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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2020 11:46:31 GMT
There was also John Pugh smashing a Southport byelection in late 2017 (which of course told us little about how the subsequent GE there would go) Charlotte’s wasn’t a massive upset, it was triggered by the death of a local “personality”, a market trader, part of one of the Povey’s Oatcakes family (some will argue they’re the best, they’re not), who had successfully campaigned as an Independent in support of “the metric martyrs” and then gravitated to UKIP. Once he was off the scene the seat resorted to its more traditional Labour voting pattern. I think its fair to say that as with the other instances discussed (and indeed this one), the fact of her victory was not especially noteworthy but the scale of it was |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 14, 2020 11:49:18 GMT
Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December I was going to say the same thing and use the same examples. There is also a possibility of "Brexit unwind" where a Labour MP was displaced by a Tory with a lot of habitual Labour voters going for the Tories or Lib Dems for Brexit reasons. Basically a good many voters giving an MP they rather liked a consolation prize after voting them out.. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 14, 2020 12:13:27 GMT
Ex MPs often do very well when they run for local council elections. I suppose they have much higher name recognition than other candidates, particularly when it’s only 9 weeks since she was an MP. And by all accounts she was quite a popular MP who was widely not expected to lose her seat, but got done by the national pro-Brexit/anti-Corbyn wave. There may have been a bit of buyer's remorse in this result? I'm fairly certain this is her base, as she used to be an accountant over in Chapel. But the earlier-mentioned demographics will be playing a part. bjornhattan is spot on. This does not bode well for the Tories. Labour are clearly on the rise here, already stronger than ever in New Mills and the like, and Buxton is probably always in play. The only bit they can be sure of now is the Hope Valley. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 14, 2020 12:22:09 GMT
And by all accounts she was quite a popular MP who was widely not expected to lose her seat, but got done by the national pro-Brexit/anti-Corbyn wave. There may have been a bit of buyer's remorse in this result? I'm fairly certain this is her base, as she used to be an accountant over in Chapel. But the earlier-mentioned demographics will be playing a part. bjornhattan is spot on. This does not bode well for the Tories. Labour are clearly on the rise here, already stronger than ever in New Mills and the like, and Buxton is probably always in play. The only bit they can be sure of now is the Hope Valley. Even there, the Greens were able to secure a narrow win in the recent elections, so the local Conservatives definitely can't rest on their laurels out there either! The one hope they might have is if there are a lot of left-leaning populist voters in parts of Glossop or Hadfield (if the latter is at all like Royston Vasey, which it inspired, it probably won't be trending Labour). There's also a few other bright spots, such as Limestone Peak, where (if I remember right) the demographics are about the most pro-Leave in the country, let alone the borough! |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 12:25:17 GMT
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Post by northbriton on Feb 14, 2020 13:01:29 GMT
Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December I seem to recall that Andrew R T Davies, the former Welsh Conservative leader in the Assembly, had a very good result in a council by-election shortly after he stepped down as Leader. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2020 13:04:18 GMT
I'm fairly certain this is her base, as she used to be an accountant over in Chapel. But the earlier-mentioned demographics will be playing a part. bjornhattan is spot on. This does not bode well for the Tories. Labour are clearly on the rise here, already stronger than ever in New Mills and the like, and Buxton is probably always in play. The only bit they can be sure of now is the Hope Valley. Even there, the Greens were able to secure a narrow win in the recent elections, so the local Conservatives definitely can't rest on their laurels out there either! The one hope they might have is if there are a lot of left-leaning populist voters in parts of Glossop or Hadfield (if the latter is at all like Royston Vasey, which it inspired, it probably won't be trending Labour). There's also a few other bright spots, such as Limestone Peak, where (if I remember right) the demographics are about the most pro-Leave in the country, let alone the borough! It was interesting to read on andrewteale's preview that the greater part of Whaley Bridge, West of the Goyt, had originally been in Cheshire. I knew of course that Tintwhistle was also prior to the reorganisation of the 1970s. If those areas were removed one way or another (Whaley Bridge to East Cheshire, Tintwhistle to Tameside) along with Gamesley/Hadfield (indeed perhaps all of the Glossop area) also to Tameside, then this constituency would be forced South to include Bakewell and surrounding areas which would transform the electoral situation |
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Post by robert1 on Feb 14, 2020 13:04:37 GMT
Fighting a heavy cold today so may have missed it but, don't think anyone has referred (if they have apologies) to the Tory candidate's home address. The clue is surely in Andrew's previews. He was formerly Cllr for Hope Valley. He has a Sheffield post code!
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 13:06:54 GMT
Fighting a heavy cold today so may have missed it but, don't think anyone has referred (if they have apologies) to the Tory candidate's home address. The clue is surely in Andrew's previews. He was formerly Cllr for Hope Valley. He has a Sheffield post code! It was defitnely a factor in me not predicting a Conservative win! |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 14, 2020 13:09:26 GMT
Are Yoxall trying to compete with Iowa for this month's slowest election results? You'd have hoped they'd have something by now.
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 14, 2020 13:11:54 GMT
Are Yoxall trying to compete with Iowa for this month's slowest election results? You'd have hoped they'd have something by now. The vote weighing scales may have broken. |
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Post by phil156 on Feb 14, 2020 13:29:30 GMT
Knowing what they did in December maybe not counting till Tuesday in Staffordshire
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 14:14:23 GMT
Yoxall
Laura Beech- Conservative 431
Michael Baker- Labour 118
turnout 24.3%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 14, 2020 14:27:12 GMT
THANET Cliffsend and Pegwell
Marc Lee Rattigan (The Conservative Party Candidate) 516
Charlotte Louise Barton (Green Party) 290
David Green (Labour Party) 109
Grahame George Birchall (Independent) 101
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Feb 14, 2020 14:28:48 GMT
Yoxall Laura Beech- Conservative 431 Michael Baker- Labour 118 turnout 24.3% That's Con 78.5% (-9.0) Lab 21.5% (+9.0) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 14, 2020 14:30:22 GMT
Which one of the .5s is rounded up and which is rounded down? This makes a big difference between bjornhattan and me. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 14:33:09 GMT
Which one of the .5s is rounded up and which is rounded down? This makes a big difference between bjornhattan and me. It’s 78.51% and 21.49%! |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 14, 2020 14:37:20 GMT
Which one of the .5s is rounded up and which is rounded down? This makes a big difference between bjornhattan and me. It’s 78.51% and 21.49%! Curse the tenth of a Yoxall voter which stopped it being 78.49 and 21.51! |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 14, 2020 15:38:04 GMT
Even there, the Greens were able to secure a narrow win in the recent elections, so the local Conservatives definitely can't rest on their laurels out there either! The one hope they might have is if there are a lot of left-leaning populist voters in parts of Glossop or Hadfield (if the latter is at all like Royston Vasey, which it inspired, it probably won't be trending Labour). There's also a few other bright spots, such as Limestone Peak, where (if I remember right) the demographics are about the most pro-Leave in the country, let alone the borough! It was interesting to read on andrewteale's preview that the greater part of Whaley Bridge, West of the Goyt, had originally been in Cheshire. I knew of course that Tintwhistle was also prior to the reorganisation of the 1970s. If those areas were removed one way or another (Whaley Bridge to East Cheshire, Tintwhistle to Tameside) along with Gamesley/Hadfield (indeed perhaps all of the Glossop area) also to Tameside, then this constituency would be forced South to include Bakewell and surrounding areas which would transform the electoral situation Yes, my dad was born in Whaley Bridge two years after it was united in one county (though the house he was born in was already in Derbyshire). There's quite a lot of election counterfactuals based on county and old county borough boundaries if they hadn't been altered pre '73 (the latter particularly the case where county boroughs with '73 boundaries became Met Boroughs or second tier boroughs which later became unitaries). |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 14, 2020 17:40:03 GMT
Derbyshire, Whaley Bridge - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Labour | 1,851 | 50.4% | +22.8% | +23.5% | Conservative | 1,048 | 28.5% | -6.1% | +0.6% | Liberal Democrat | 721 | 19.6% | -14.0% | -12.0% | No Description | 52 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -4.1% |
| UKIP |
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| -13.5% | Total votes | 3,672 |
| 96% | 117% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 14½% since 2017 and. less meaningful, 11½% since 2013 Council now 36 Conservative, 25 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat East Staffordshire, Yoxall - Conservative hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 B | since 2011 | Conservative | 431 | 78.5% | -9.0% | unopposed | -5.8% | -0.8% | Labour | 118 | 21.5% | +9.0% |
| +5.8% | +0.8% | Total votes | 539 |
| 68% |
| 97% | 50% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 9% since 2019, 5¾% since 2011 by-election and ¾% since 2011 Council now 25 Conservative, 9 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Vacant Hertsmere, Borehamwood Kenilworth - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 776 | 49.0% | +3.5% | +2.4% | Labour | 655 | 41.3% | -13.2% | -12.1% | Liberal Democrat | 104 | 6.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 50 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,585 |
| 88% | 97% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 8¼% / 7¼% since 2019 Council now 30 Conservative, 6 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat Huntingdonshire, St Ives East - Conservative hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | Conservative
| 558 | 46.5% | +0.7% | +0.9% | Independent | 429 | 35.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 109 | 9.1% | -15.7% | -15.7% | Labour | 103 | 8.6% | -20.8% | -20.9% | Total votes | 1,199 |
| 72% | 72% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 30 Conservative, 10 Huntingdon Independent, 7 Liberal Democrat, 4 Labour, 1 Independent Thanet, Cliffsend & Pegwell - Conservative hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 516 | 50.8% | +14.1% | +14.6% | +11.4% | +13.0% | Green | 290 | 28.5% | +10.5% | +10.0% | +21.6% | +21.2% | Labour | 109 | 10.7% | -4.4% | -3.6% | -6.2% | -5.7% | Independent | 101 | 9.9% | -5.8% | -6.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | For Britain |
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| -14.4% | -14.8% |
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| -33.8% | -35.3% | Reality |
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| -2.9% | -3.1% | Total votes | 1,016 |
| 57% | 59% | 36% | 38% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Green to Conservative 1¾% / 2¼% since 2019 and Labour to Conservative 9¼% / 9% since 2019 Council now 25 Conservative, 19 Labour, 7 Thanet Independent, 3 Green, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant Waverley, Milford - Independent hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average2 | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Independent Gale | 452 | 50.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 328 | 36.7% | +17.3% | +18.2% | -15.2% | -9.5% | Independent Egan | 113 | 12.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| -35.2% | -35.6% |
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| -34.3% | -34.7% | -29.2% | -32.7% | UKIP |
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| -11.1% | -11.2% | -18.8% | -21.1% | Total votes | 893 |
| 49% | 49% | 32% | 36% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 22 Conservative, 15 Fareham Residents, 14 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Independent
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