Prediction Competition - March 2020

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Apologies to robbienicoll for preempting his thread but if don't predict today I'll forget Tuesdays vote.

WILTSHIRE UA; Till and Wylye Valley
Liberal Democrat 52.2%
Conservative 46%
Labour 1.8%

ASHFORD DC; Park Farm North
Conservative 44.5%
Liberal Democrat 22%
Labour 16%
Ashford Independent 13%
Green 4.5%

HIGHLAND UA; Eliean a Cheo
Independent 39%
SNP 33%
Conservative 15%
Liberal Democrat 4.8%
Green 4.2%
No Description 4%
Independent wins seat

SOUTH SOMERSET DC; Parrett
Liberal Democrat 48%
Conservative 46.5%
Green 3.9%
Independent 1.6%

STRATFORD ON AVON DC; Welford on Avon
Liberal Democrats 44.3%
Conservative 40%
Green 8.9%
Labour 5.4%
Independent 1.4%

👽

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 13 by-elections for 15 seats during March including two "double" elections:
- 1 on 10th March
- 4 on 12th
- 4 on 19th
- 4 on 26th including two "double" elections

6 of the by-elections including one "double" election are for District Councils, all elected in May
2 are in a Unitary Authority including one "double" election, one where the last election was in May and one where the last election was in 2017
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough where the last election was in May
2 are for Scottish authorities last elected in 2017 and
1 is for a County Council last elected in 2017

Conservatives defend 7 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 a resignation
Labour defend 4 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 1 following a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 2 a resignation

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 15 candidates, Labour have 12, Liberal Democrats have 10, Greens have 11 (two of those Scottish Greens), SNP have 2 whilst Socialist Alternative and Ashford Independents have 1 apiece along with 4 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 4 seats
- a total of 57 candidates for 15 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Thanks Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith for reminding me there's one on Tuesday!

[Tony Otim]

Mar 8, 2020 16:47:51 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 13 by-elections for 15 seats during March including two "double" elections:
- 1 on 10th March
- 4 on 12th
- 4 on 19th
- 4 on 26th including two "double" elections

6 of the by-elections including one "double" election are for District Councils, all elected in May
2 are in a Unitary Authority including one "double" election, one where the last election was in May and one where the last election was in 2017
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough where the last election was in May
2 are for Scottish authorities last elected in 2017 and
1 is for a County Council last elected in 2017

Conservatives defend 7 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 a resignation
Labour defend 4 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 1 following a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 2 a resignation

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 15 candidates, Labour have 12, Liberal Democrats have 10, Greens have 11 (one of those Scottish Green), SNP have 2 whilst Socialist Alternative and Ashford Independents have 1 apiece along with 4 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 4 seats
- a total of 57 candidates for 15 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Thanks Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith for reminding me there's one on Tuesday!

I think that's two Scottish Greens 😉

[yellowperil]

Given that I am likely to be in and out of hospital in the next week or so, I think I will dip out of the prediction competition for this month. It will also of course save me the embarassment of trying to predict Park Farm North.

[robbienicoll]

Mar 8, 2020 18:24:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mar 8, 2020 16:47:51 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 13 by-elections for 15 seats during March including two "double" elections:
- 1 on 10th March
- 4 on 12th
- 4 on 19th
- 4 on 26th including two "double" elections

6 of the by-elections including one "double" election are for District Councils, all elected in May
2 are in a Unitary Authority including one "double" election, one where the last election was in May and one where the last election was in 2017
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough where the last election was in May
2 are for Scottish authorities last elected in 2017 and
1 is for a County Council last elected in 2017

Conservatives defend 7 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 a resignation
Labour defend 4 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor and 1 following a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 2 a resignation

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 15 candidates, Labour have 12, Liberal Democrats have 10, Greens have 11 (one of those Scottish Green), SNP have 2 whilst Socialist Alternative and Ashford Independents have 1 apiece along with 4 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 4 seats
- a total of 57 candidates for 15 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Thanks Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith for reminding me there's one on Tuesday!

I think that's two Scottish Greens 😉

Now amended, must have missed that at some point of writing!

[Robert Waller]

WILTSHIRE UA; Till and Wylye Valley

Liberal Democrat 50%
Conservative 47%
Labour 3%

[greenhert]

(for 10/3/20) Wiltshire UA, Till & Wylye Valley:

Liberal Democrats 49
Conservative 47
Labour 4

[Tony Otim]

Wiltshire: LD 51.2; Con 47.6; Lab 1.2

[bjornhattan]

Till and Wylye Valley, Wiltshire: Con 48, LDm 48, Lab 4 (Con to win by a whisker)

[iainbhx]

Till & Wylye Valley (Wiltshire UA) : Con 48 LDm 46 Lab 6

[andrewp]

Wiltshire. Till and Wylye Valley Lib Dem 50, Con 47, Lab 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

WILTSHIRE Till and Wylye Valley: L Dem 57, C 38, Lab 5

[robbienicoll]

8 entries to open the month, I'm assuming one or two forgot the early start. All entries on time and correct.

Till and Wylye Valley, Wiltshire: 6 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with bjornhattan and iainbhx Conservative hold.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GDx5SUrhOXK8Vk3Z6f5AA1opiPQBaw9kna_ncVPwwwU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Tony Otim]

And for THursday, I predict some high scores:

Ashford: Con 49.4; Ash Ind 18.1; LD 13.6; Grn 11.4; Lab 7.5
Highland: Munro 53.5; SNP 30.8; Con 7.1; LD 4.7; Grn 2.1; Misneachd 1.8
South Somerset: LD 44.8; Con 28.5; Ashton 17.1; Grn 9.6
Stratford On Avon: LD 32.7; Appleton 29.2; Con 25.9; Grn 7.9; Lab 4.3

[johnloony]

Interesting to see that almost everybody was very close in their predictions for yesterday
Even more interesting is that most people predicted the wrong winner despite ditto

[yellowperil]

Mar 11, 2020 0:40:48 GMT johnloony said:

Interesting to see that almost everybody was very close in their predictions for yesterday
Even more interesting is that most people predicted the wrong winner despite ditto

Not sure about "interesting",  Getting the result approximately right is a matter of good prediction and can be based on a good political assessment of the national situation, local knowledge, etc. Getting the result exactly right is always a matter of luck because when it comes down to a handful of votes there is no way the result can be exactly "predicted" -it can only be guessed. How can you predict that x will change her mind on the way into the polling booth or y won't vote because he was suddenly taken poorly? In an election down to recount territory (maybe it was even closer before the recount?)there is no way anyone can call it either way. In the end it was called by bjornhattan 's whiskers - he was right in that, but just lucky as to which way it fell.

[robbienicoll]

Results now updated, congrats to bjornhattan and iainbhx on correct winners. Reminder that next batch are due by 9am tomorrow and include Scottish contests so include the ultimate winner alongside the first preference one.

[Deleted]

Ashford: Con 53; Ash Ind 19; LD 12; Grn 8; Lab 8

Highland: Munro 63; SNP 22; Con 6; LD 5; Grn 3; Misneachd 1

South Somerset: LD 46; Con 27; Ashton 15; Grn 12

Stratford On Avon: LD 41; Appleton 22; Con 23; Grn 11; Lab 3

[greenhert]

Ashford DC, Park Farm North: Conservative 55, Ashford Independent 20, Liberal Democrats 11, Labour 7, Green 7.
Highland UA, Eilean Cheo (1st preferences): Independent (Munro) 61, SNP 22, Conservative 7, Green 5, Liberal Democrat 4, Martainn Misneachd 1.
South Somerset DC, Parrett: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 34, Independent (Ashton) 14, Green 7.
Stratford-on-Avon DC, Welford on Avon: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 27, Independent (Appleton) 10, Green 10, Labour 5.

[andrewp]

Ashford, Park Farm North Con 50, AshInd 18, Lib Dem 15, Lab 12, Green 5
Highland, Eilean a Cheo Ind Munro 51, SNP 29, Con 9, Lib Dem 6, Green 3, Misneachd 2
South Somerset, Parrett. Lib Dem 44, Con 36, Ind Ashton 15, Green 5
Stratford, Welford on Avon Con 34, Appleton 28, Lib Dem 28, Lab 5, Green 5