J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,778 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 10, 2020 12:17:29 GMT
So, as a first stab, multiply all by four? That gives: SF: 60 FF: 44 FG: 32 Oth: 20 (I seem to be missing one somewhere) SF government in partnership with somebody else. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 10, 2020 13:30:23 GMT
Sligo-Leitrim MARTIN KENNY, SF 15,035 (elected - quota 12,137) MARC MACSHARRY, FF 7,004 MARIAN HARKIN, IND 6,972 EAMON SCANLON, FF 6,246 FRANKIE FEIGHAN, FG 5,338 THOMAS WALSH, FG 4,760 SHANE ELLIS, FF 2,753 DECLAN BREE, I4C 2,236 BLÁITHÍN GALLAGHER, GP 1,791 GINO O'BOYLE, SOL-PBP 1,746 JOHN PERRY, IND 1,367 JAMES CONWAY, IND 1,354 SEAN WYNNE, IND 1,310 NESSA COSGROVE, LAB 1,178 BERNIE O'HARA, IND 650 PAUL MCWEENEY, NP 451 ANNE MCCLOSKEY, AON 368 OISIN O'DWYER, RN 75 MARY O'DONNELL, IND 46 SF 15 035 for one candidate FF 16 003 from 3 ............seat to FF If Harkin is transfer-friendly, FF might end up with just 1 or FG with none. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 10, 2020 13:31:46 GMT
Finally Cavan-Monaghan has produced its first preference results so all are in. SF 24.5% FF 22.2% FG 20.9% Inds 12.2% GP 7.1% Lab 4.4% SD 2.9% Sol/PBP 2.6% Aontú 1.9% Minor parties 1.3% Finally SF do what they need to do and win a close call, but with 12% of Indys to play for under FPTP, they might not have done so Those are the national figures referred to there. Sinn Fein were easily ahead in Cavan-Monaghan |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 10, 2020 13:44:57 GMT
This thread is an examination of how it might have looked under FPTP No Offence AlanOK sorry, I didn't notice, but I'm not really interested in obscure hypothetical election systems. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 10, 2020 13:48:54 GMT
Why on earth does any of this garbage concern you at all Boogie? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 17:45:48 GMT
The issue with this is that you can't assume any of these constituencies would exist under FPTP. For one thing it would be too high a level of electoral and population inequality, for another there's no way that you'd have a 39 seat parliament. You have no way of knowing how the seats would divide up if those constituencies were split for FPTP. A four-member seat where SF topped the poll but FG won more votes could split 3-1 for SF, 2-2, or even 2-1-1 with FF winning a seat. Without collecting results for each electoral division and drawing your own constituency boundaries it's impossible to work out what the result would have been under FPTP.
EDIT: Just read the opening post properly. My point that this is ludicrous still stands.
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Post by therealriga on Feb 10, 2020 18:34:19 GMT
This is a good job, though if you want to do it properly, you'd need to try drawing a full set of 160 FPTP constituencies. You can do the first step in this by allocating based on the census, since that's what R of Ireland uses, rather than electorates. I'm assuming a fairly generous deviation (12.5%) and that that they'll try and avoid crossing local authority boundaries and provincial boundaries where possible. ULSTER 9.97 seats, rounds to 10. This is the potentially awkward one as it's non-contiguous and most of the time would need to be linked with Connaught. Not this time. Donegal (5.35 quotas) gets 5 seats. Cavan (2.56) and Monaghan (2.06) paired for 5. CONNAUGHT 18.50, rounds down to 18 due to allocations elsewhere. Galway City (2.64) paired with Galway county (6.03) for 9 seats. Leitrim (1.08) gets one. Roscommon (2.17) and Sligo (2.20) get two each. Mayo (4.39) gets 4. MUNSTER 43.01 gets 43. Clare (3.99) for 4. Cork County (14.02) for 14. Cork City (4.22) for 4. Kerry (4.96) for 5. Limerick (6.55) for 7 Tipperary (5.36) gets 5. Waterford (3.90) for 4. LEINSTER 88.52 rounding to 89 gets awkward finding the 89th seat. Maybe easier depending on allocation criteria to give a 19th to Connaught, but... Fingal (9.95) for 10. Dublin City (18.63) gets 19. Dún Laoghaire (7.33) for 7. Now the tricky bit.... Offaly (2.62) Kildare (7.48) South Dublin (9.37) If you need 89 seats, Offaly gets 3 and the other two paired for 17. If 88 seats, SD gets 9 and the others paired for 10. Carlow (1.91) paired with Kilkenny (3.33) for 5. Laois (2.85) for 3. Louth (4.33) for 4. Meath (6.55) for 7. (Possibility of a pairing with Louth.) Logford (1.37) paired with Westmeath (2.98) for 4. Wexford (5.03) and Wicklow (4.79) both for 5. You'd have to drill down into local electoral divisions to draw the lot, but you could do a quarter of it by working off this map... www.citypopulation.de/php/ireland-dublin.php |
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Post by therealriga on Feb 10, 2020 19:42:28 GMT
BYW o am not remotely interested in arguing for FPTP I was simply offering an answer to the question what would this result have been under FPTP Answer is not much different. Democracy works itself out Yep, I gotcha but it's a psephological forum, so I doubt anyone will criticise you for a bit of nice work on fantasy constituencies. I agree that, apart from a boost for the three largest parties, the result wouldn't be massively different. FPTP constituencies would be small enough given the existing political culture to give independents a shot. It would be hard for them to make provincial boundaries and county boundaries sacrosanct without allowing large deviations. Longford is 37% above quota (or 32% below if you use the arithmetic mean) if not paired. Ulster is split, due to most of it being in NI, with Donegal at one end and Cavan & Monaghan at the other. You can often only solve that by crossing provincial boundaries or by having non-contiguous constituencies. Btw, regarding number of constituencies, the constitution defines not more than 1 per 30,000 people and not less than 1 per 20,000, which can only be changed by referendum. Based on the 2016 census, that gives a permitted range of 159 to 238 seats: they had to increase the size of the Dail for this election from 158 to 160 to keep it within the lower limit, so the only way is up. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,778
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 10, 2020 19:51:59 GMT
so here is the summary FF 13 inc Speaker SF 15 FG 8 Independent 4 Multiply by four to get 160 TDs: SF: 60 FF: 52 FG: 32 Oth: 16 Fairly close to my first stab based on the Wiki first preference map: SF: 60 FF: 44 FG: 32 Oth: 20 Good enough for broad brush finger-in-the-air comparative estimates. |
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Post by tiberius on Feb 11, 2020 11:41:42 GMT
@boogieeck would you be interested in me helping you with this?
the drawing constituencies part i mean
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