Prediction Competition - February 2020

[robbienicoll]

Feb 21, 2020 12:05:03 GMT andrewp said:

Feb 21, 2020 8:57:35 GMT robbienicoll said:

We all recovered from that one then? I've updated the results putting Morrish in ahead of Lowther although that's still pending confirmation. Indeed that particular candidate was mostly responsible for the high scoring this week. Bert is also correct that first time entries do get some leniency on late postings so I've halved the penalty there. Congratulations to Right Leaning for the week and for taking pole position for the month. 7 next week so still all to play for.

Morrish got 88, Lowther 90

That's now been changed on the results page, doesn't affect any rankings.

[Tony Otim]

What a tricky bunch to finish the month!

Blaby: Con 51.2; Lab 34.2; Grn 14.6
Cambridgeshire: Con 53; LD 47
Cheshire East: Lab 51.9; Con 28.8; Grn 9.9; Cartlidge 5.4; Silvester 4.0
Hillingdon: Con 53.9; Lan 29.3; LD 8.9; UKIP 4.7; Grn 3.2
Manchester: Dobson 44.4; Lab 42.1; LD 6.0; Con 4.3; Grn 3.2
South Cambs: Con 60.7; LD 39.3
Wrexham: Con 21.0; Davies 18.6; Lab 15.7; PC 12.6; McCann 10.5; LD 9.0; Hay 7.0; Grn 5.6

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

BLABY DC; Millfield
Conservative 45.1%
Labour 45%
Green 9.9%

CAMBRIDGESHIRE CC; Duxford
Conservative 52
Liberal Democrat 48

CHESHIRE EAST UA; Crewe South
Candidates:
Labour 50%
Conservative 35.1%
Green 9.9%
SILVESTER (Independent) 3.4%
CARTLIDGE, (Independent) 1.6%

HILLINGDON LBC; Hillingdon East
Conservative 54.1%
Liberal Democrat 19.5%
Labour 19.4%
Green 4.9%
UKIP 2.1%

MANCHESTER MBC; Clayton and Openshaw
DOBSON, (Independent) 42.6%
Labour 42.2%
Conservative 6.8%
Green 5.1%
Liberal Democrats 3.3%

SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Whittlesford
Conservative 63.2%
Liberal Democrat 36.8%

WREXHAM UA; Gwersyllt North
Conservative 23%
Labour 22%
Plaid Cymru 21%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Green 8%
DAVIES, Martyn (Independent) 7%
HAY, Helen (Independent) 6%
McCANN, Bernie (Independent) 4%

👽

[greenhert]

Blaby DC, Millfield: Conservative 50, Labour 40, Green 10.
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 52, Conservative 48. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 48, Conservative 32, Green 10, Independent (Cartlidge) 8, Independent (Silvester) 2.
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 57, Labour 28, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 5, UKIP 2.
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Independent (Dobson) 43, Labour 41, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservative 5. Independent gain from Labour.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrats 40.
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: Labour 26, Conservative 24, Plaid Cymru 20, Independent (Davies) 11, Independent (Hay) 8, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent (McCann) 3. Labour gain from Independent.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BLABY Millfield: C 50, Lab 30, GP 20
CAMBRIDGESHIRE Duxford: L Dem 60, C 40
CHESHIRE EAST Crewe South: Lab 47, C 31, Ind Cartlidge 9, Ind Silvester 8, GP 5
HILLINGDON Hillingdon East: C 58, Lab 27, L Dem 8, GP 4, UKIP 3
MANCHESTER Clayton and Openshaw: Ind 46, Lab 37, C 8, L Dem 5, GP 4
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE Whittlesford: C 60, L Dem 40
WREXHAM Gwersyllt North: Lab 26, Ind Davies 22, C 16, Ind Hay 10, Ind McCann 9, PC 9, L Dem 5, GP 3

[Robert Waller]

Blaby DC, Millfield: Conservative 45, Labour 43, Green 12.
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 45.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 61, Conservative 25, Green 5, Independent (Cartlidge) 5, Independent (Silvester) 4.
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 58, Labour 31, Liberal Democrats 6, Green 3, UKIP 2.
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Independent (Dobson) 43, Labour 45, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 3, Conservative 4.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrats 40.
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: Labour 20, Conservative 20, Plaid Cymru 16, Independent (Davies) 21, Independent (Hay) 5, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent (McCann) 10.

[yellowperil]

Blaby, Millfield: Con 50, Lab 38, Green 12
Cambs, Duxford: Con 49.5, LD 50.5
Cheshire E, Crewe South: Con 33, Lab 47, Green 10, Cartlidge 7, Silvester 3
Hillingdon, Hillingdon East: Con 55, Lab 30, LD 8, Green 5, UKIP 2
Manchester, Clayton & Openshaw: Con 5, Lab 40, LD4,Green 5, Dobson 46
South Cambs,Whittlesford: Con 59, LD 41
Wrexham, Gwersyllt N: Con21, Lab 25, LD 5, Green 4, PC19, Davies 14, Hay 8, McCann 4

[bjornhattan]

Blaby, Millfield: Con 47, Lab 36, Green 17
Cambridgeshire, Duxford: LDm 58, Con 42
Cheshire East, Crewe South: Lab 46, Con 40, Silvester 7, Green 4, Cartlidge 3
Hillingdon, Hillingdon East: Con 47, Lab 34, LDm 12, Green 4, UKIP 3
Manchester, Clayton and Openshaw: Dobson 58, Lab 30, Green 5, Con 4, LDm 3
South Cambridgeshire, Whittlesford: LDm 54, Con 46
Wrexham, Gwersyllt North: Davies 21, Con 20.5, Lab 20, Plaid 14, McCann 11.5, LDm 8, Green 3, Hay 2

[iainbhx]

Millfield (Blaby DC): Con 48 Lab 44 Grn 8
Duxford (Cambridgeshire CC) Con 53 LDm 47
Crewe South (Cheshire East UA) Lab 51 Con 37 Grn 5 Silvester 4 Cartlidge 3
Hillingdon East (Hillingdon LBC): Con 46 Lab 34 LDm 13 Grn 5 UKIP 2
Clayton & Openshaw (Manchester MBC): Lab 42 Ind (Dobson) 40 Con 7 Grn 6 LDm 5
Whittlesford (South Cambridgeshire DC): Con 62 LDm 38
Gwersyllt N (Wrexham WUA): Ind (Davies) 23 Con 21 Lab 19 Plaid 16 Ind (McCann) 8 LDm 6 Ind (Hay) 5 Grn 2

[yellowperil]

Feb 27, 2020 6:27:37 GMT iainbhx said:

Millfield (Blaby DC): Con 48 Lab 44 Grn 8
Duxford (Cambridgeshire CC) Con 53 LDm 47
Crewe South (Cheshire East UA) Lab 51 Con 37 Grn 5 Silvester 4 Cartlidge 3
Hillingdon East (Hillingdon LBC): Con 46 Lab 34 LDm 13 Grn 5 UKIP 2
Clayton & Openshaw (Manchester MBC): Lab 42 Ind (Dobson) 40 Con 7 Grn 6 LDm 5
Whittlesford (South Cambridgeshire DC): Con 62 LDm 38
Gwersyllt N (Wrexham WUA): Ind (Davies) 24 Con 22 Lab 20 Plaid 17 Ind (McCann) 9 Ind (Hay) 5 Grn 3

Iain- did you deliberately leave out a certain candidate in Wrexham or was it an oversight?

[rightleaning]

Blaby DC, Millfield: C 46, Lab 42, Gn 12.
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: C 51, LD 49.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Lab 49, C 37, Gn 5, Ind (Cartlidge) 5, Ind (Silvester) 4.
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: C 51, Lab 31, LD 11, Gn 6, UKIP 1.
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Lab 48, Ind (Dobson) 40, Gn 6, LD 3, C 3.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: C 62, LD 38.
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: C 24, Ind (Davies) 21, Lab 19, PC 14, Ind (McCann) 9, Ind (Hay) 6, LD 5, Gn 2.

[andrewp]

Blaby, Millfield. Con 48, Lab 46, Green 6
Cambridgeshire, Duxford Lib Dem 51, Con 49
Cheshire East, Crewe South Lab 56, Con 28, Cartlidge 7, Green 6, Silvester 3
Hillingdon, Hillingdon East. Con 56, Lab 30, Lib Dem 8, Green 4, UKIP 2
Manchester. Clayton and Openshaw Dobson 44, Lab 42, Lib Dem 5, Green 5, Con 4
South Cambridgeshire, Whittlesford Con 62, Lib Dem 38
Wrexham, Gwersyllt North. Davies 25, Lab 24, Con 22, Hay 9, PC 7, McCann 6, Lib Dem 4, Green 3

[Deleted]

Blaby DC, Millfield: C 50, Lab 40, Gn 10.
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: C 55, LD 45.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Lab 40, C 30, Gn 10, Ind (Cartlidge) 15, Ind (Silvester) 5.
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: C 45, Lab 25, LD 15, Gn 10, UKIP 5.
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Lab 45, Ind (Dobson) 25, Gn 10, LD 15, C 5.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: C 60, LD 40.
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: C 20, Ind (Davies) 30, Lab 15, PC 10, Ind (McCann) 15, Ind (Hay) 10, LD 5, Gn 5.

[iainbhx]

Feb 27, 2020 7:11:35 GMT yellowperil said:

Feb 27, 2020 6:27:37 GMT iainbhx said:

Millfield (Blaby DC): Con 48 Lab 44 Grn 8
Duxford (Cambridgeshire CC) Con 53 LDm 47
Crewe South (Cheshire East UA) Lab 51 Con 37 Grn 5 Silvester 4 Cartlidge 3
Hillingdon East (Hillingdon LBC): Con 46 Lab 34 LDm 13 Grn 5 UKIP 2
Clayton & Openshaw (Manchester MBC): Lab 42 Ind (Dobson) 40 Con 7 Grn 6 LDm 5
Whittlesford (South Cambridgeshire DC): Con 62 LDm 38
Gwersyllt N (Wrexham WUA): Ind (Davies) 24 Con 22 Lab 20 Plaid 17 Ind (McCann) 9 Ind (Hay) 5 Grn 3

Iain- did you deliberately leave out a certain candidate in Wrexham or was it an oversight?

Thanks just caught it in time.

[Deleted]

Late again - I'll take my lumps .

Blaby DC, Millfield: Conservative 51, Labour 31, Green 18.
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 54, Conservative 46.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 50, Conservative 34, Green 8, Independent (Cartlidge) 4, Independent (Silvester) 4.
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 57, Labour 20, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 7, UKIP 4.
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Labour 45,Independent (Dobson) 34, Green 7, Liberal Democrats 7, Conservative 7.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: Conservative 51, Liberal Democrats 49.
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: Labour 18, Conservative 26, Plaid Cymru 16, Independent (Davies) 17, Independent (Hay) 5, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent (McCann) 10.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 27, 2020 12:01:23 GMT bert said:

Late again - I'll take my lumps .

Blaby DC, Millfield: Conservative 51, Labour 31, Green 18.
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 54, Conservative 46.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 50, Conservative 34, Green 8, Independent (Cartlidge) 4, Independent (Silvester) 4.
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 57, Labour 20, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 7, UKIP 4.
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Labour 45,Independent (Dobson) 34, Green 7, Liberal Democrats 7, Conservative 7.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: Conservative 51, Liberal Democrats 49.
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: Labour 18, Conservative 26, Plaid Cymru 16, Independent (Davies) 17, Independent (Hay) 5, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent (McCann) 10.

I try do it every Wednesday because I know i'd often forget if I left it to Thursday morning every week.

Good luck this week

👽

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, losing olympian95 and agbutler. I've halved Bert's late faults again for the maiden month bringing that down to 140. Iainbhx was slightly over the deadline in amending one contest so with this in mind and referring to earlier judgements receives 5 faults. Priceofdawn also gets 10 for going over in Wrexham.

Millfield, Blaby: 100% Conservative gain from Labour, with majorities ranging from 0.1% (alien8ted) to 20% (bert and David Boothroyd).
Duxford, Cambridgeshire: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, iainbhx, priceofdawn, Right Leaning and Tony Otim Conservative hold.
Crewe South, Cheshire East: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (bjornhattan) to 36% (robertwaller).
Hillingdon East, Hillingdon: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 12% (iainbhx) to 34.6% (alien8ted).
Clayton and Openshaw, Manchester: 7 Independent (Dobson) gain from Labour, with bert, iainbhx, priceofdawn, Right Leaning and robertwaller Labour hold.
Whittlesford, South Cambridgeshire: 11 Conservative hold, with bjornhattan Liberal Democrat gain.
Gwersyllt North, Wrexham: 5 Independent (Davies) win, with alien8ted, bert, Right Leaning and Tony Otim Conservative gain, and David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood and yellowperil Labour gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sM2y4luvTJv7Rdkhi3SHyn_COb9nWSJ1yhp-afPrQFI/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[andrewp]

There are going to be some big scores in Wrexham!

[bjornhattan]

Feb 27, 2020 23:18:02 GMT andrewp said:

There are going to be some big scores in Wrexham!

And also in Blaby - I thought this week seemed unusually hard, and the scores look set to reflect that!

[yellowperil]

Feb 27, 2020 23:18:02 GMT andrewp said:

There are going to be some big scores in Wrexham!

to compensate for very low scores by some of the actual candidates.