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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 29, 2019 17:41:32 GMT
Any thoughts?
Would it have been a hung Parliament?
Assume red wall to include NE, NW, Yorks and North Wales.
Staffordshire and Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire were already weakened in 2017.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 29, 2019 17:42:44 GMT
Stupid concept.
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 29, 2019 18:38:19 GMT
Any thoughts? Would it have been a hung Parliament? Assume red wall to include NE, NW, Yorks and North Wales. Staffordshire and Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire were already weakened in 2017. Labour would have held on to 32 extra seats had they held onto all their seats in the NE, NW, Yorks and Wales. So the result would have been Con 333 seats, Lab 234 seats. A Conservative overall majority of 16. |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 29, 2019 22:49:19 GMT
If it had been up to people earning 70000k+ we would have had a hung Parliament according to you gov,s numbers.
con 40 -4 on result.
lab 31 -1 on result.
lib dem 20 +8 on result lib dems would have loved that number!
nats + others 9 -3 on result.
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 30, 2019 9:31:52 GMT
If it had been up to people earning 70000k+ we would have had a hung Parliament according to you gov,s numbers. con 40 -4 on result. lab 31 -1 on result. lib dem 20 +8 on result lib dems would have loved that number! nats + others 9 -3 on result. Vast majority of people I know who earn over £70k plus claimed to not vote Conservative this time. Even know several bankers who voted Labour for the first time. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 30, 2019 9:36:10 GMT
If it had been up to people earning 70000k+ we would have had a hung Parliament according to you gov,s numbers. con 40 -4 on result. lab 31 -1 on result. lib dem 20 +8 on result lib dems would have loved that number! nats + others 9 -3 on result. Vast majority of people I know who earn over £70k plus claimed to not vote Conservative this time. Even know several bankers who voted Labour for the first time. Would 40-31-20 have produced a hung parliament though? Of course limiting the electorate to those who earn 70k would have produced a very small electorate in some seats! |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 30, 2019 14:05:36 GMT
Vast majority of people I know who earn over £70k plus claimed to not vote Conservative this time. Even know several bankers who voted Labour for the first time. Would 40-31-20 have produced a hung parliament though? Of course limiting the electorate to those who earn 70k would have produced a very small electorate in some seats! UNS has the cons on 325 but add in tactical voting and a bigger swing to the lid dems among tory remain voters and your looking at 310/320 ish. |
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Post by edgbaston on Dec 30, 2019 17:27:51 GMT
My general sense on the forum is the 'red wall' was created and popularised by media marketers 3 months ago and psephologists should not take it seriously.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2019 18:29:03 GMT
Red wall sounds like such an Americanism
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 31, 2019 1:01:32 GMT
Red wall sounds like such an Americanism It's basically derived from the "blue wall" states that Clinton assumed she had in the bag in 2016. The concept works when talking about the Electoral College system, but not so well in a Parliamentary one. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 31, 2019 10:26:54 GMT
The really stupid thing is that a wall is between things, or keeps one thing out from the other side, or keeps something in. To make any sense the "red wall" would keep everything one side red, or stop all the SNP MPs in Scotland from getting through to Westminster. Call it 'Labour's red northern block', or 'industrial belt' or such, but not a 'wall' if you want to be taken seriously
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J.G.Harston
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Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 31, 2019 16:41:58 GMT
The really stupid thing is that a wall is between things, or keeps one thing out from the other side, or keeps something in. To make any sense the "red wall" would keep everything one side red, or stop all the SNP MPs in Scotland from getting through to Westminster. Call it 'Labour's red northern block', or 'industrial belt' or such, but not a 'wall' if you want to be taken seriously I think they called it a wall thinking in the Breakout sense:  |
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Post by johnhemming on Dec 31, 2019 17:32:22 GMT
the left would have been unable to move forwards to adulthood ( although the later is as yet conceptual) The problem is that the Labour Party is a coalition where different factions are in contest for ideological control. Now they have one member one vote it will be much harder for the more pragmatic non statist factions to provide the leader. What we really need is a different electoral system which enables the voters to vote positively for people they agree with rather than against those that they feel most threatened by. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 31, 2019 18:00:42 GMT
the left would have been unable to move forwards to adulthood ( although the later is as yet conceptual) The problem is that the Labour Party is a coalition where different factions are in contest for ideological control. Now they have one member one vote it will be much harder for the more pragmatic non statist factions to provide the leader. What we really need is a different electoral system which enables the voters to vote positively for people they agree with rather than against those that they feel most threatened by. As one of the unabashed left wingers I agree. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 1, 2020 10:20:00 GMT
The problem is that the Labour Party is a coalition where different factions are in contest for ideological control. Now they have one member one vote it will be much harder for the more pragmatic non statist factions to provide the leader. What we really need is a different electoral system which enables the voters to vote positively for people they agree with rather than against those that they feel most threatened by. As one of the unabashed left wingers I agree. I thought you were opposed to preferential voting systems? |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 1, 2020 11:12:58 GMT
As one of the unabashed left wingers I agree. I thought you were opposed to preferential voting systems? There are proportional systems which do not involve preferential voting and will enable people to vote for who they want, knowing their vote won't be "wasted" or requiring tactical voting |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 1, 2020 12:58:11 GMT
'Red Wall' or not something was afoot:-
Average swing in Con held seats - 4.7% (England only)
Average swing in Lab held seats - 4.5%
Average swing in seats changing hands - 8.3% - that must be worth at least 15 English seats.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 1, 2020 14:12:15 GMT
'Red Wall' or not something was afoot:- Average swing in Con held seats - 4.7% (England only) Average swing in Lab held seats - 4.5% Average swing in seats changing hands - 8.3% - that must be worth at least 15 English seats. So a particular demographic or a message that struck a chord with those particular voters? I wonder how many of the Con gains were actually target seats. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 1, 2020 19:34:03 GMT
'Red Wall' or not something was afoot:- Average swing in Con held seats - 4.7% (England only) Average swing in Lab held seats - 4.5% Average swing in seats changing hands - 8.3% - that must be worth at least 15 English seats. So a particular demographic or a message that struck a chord with those particular voters? I wonder how many of the Con gains were actually target seats. You did ask...I did a cluster analysis for English seats (bar Buckingham and Chorley) - Brexit vote (Nigel Marriott's estimates) v Wealth/Deprivation v % Muslims v population density. Some identifiable trends:- www.dropbox.com/s/nxfe2tih9ld06c6/2019%20k%3D30.ods?dl=0It's far from perfect although some clusters look too good to be true. |
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