Labour led Brexit

[pepperminttea]

I've long been thinking about what a 'Lexit' led by the old 'Bennite' wing of the Labour Party would look like and how it could've won a referendum. 

Imagine a timeline where the anti-Europe shift amongst a large chunk of the Conservative Party didn't happen whilst at the same time the Labour Party remained deeply divided over the issue. In order for this to happen the political union of Europe wouldn't have happened (or at least to nowhere near the same extent) i.e. no Maastrict Treaty, no Lisbon Treaty, European Parliament with very limited powers etc. and it remains primarily a powerful trading block (a 'neoliberal' trading block in the eyes of much of the left). In this timeline free (or more likely free-ish) movement of labour is still a thing though it is strictly enforced as such i.e. those out of work (in particular those without another form of income) are regularly sent back back to their country of origin. The ex-Eastern block countries still joined though Britain enforced breaks on movement from these countries (i.e. immigration from Europe whilst still an issue in places is nowhere near as high up the public's priorities as it was in 2016). 

Labour is in government led by a pro-membership leader, for example David Miliband, in coalition with the also pro-membership Liberal Democrats. Miliband is keen to put Labour's past internal civil wars over Britain's membership of the European market to rest. However in the aftermath of a global financial crash discontent in the electorate is high and a left wing anti-Europe party led by a highly charismatic but extremely controversial figure (say for example George Galloway) begins to gain support winning stunning victories in Labour's heartlands in local elections. Panic spreads in Labour circles that losing votes to Galloway's party will allow the Tories to sneak back into Downing Street on a low vote share. Thus Miliband, despite his pro-Europe convictions, caves to the demands of the 'bastards' in his party such as Corbyn and McDonnell and promises a referendum on Britain's membership of the European market should Labour win the election outright which, against all predictions, they do.

As in our timeline the Remain campaign is inept and divided struggling to get away from the stereotype of the European single market only benefiting the smug, upper middle class, tweed wearing, golf club going Surrey elite. The Leave campaign led by Galloway, McDonnell, Corbyn plus a few token figures from the right such as Francois runs a targeted campaign aimed at key groups of voters: the post industrial working class by blaming membership of the European market for the collapse of British manufacturing as well as accusing market rules against nationalisation and government intervention in the economy for worsening the effects of the global economic crash, ethnic minorities in the large cities by pointing out the unfairness in that the market preferences predominantly white Europeans over people from their home countries, and the dispossessed young by claiming the neoliberal-market has 'stolen' their future and that the moneyed boomers cared more about their villa in Spain than their future prospects. Against all the odds and all the predictions of the (largely Remain) media Leave wins 52-48.

What would the map look like in this time line? How would it differ to our timeline? Remain would obviously do far, far better in middle class generally Conservative voting areas that threw Cameron under the bus (so to speak) as well as in rural, agricultural areas. Leave would do far better with ethnic minority voters as well as with young people (especially more radical 'alternative' types), Scotland also would probably be for Leave. I suspect the urban, white, liberal, economically fairly centrist Guardianista crowd would still be Remain though rather less emphatically in this timeline.

This is my first attempt at a map  done rather quickly with no science to it (I've gone with roughly the same number of constituencies voting Leave as did in reality, assuming Remain would be more concentrated, albeit in different places) as you can see there's an extremely strong regional divide though. Would be very interested to hear other people's opinions  . 



Credits to Andrew Leitch for the constituency map, the easiest one to fill in that I've found.

Northern Ireland (not included on the map) I imagine would be much the same except with middle class unionist areas (e.g. North Down) significantly better for Remain with working class nationalist areas better for Leave. 

[bjornhattan]

Jan 30, 2020 18:10:58 GMT pepperminttea said:

I've long been thinking about what a 'Lexit' led by the old 'Bennite' wing of the Labour Party would look like and how it could've won a referendum. 

Imagine a timeline where the anti-Europe shift amongst a large chunk of the Conservative Party didn't happen whilst at the same time the Labour Party remained deeply divided over the issue. In order for this to happen the political union of Europe wouldn't have happened (or at least to nowhere near the same extent) i.e. no Maastrict Treaty, no Lisbon Treaty, no European Parliament etc. and it remains primarily a powerful trading block (a 'neoliberal' trading block in the eyes of much of the left). In this timeline free (or more likely free-ish) movement of labour is still a thing though it is strictly enforced as such i.e. those out of work (in particular those without another form of income) are regularly sent back back to their country of origin. The ex-Eastern block countries still joined though Britain enforced breaks on movement from these countries (i.e. immigration from Europe whilst still an issue in places is nowhere near as high up the public's priorities as it was in 2016). 

Labour is in government led by a pro-membership leader, for example David Miliband, in coalition with the also pro-membership Liberal Democrats. Miliband is keen to put Labour's past internal civil wars over Britain's membership of the European market to rest. However in the aftermath of a global financial crash discontent in the electorate is high and a left wing anti-Europe party led by a highly charismatic but extremely controversial figure (say for example George Galloway) begins to gain support winning stunning victories in Labour's heartlands in local elections. Panic spreads in Labour circles that losing votes to Galloway's party will allow the Tories to sneak back into Downing Street on a low vote share. Thus Miliband, despite his pro-Europe convictions, caves to the demands of the 'bastards' in his party such as Corbyn and McDonnell and promises a referendum on Britain's membership of the European market should Labour win the election outright which, against all predictions, they do.

As in our timeline the Remain campaign is inept and divided struggling to get away from the stereotype of the European single market only benefiting the smug, upper middle class, tweed wearing, golf club going Surrey elite. The Leave campaign led by Galloway, McDonnell, Corbyn plus a few token figures from the right such as Francois runs a targeted campaign aimed at key groups of voters: the post industrial working class by blaming membership of the European market for the collapse of British manufacturing as well as accusing market rules against nationalisation and government intervention in the economy for worsening the effects of the global economic crash, ethnic minorities in the large cities by pointing out the unfairness in that the market preferences predominantly white Europeans over people from their home countries, and the dispossessed young by claiming the neoliberal-market has 'stolen' their future and that the moneyed boomers cared more about their villa in Spain than their future prospects. Against all the odds and all the predictions of the (largely Remain) media Leave wins 52-48.

What would the map look like in this time line? How would it differ to our timeline? Remain would obviously do far, far better in middle class generally Conservative voting areas that threw Cameron under the bus (so to speak) as well as in rural, agricultural areas. Leave would do far better with ethnic minority voters as well as with young people (especially more radical 'alternative' types), Scotland also would probably be for Leave. I suspect the urban, white, liberal, economically fairly centrist Guardianista crowd would still be Remain though rather less emphatically in this timeline.

This is my first attempt at a map  done rather quickly with no science to it (I've gone with roughly the same number of constituencies voting Leave as did in reality, assuming Remain would be more concentrated, albeit in different places) as you can see there's an extremely strong regional divide though. Would be very interested to hear other people's opinions  . 



<img src="" alt="" style="max-width:100%;">Credits to Andrew Leitch for the constituency map, the easiest one to fill in that I've found.

Northern Ireland (not included on the map) I imagine would be much the same except with middle class unionist areas (e.g. North Down) significantly better for Remain with working class nationalist areas better for Leave. 

Looking at your map (which is good); I think you've underestimated the impact of working class or lower middle class Tories, who'd likely break for leave at a similar rate or maybe even a little higher in your scenario. Seats like Penrith, Richmond, and a lot of south western seats would have gone Leave - in some cases significantly more so. A town like Trowbridge, which is Conservative in spite of being a classic working class anti-globalisation town (and probably would be Labour were it northern), would surely be way more Leave in this scenario.

[pepperminttea]

Jan 30, 2020 18:23:15 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 30, 2020 18:10:58 GMT pepperminttea said:

I've long been thinking about what a 'Lexit' led by the old 'Bennite' wing of the Labour Party would look like and how it could've won a referendum. 

Imagine a timeline where the anti-Europe shift amongst a large chunk of the Conservative Party didn't happen whilst at the same time the Labour Party remained deeply divided over the issue. In order for this to happen the political union of Europe wouldn't have happened (or at least to nowhere near the same extent) i.e. no Maastrict Treaty, no Lisbon Treaty, no European Parliament etc. and it remains primarily a powerful trading block (a 'neoliberal' trading block in the eyes of much of the left). In this timeline free (or more likely free-ish) movement of labour is still a thing though it is strictly enforced as such i.e. those out of work (in particular those without another form of income) are regularly sent back back to their country of origin. The ex-Eastern block countries still joined though Britain enforced breaks on movement from these countries (i.e. immigration from Europe whilst still an issue in places is nowhere near as high up the public's priorities as it was in 2016). 

Labour is in government led by a pro-membership leader, for example David Miliband, in coalition with the also pro-membership Liberal Democrats. Miliband is keen to put Labour's past internal civil wars over Britain's membership of the European market to rest. However in the aftermath of a global financial crash discontent in the electorate is high and a left wing anti-Europe party led by a highly charismatic but extremely controversial figure (say for example George Galloway) begins to gain support winning stunning victories in Labour's heartlands in local elections. Panic spreads in Labour circles that losing votes to Galloway's party will allow the Tories to sneak back into Downing Street on a low vote share. Thus Miliband, despite his pro-Europe convictions, caves to the demands of the 'bastards' in his party such as Corbyn and McDonnell and promises a referendum on Britain's membership of the European market should Labour win the election outright which, against all predictions, they do.

As in our timeline the Remain campaign is inept and divided struggling to get away from the stereotype of the European single market only benefiting the smug, upper middle class, tweed wearing, golf club going Surrey elite. The Leave campaign led by Galloway, McDonnell, Corbyn plus a few token figures from the right such as Francois runs a targeted campaign aimed at key groups of voters: the post industrial working class by blaming membership of the European market for the collapse of British manufacturing as well as accusing market rules against nationalisation and government intervention in the economy for worsening the effects of the global economic crash, ethnic minorities in the large cities by pointing out the unfairness in that the market preferences predominantly white Europeans over people from their home countries, and the dispossessed young by claiming the neoliberal-market has 'stolen' their future and that the moneyed boomers cared more about their villa in Spain than their future prospects. Against all the odds and all the predictions of the (largely Remain) media Leave wins 52-48.

What would the map look like in this time line? How would it differ to our timeline? Remain would obviously do far, far better in middle class generally Conservative voting areas that threw Cameron under the bus (so to speak) as well as in rural, agricultural areas. Leave would do far better with ethnic minority voters as well as with young people (especially more radical 'alternative' types), Scotland also would probably be for Leave. I suspect the urban, white, liberal, economically fairly centrist Guardianista crowd would still be Remain though rather less emphatically in this timeline.

This is my first attempt at a map  done rather quickly with no science to it (I've gone with roughly the same number of constituencies voting Leave as did in reality, assuming Remain would be more concentrated, albeit in different places) as you can see there's an extremely strong regional divide though. Would be very interested to hear other people's opinions  . 



<img src="" alt="" style="max-width:100%;">Credits to Andrew Leitch for the constituency map, the easiest one to fill in that I've found.

Northern Ireland (not included on the map) I imagine would be much the same except with middle class unionist areas (e.g. North Down) significantly better for Remain with working class nationalist areas better for Leave. 

Looking at your map (which is good); I think you've underestimated the impact of working class or lower middle class Tories, who'd likely break for leave at a similar rate or maybe even a little higher in your scenario. Seats like Penrith, Richmond, and a lot of south western seats would have gone Leave - in some cases significantly more so. A town like Trowbridge, which is Conservative in spite of being a classic working class anti-globalisation town (and probably would be Labour were it northern), would surely be way more Leave in this scenario.

I was aiming for a map that would be roughly 52-48 in favour of Leave. Wiltshire South West for example I did have as Leave in my original draft but then I realised the map was more like 58-42 Leave so I had to flip a lot of constituencies to Remain including Wiltshire South West (my assumption being that Warminster, Westbury and the rural areas would be very strong for Remain outvoting Trowbridge).

A Labour led Brexit referendum of the type I describe would still do very well in the post industrial north (probably even better in our timeline), significantly better in Wales, London and other ethnic minority heavy places as well as miles better in Scotland and very left wing cities like Bristol and Brighton. Thus in order to get back to 52-48 Remain would have to do much better in other places and the rural south west seemed to me to be the most probable place after the Home Counties. 

[bjornhattan]

Jan 30, 2020 21:42:28 GMT pepperminttea said:

Jan 30, 2020 18:23:15 GMT bjornhattan said:

Looking at your map (which is good); I think you've underestimated the impact of working class or lower middle class Tories, who'd likely break for leave at a similar rate or maybe even a little higher in your scenario. Seats like Penrith, Richmond, and a lot of south western seats would have gone Leave - in some cases significantly more so. A town like Trowbridge, which is Conservative in spite of being a classic working class anti-globalisation town (and probably would be Labour were it northern), would surely be way more Leave in this scenario.

I was aiming for a map that would be roughly 52-48 in favour of Leave. Wiltshire South West for example I did have as Leave in my original draft but then I realised the map was more like 58-42 Leave so I had to flip a lot of constituencies to Remain including Wiltshire South West (my assumption being that Warminster, Westbury and the rural areas would be very strong for Remain outvoting Trowbridge).

A Labour led Brexit referendum of the type I describe would still do very well in the post industrial north (probably even better in our timeline), significantly better in Wales, London and other ethnic minority heavy places as well as miles better in Scotland and very left wing cities like Bristol and Brighton. Thus in order to get back to 52-48 Remain would have to do much better in other places and the rural south west seemed to me to be the most probable place after the Home Counties. 

The issue is, a lot of areas in the South West would be Labour were it a Conservative vs Labour dogfight, and are very much working class Eurosceptic. Another good example is Yeovil. I don't think the swing in those sort of areas would be that massive, even if rural areas were as pro-Remain as university towns in our referendum.

[mondialito]

A question for this timeline is if PM Miliband resigns, who replaces him? I can't imagine there being someone of the equivalent of Boris Johnson among Labour ranks - semi-detached from the Leadership, with an almost celebrity status, whose support for one side over the other had major influence over the result - who was the natural next leader in a post-Referendum contest. If Eurosceptism is a mainstream Labour opinion in this timeline, then a pro-Brexit Cabinet Minister could well take the reins, perhaps someone who in real life was against a second referendum like Caroline Flint.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jan 31, 2020 23:53:56 GMT mondialito said:

A question for this timeline is if PM Miliband resigns, who replaces him? I can't imagine there being someone of the equivalent of Boris Johnson among Labour ranks - semi-detached from the Leadership, with an almost celebrity status, whose support for one side over the other had major influence over the result - who was the natural next leader in a post-Referendum contest. If Eurosceptism is a mainstream Labour opinion in this timeline, then a pro-Brexit Cabinet Minister could well take the reins, perhaps someone who in real life was against a second referendum like Caroline Flint.

Interesting and very different; you might get a Theresa May fill in type of Labour leader initially, with a Labour ERG group first, don't know who that would have been.

👽

[jamesg]

This is a well thought out idea. Plausible reasons and a good sequence of events to it too!
It would certainly be something big though to keep the EU as only a trading bloc, not with social matters as a centrepiece of what the organisation is all about. Without the latter, this idea really works because Labour opposition to the EU (or the EEC / EC as it was then) only really changed if I recall correctly when in 1988 Delors came to the Trades Union Congress and reminded/informed Labour that the EU had that as its core and this changed many minds on the EU for Labour.

[johnloony]

A variation on an alternative history would be: what if a referendum had been held in c.1971 on whether to join (rather than the horse-has-already-bolted referendum in 1975)?