

👽

[Deleted]

Clackmannanshire East on Clackmannanshire: , Con 50%, SNP 30%, Lab 14%, Lib Dem 4%, Green 2%
Upper Stoke on Coventry: Lab 48%, Green 14%, Con 35%, Socialist Alternative 3%)
Chilworth, Nursling and Rownhams on Test Valley: Lib Dem 40%, Con 60%
Newington on Thanet: Lab 55%, Con 35%, Green 9%, Indie 1%

[iainbhx]

Two (Newington and Clacks) appear to be cancelled already. Do we convene the Pools Panel?

Coventry is still going ahead.

[yellowperil]

Mar 18, 2020 19:27:24 GMT iainbhx said:

Two (Newington and Clacks) appear to be cancelled already. Do we convene the Pools Panel?

Coventry is still going ahead.

We are the pools panel.

[Tony Otim]

Coventry: Lab 49.2; Con 30.8; Grn 13.1; Soc Alt 6.9
Test Valley: Con 66.2; LD 33.8

[Robert Waller]

Coventry: Lab 50; Con 30; Grn 15; Soc Alt 5
Test Valley: Con 60; LD 40

[bjornhattan]

Coventry, Upper Stoke: Lab 46, Con 36, Grn 10, Socialist 8
Test Valley, Chilworth, Nursling, and Rownhams: Con 53, LDm 47

[ricmk]

This might be the last chance in a while so why not:

Test Valley: Match postponed (waterlogged pitch). pools panel say no score draw.

Coventry: Lab 53 Con 33 Green 8 SocAl 6

[greenhert]

Coventry MBC, Upper Stoke: Labour 48, Conservative 36, Green 9, Socialist 7.

The other by-elections have been cancelled...