Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 20, 2020 11:06:28 GMT
Two this week, following the resignation of the same councillor, and a first ever by-election in the new West Suffolk DC:
SUFFOLK CC; Newmarket and Red Lodge (Con resigned)
Candidates:
APPLEBY, Andrew Jeffery (West Suffolk Independents)
CHIPULINA, Theresa Louise (Labour)
DRUMMOND, Andy (Conservative)
EDGE, Jonny (Liberal Democrat)
HAYLOCK, Alice (Green)
2017: Con 1203; Lab 373; UKIP 322; WSI 273; LD 213
Feb 16by: Con 644; UKIP 494; Lab 284; WSI 123; LD 76
2013: Con 968; UKIP 615; Lab 450; LD 136
2009: Con 1072; LD 588; UKIP 397; Lab 202
2005: Con 1582; LD 932; Lab 883; UKIP 220
Andrew Appleby was the West Suffolk Independent (WSI) candidate in 2016 and 2017 and the Lib Dem in 2009. Andrew Drummond is currently a councillor for Newmarket West ward on West Suffolk DC.
Current Council: Con 50; Lab 11; LD 5; Ind 4; Grn 3; WSI 1; 1 vacancy
WEST SUFFOLK DC; Newmarket North (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Ruth (West Suffolk Independents)
CHIPULINA, Theresa Louise (Labour)
EDGE, Jonny (Liberal Democrats)
HAYLOCK, Alice (Green)
SOONS, Karen (Conservative)
STENNETT, Frank (Independent)
2019: WSI 404, 289; Con 331, 220; Lab 195, 182
Ruth Allen was the unsuccessful WSI candidate last year. Karen Soons is county councillor for Thingoe South division on Suffolk CC.
Current Council: Con 37; INd 13; WSI 7; Lab 5; Grn 1; 1 vacancy (All Inds, WSI and the Green form the Independent Group on the council).
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jan 25, 2020 9:28:17 GMT
Pity Frank Stennett's uncle, Morny, isn't standing. That'd be all over the papers ....
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 30, 2020 11:22:03 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 30, 2020 23:02:09 GMT
Can anyone confirm they are counting these tonight? If they are I would assume they will start with the district ward firstas that will be relatively close at hand and the county division will follow becausesome of thos bits are a good bit further away?Anyone here with good Suffolk knowledge?
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 30, 2020 23:08:02 GMT
Can anyone confirm they are counting these tonight? If they are I would assume they will start with the district ward firstas that will be relatively close at hand and the county division will follow becausesome of thos bits are a good bit further away?Anyone here with good Suffolk knowledge? There’s also been a Local Planning Referendum in the Newmarket North part of the Division, so that’s three ballot papers to at least separate. UPDATE: West Suffolk Council have Tweeted the result of a Parish Council election so it does appear that they are counting tonight. |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jan 31, 2020 0:05:00 GMT
CON HOLD both wards.
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jan 31, 2020 0:23:48 GMT
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jan 31, 2020 0:24:28 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 31, 2020 0:59:43 GMT
Suffolk, Newmarket & Red Lodge - Conservative hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 | since 2016B | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Conservative | 893 | 50.3% | -0.2% | +10.5% | +5.6% | +2.8% | Liberal Democrat | 315 | 17.7% | +8.8% | +13.0% | +11.5% | -8.3% | West Suffolk Independent | 248 | 14.0% | +2.5% | +6.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 198 | 11.1% | -4.5% | -6.4% | -9.6% | +2.2% | Green | 123 | 6.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -13.5% | -30.5% | -28.4% | -17.6% | Total votes | 1,777 |
| 75% | 110% | 82% | 78% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4½% since 2017, 1¼% since 2016 by-election and 3% since 2013 - but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 5½% since 2009 Council now 51 Conservative, 11 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 3 Green, 1 West Suffolk Independent West Suffolk, Newmarket North - Conservative hold | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | Conservative | 309 | 42.4% | +6.9% | +8.5% | Liberal Democrat | 130 | 17.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | West Suffolk Independent | 118 | 16.2% | -27.2% | -26.5% | Labour | 73 | 10.0% | -10.9% | -13.2% | Independent | 54 | 7.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 44 | 6.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 728 |
| 78% | 88% |
Swing, if meaningful, West Suffolk Independent to Conservative 17% / 17½% since 2019 Council now 38 Conservative, 13 Independent, 7 West Suffolk Independent, 5 Labour, 1 Green
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Post by listener on Jan 31, 2020 2:57:54 GMT
So the Labour vote is down in all seven January by-elections.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 31, 2020 8:40:58 GMT
So the Labour vote is down in all seven January by-elections. Indeed. To summarise: Brislington East 39.7% (-1.1) Alperton 30.5% (-25.6) Barnhill 46.5% (-17.3) Wembley Central 54.5% (-11.8) D & G 6.3 % (-0.6) Newmarket &RL 11,1% (--4.5) Newmarket N 10.0% (-10.9) (using the top vote share where relevant) So quite a wide range given only 7 results , between urban and rural, England and Scotland, areas of traditional strength and areas of weakness. Down everywhere. |
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Post by matureleft on Jan 31, 2020 11:31:00 GMT
So the Labour vote is down in all seven January by-elections. Indeed. To summarise: Brislington East 39.7% (-1.1) Alperton 30.5% (-25.6) Barnhill 46.5% (-17.3) Wembley Central 54.5% (-11.8) D & G 6.3 % (-0.6) Newmarket &RL 11,1% (--4.5) Newmarket N 10.0% (-10.9) (using the top vote share where relevant) So quite a wide range given only 7 results , between urban and rural, England and Scotland, areas of traditional strength and areas of weakness. Down everywhere. Unsurprising. The General Election result will have deflated Labour turnout and having a long, initially internally-focused leadership election won't help. When the contest moves to the actual ballot (roll on that day!) the latter effect may turn positive as candidates will have to appeal to a wider electorate. That would be particularly true if the broadcast media run some debates.
Of course the measurement of decline in these results will vary not just for the reasons you give but against when the seats were last fought. And, as always, there are local factors (the Alperton one springs to mind).
None of this is to say that further realignment couldn't be going on. It's just that there are other reasonable explanations!
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 31, 2020 11:52:25 GMT
Indeed. To summarise: Brislington East 39.7% (-1.1) Alperton 30.5% (-25.6) Barnhill 46.5% (-17.3) Wembley Central 54.5% (-11.8) D & G 6.3 % (-0.6) Newmarket &RL 11,1% (--4.5) Newmarket N 10.0% (-10.9) (using the top vote share where relevant) So quite a wide range given only 7 results , between urban and rural, England and Scotland, areas of traditional strength and areas of weakness. Down everywhere. Unsurprising. The General Election result will have deflated Labour turnout and having a long, initially internally-focused leadership election won't help. When the contest moves to the actual ballot (roll on that day!) the latter effect may turn positive as candidates will have to appeal to a wider electorate. That would be particularly true if the broadcast media run some debates.
Of course the measurement of decline in these results will vary not just for the reasons you give but against when the seats were last fought. And, as always, there are local factors (the Alperton one springs to mind).
None of this is to say that further realignment couldn't be going on. It's just that there are other reasonable explanations!
Quite. Actually the first of these (Brislington) was widely seen as quite a good result for Labour in the circumstances. Nevertheless, the longer this goes on the more you have to stretch the"other reasonable explanations". It might be said that a lot of your explanations/excuses also could apply to the Lib Dems- post general election deflation, leadership election, etc. The Lib Dem results so far this year are a mixed bag (a couple of poor results where targetting elsewhere, and one no-show in the seven) but the picture in seats where there has been a reasonable targetting effort have been (surprisingly?) good- 1 gain and several substantial improvements. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 31, 2020 12:02:07 GMT
Indeed. To summarise: Brislington East 39.7% (-1.1) Alperton 30.5% (-25.6) Barnhill 46.5% (-17.3) Wembley Central 54.5% (-11.8) D & G 6.3 % (-0.6) Newmarket &RL 11,1% (--4.5) Newmarket N 10.0% (-10.9) (using the top vote share where relevant) So quite a wide range given only 7 results , between urban and rural, England and Scotland, areas of traditional strength and areas of weakness. Down everywhere. Unsurprising. The General Election result will have deflated Labour turnout and having a long, initially internally-focused leadership election won't help. When the contest moves to the actual ballot (roll on that day!) the latter effect may turn positive as candidates will have to appeal to a wider electorate. That would be particularly true if the broadcast media run some debates.
Of course the measurement of decline in these results will vary not just for the reasons you give but against when the seats were last fought. And, as always, there are local factors (the Alperton one springs to mind).
None of this is to say that further realignment couldn't be going on. It's just that there are other reasonable explanations!
Isn't it pretty much in line with results before the GE? Labour have been down in the polls since the 2017 peak and the higher vote in the general election was partly or mainly tactical voting. Getting a new leader might improve things |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 31, 2020 13:37:10 GMT
On this occasion I'm encouraged to see us gain second place in both contests, shunting the localists and Labour to third and fourth respectively. The localists had been doing very well here recently, perhaps they've passed their peak?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2020 17:38:38 GMT
Labour aren't exactly strong in West Suffolk.
The fall in Labour's vote share in Brent should be more concerning due to the upcoming London elections.
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 1, 2020 16:09:03 GMT
On this occasion I'm encouraged to see us gain second place in both contests, shunting the localists and Labour to third and fourth respectively. The localists had been doing very well here recently, perhaps they've passed their peak? Localist groups do seem to have very limited lifespans for the most part, with a few exceptions (e.g. Epsom and Ewell or Heald Green in Stockport). |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 2, 2020 15:12:48 GMT
Last May there was a considerable amount of disgruntlement with the Tories, a popular localist who almost doubled his running mate's vote and probably a lot of split ticket voting. With none of those 3 factors in play, the movement from localist to Tory is hardly surprising. If things fall apart for the Tories nationally that could still reverse before the next elections here, but time will tell...
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