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Post by curiousliberal on Jan 20, 2020 9:45:09 GMT
It's pretty much impossible for Rory to get there. Those MPs were the voters but he was too busy talking to the media. The guy has a great backstory, on paper, but he is a boring wet rag. His colleagues knew that: they worked with him. He actually proposed some fresh policy which should have been interesting, but Brexit was consuming all the political oxygen and he simply couldn't compete in the race to the bottom. He would have lost the leadership election, though if Boris Johnson had pulled a Leadsom, I think Stewart would have gotten a better deal than Johnson's through Parliament prior to any election. If there was an early election at some point afterwards (one was likely before 2022 due to attrition unless the Conservative Party somehow reconciled with all of its defectors) and a deal had passed Parliament but had not yet been implemented (that is, we hadn't exited the EU or at least the transition period), Stewart would have won, probably more comprehensively than Johnson did. Jeremy Hunt's campaign also took me by surprise as far more appealing than I'd anticipated. Certain members of the blue room are rightly suspicious when opposition partisans show admiration for their favourites' rivals, but the fact that he proposed profound reform for social care would have been impressive in itself even if I'd completely disagreed with the content. His debate performance was very strong. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Jan 20, 2020 10:03:57 GMT
Rory Stewart would not of won a majority in December 2019. I imagine he would of put the May WA deal to a referendum, losing more Conservative supporters to the Brexit party and destroying the party. Boris has shown to be far more competent then his rivals would of ever dreamed of. The Conservative party is now united, his a vision and has purpose. The Labour party and Lib Dems are divided, have no vision and healing their wounds from losing the biggest cultural fight in over a generation. He didn't necessarily need to put it to a referendum, given the way the second reading worked out for Boris Johnson's considerably harder Brexit and Stewart's willingness to actually negotiate and compromise as opposed to May's obstinacy. I suspect his final deal might have looked something like the May deal + CU and some workers' rights guarantees which Labour leavers would have wanted. I will agree that if Parliament somehow continued in its obstinacy to block any deal (which would have to be beyond what it had indicated, btw), either a GE or a pre-GE referendum would have happened. I am pretty sure Stewart would have won a pre-Brexit GE if he was able to get most of his own MPs behind him immediately prior to it (and getting halfway to that is practically a prerequisite for becoming leader), though perhaps by less than Johnson. *If* there had been a referendum and his deal had won, then I don't see why you wouldn't have won a 'let's implement it' subsequent GE in the result of further obstinacy (and by a larger margin than Johnson's victory, IMO). *If* there had been a referendum and his deal had lost, then I'll agree there would be a serious opening for the Brexit Party, but not otherwise. The Conservative Party is indeed led by a vision, but it is only their own vision insofar as their vision is that of a strong leader. The vast majority of members are not aware of and did not vote on what is still an incredibly opaque agenda. You should be very pleased with your electoral performance, but there are almost as many uncertainties for Conservatives in a Johnson administration as there are for the rest of us. If I were a backbencher, I would be asking questions. Btw, this is hardly the most important cultural fight in a generation. Even though it got lots of media attention and sparked stupid parliamentary games, there were far more critical fronts on which we've won in the last generation (civil partnerships and equal marriage, shared parental leave, etc) and I can say we won because most of you are now on board with these victories and don't even consider them battles (that is to say - we all won). I sincerely hope Brexit becomes something from which we all win, but expect otherwise. There are also far more important battles which we are losing, e.g. doing more to save refugees, and victories which this government poses a greater threat to than Brexit (e.g. not dabbling in voter suppression measures). |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 20, 2020 10:26:52 GMT
I'm not convinced by the cultural fight stuff either.
Thing is, the population of some of these left behind areas is already skewed towards older people. I saw some stats for Bishop Auckland and Leigh and they were remarkable. Those with get up and go have got up and gone.
So, by resrricting immigration which was the only real cultural issue involved we will soon find that there will be vacancies in the hospitality industry, particularly in London, and those remaining in Ashfield and Grimsby won't be moving down to take those jobs. We know that one off pump-priming us next to useless when it comes to regeneration, and that market forces have no interest in such matters anyway.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 25, 2020 14:28:07 GMT
Rory Stewart would not of won a majority in December 2019. I imagine he would of put the May WA deal to a referendum, losing more Conservative supporters to the Brexit party and destroying the party. Boris has shown to be far more competent then his rivals would of ever dreamed of. The Conservative party is now united, his a vision and has purpose. The Labour party and Lib Dems are divided, have no vision and healing their wounds from losing the biggest cultural fight in over a generation. He didn't necessarily need to put it to a referendum, given the way the second reading worked out for Boris Johnson's considerably harder Brexit and Stewart's willingness to actually negotiate and compromise as opposed to May's obstinacy. I suspect his final deal might have looked something like the May deal + CU and some workers' rights guarantees which Labour leavers would have wanted.Thank goodness he got the derisory result he deserved then. |
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