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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 14, 2020 0:23:01 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some!
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Post by phil156 on Feb 14, 2020 0:28:26 GMT
Well Thanet and east Staffordshire must be counting in morning !!!
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 14, 2020 0:32:45 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some! One wonders how they did it. The candidate quality was suggested as an explanation, and that may be so, but she also stood in 2017 and came 3rd? The turnout was high for a February by-election and it was said there a very high postal vote- was this a particularly well organised postal vote campaign? |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 14, 2020 0:37:39 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some! One wonders how they did it. The candidate quality was suggested as an explanation, and that may be so, but she also stood in 2017 and came 3rd? The turnout was high for a February by-election and it was said there a very high postal vote- was this a particularly well organised postal vote campaign? Maybe the fact they’re now in opposition has allowed them to go on the attack criticising the local Tory administration’s policies rather than having to defend their own? Re Yoxall, it’s a change if they are counting on a Friday, back in the 80’s-00’s when my friend used to be either Labour candidate or Agent they counted in the Church Hall (conveniently next door to a pub) on the Thursday night. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 14, 2020 0:39:25 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some! One wonders how they did it. The candidate quality was suggested as an explanation, and that may be so, but she also stood in 2017 and came 3rd? The turnout was high for a February by-election and it was said there a very high postal vote- was this a particularly well organised postal vote campaign? Two other factors which might play a role, though neither seems that big: Firstly, High Peak is trending towards Labour, and if some of that is down to demographic change, areas like Whaley Bridge will be at the epicentre of that. This is an area which is close to Manchester, but is much more pleasant (by all accounts) than Glossop, so could be attracting a lot of younger professionals out. Could they be retaining their Labour preferences as they leave the city behind? Perhaps, but any such change shouldn't be this rapid. Secondly, might the dam have been an issue? That seems like just about the most pressing local concern imaginable, but I can't see it being particularly fruitful ground to campaign on at a local election. Were there other development concerns, perhaps? |
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Post by Philip Davies on Feb 14, 2020 0:45:53 GMT
Labour appear to be getting stronger in the Blackbrook part of the Whaley Bridge division over recent elections. It is a misnamed ward as the hamlet of Blackbrook is in Chapel East. Chinley and Combs or Eccles Pike would be better names for the ward.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Feb 14, 2020 1:22:29 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some! One wonders how they did it. The candidate quality was suggested as an explanation, and that may be so, but she also stood in 2017 and came 3rd? The turnout was high for a February by-election and it was said there a very high postal vote- was this a particularly well organised postal vote campaign? Well, her quality changed since 2017. There is a difference between USDAW employee and former MP. |
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Post by matureleft on Feb 14, 2020 6:42:59 GMT
Bring back David Bookbinder. I’d rather not! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 14, 2020 7:45:49 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some! One wonders how they did it. The candidate quality was suggested as an explanation, and that may be so, but she also stood in 2017 and came 3rd? The turnout was high for a February by-election and it was said there a very high postal vote- was this a particularly well organised postal vote campaign? As bjorn alluded to earlier I think last summers flooding must come into it, but more than he thinks. The Conservatives nationally didn't respond to that well and I think they must have been punished more than anyone expected. 👽 |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 7:56:34 GMT
Ex MPs often do very well when they run for local council elections. I suppose they have much higher name recognition than other candidates, particularly when it’s only 9 weeks since she was an MP.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2020 8:04:16 GMT
Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 14, 2020 8:09:37 GMT
Ex MPs often do very well when they run for local council elections. I suppose they have much higher name recognition than other candidates, particularly when it’s only 9 weeks since she was an MP. Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December One learns new things everyday, didn't realise that it made such a profound difference. 👽 |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 8:14:48 GMT
Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December Yes, it would have been interesting who would have won, had Labour had a different candidate. I went for a Lib Dem win in the prediction comp on the basis that their candidate was an ex councillor for the division and that Ruth George had one or two things she had to apologise before just before the GE- a big prediction error in hindsight, |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2020 8:29:28 GMT
andrewteale. Does Edwina Currie live in Whaley Bridge itself? For some reason I thought she lived in Tideswell.
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Feb 14, 2020 9:28:08 GMT
Labour seem to have successfully bridged the gap up to first and then some! One wonders how they did it. The candidate quality was suggested as an explanation, and that may be so, but she also stood in 2017 and came 3rd? The turnout was high for a February by-election and it was said there a very high postal vote- was this a particularly well organised postal vote campaign? Simplest explanation - some LibDem voters supported a strong Labour candidate to keep Cons out? |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 14, 2020 10:41:12 GMT
Bring back David Bookbinder. No, let's not. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2020 11:22:57 GMT
Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December There was also John Pugh smashing a Southport byelection in late 2017 (which of course told us little about how the subsequent GE there would go) |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 14, 2020 11:29:56 GMT
Still no rush to count either Yoxall or Cliffsend? Must be that both are having to have recounts?  |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 14, 2020 11:39:18 GMT
Yes this is a no-brainer surely. I seem to recall Adrian Sanders in Torbay and Charlotte Atkins in Leek (amongst others) enjoying similarly good results in local by-elections in their (former) constituencies. Also of course, the 2017 county council elections were hardly a stunning success for Labour, yet they weren't that far from winning this division even then. I'd guess at the very least Labour would have been close to carrying the division in December There was also John Pugh smashing a Southport byelection in late 2017 (which of course told us little about how the subsequent GE there would go) Charlotte’s wasn’t a massive upset, it was triggered by the death of a local “personality”, a market trader, part of one of the Povey’s Oatcakes family (some will argue they’re the best, they’re not), who had successfully campaigned as an Independent in support of “the metric martyrs” and then gravitated to UKIP. Once he was off the scene the seat resorted to its more traditional Labour voting pattern. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2020 11:43:38 GMT
Ex MPs often do very well when they run for local council elections. I suppose they have much higher name recognition than other candidates, particularly when it’s only 9 weeks since she was an MP. And by all accounts she was quite a popular MP who was widely not expected to lose her seat, but got done by the national pro-Brexit/anti-Corbyn wave. There may have been a bit of buyer's remorse in this result? |
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