Dec 2019 electorates

[evergreenadam]

Assuming 650 MPs how would the county allocations work on the Dec 2019 electorates? Would London gain or lose seats?

[Pete Whitehead]

The total electorate was 47,562,702 which gives an average of 73,173
London's electorate was 5,581,948 so on 650 equal seats that would be 76 - up 3 on currently though this doesn't account for differing quotas for Wales etc. On the current rules for 600 seats London would qualify for 70 seats.
The main gains but would be in inner-East and South London areas such as Newham, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. Areas with undersized seats include Westminster, Kensington, Chelsea & Fulham

[relique]

Dec 19, 2019 23:38:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The total electorate was 47,562,702 which gives an average of 73,173
London's electorate was 5,581,948 so on 650 equal seats that would be 76 - up 3 on currently though this doesn't account for differing quotas for Wales etc. On the current rules for 600 seats London would qualify for 70 seats.
The main gains but would be in inner-East and South London areas such as Newham, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. Areas with undersized seats include Westminster, Kensington, Chelsea & Fulham

I must say I'm surprised you have a greater electorate than France (47 173 000, from may). I wonder if it is a question of easier access to registration, citizenship, or just an older population.

[pepperminttea]

Dec 20, 2019 0:35:14 GMT relique said:

Dec 19, 2019 23:38:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The total electorate was 47,562,702 which gives an average of 73,173
London's electorate was 5,581,948 so on 650 equal seats that would be 76 - up 3 on currently though this doesn't account for differing quotas for Wales etc. On the current rules for 600 seats London would qualify for 70 seats.
The main gains but would be in inner-East and South London areas such as Newham, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. Areas with undersized seats include Westminster, Kensington, Chelsea & Fulham

I must say I'm surprised you have a greater electorate than France (47 173 000, from may). I wonder if it is a question of easier access to registration, citizenship, or just an older population.

Commonweath and Irish citizens are allowed to vote in general elections if they're a permanent resident. That may be the reason.

[Pete Whitehead]

There is additionally the issue (although this may also be the case in France) that people can be registered in more than one place and many (students for example) are, though they can legally only vote in one of them. Still those people are being counted twice as far as the national total goes (which also raises questions wrt apportionment when this is done on very tight electorate based quotas)

[lancastrian]

Dec 19, 2019 23:38:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The total electorate was 47,562,702 which gives an average of 73,173
London's electorate was 5,581,948 so on 650 equal seats that would be 76 - up 3 on currently though this doesn't account for differing quotas for Wales etc. On the current rules for 600 seats London would qualify for 70 seats.
The main gains but would be in inner-East and South London areas such as Newham, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth and Southwark. Areas with undersized seats include Westminster, Kensington, Chelsea & Fulham

Full regional figures:

Total 47,562,702

Scotland 4,053,056 (including 55317 in the two island constituencies)
Wales 2,319,826
N Ireland 1,293,971

England 39,895,849 (including Isle of Wight 113,021 )

East 4,495,896
E Mids 3,481,371
London 5,581,948
NE 1,946,969
NW 5,369,541
SE 6,628,249  (including Isle of Wight 113,021 )
SW 4,239,783
W Mids 4,194,011
Yorks+H 3,958,085

Orkney and Shetland, Western Isles, Isle of Wight total 168,338

If we kept 650 seats with four for the islands, that would give (England and Scotland excluding island seats):

England 542 (+10)
Scotland 54 (-3)
Wales 32 (-8)
Northern Ireland 18 (no change)
Islands 4 (+1)

For the English regions I make it

East 61 (+3)
E Mids 47 (+1)
London 76 (+3)
N East 27 (-2)
N West 73 (-2)
S East 89 (+6) excluding the Isle of Wight
S West 58 (+3)
W Mids 57 (-2)
Yorks+H 54 (nc)

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 20, 2019 1:09:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There is additionally the issue (although this may also be the case in France) that people can be registered in more than one place and many (students for example) are, though they can legally only vote in one of them. Still those people are being counted twice as far as the national total goes (which also raises questions wrt apportionment when this is done on very tight electorate based quotas)

That's the one thing that tips me slightly towards using the immediately preceeding census figures for apportionment, rather than the immediately preceeding general election - both of which are better than an arbitary 1st December preceeding the apportionment.

[evergreenadam]

Has anyone been able to do a list of the most oversized constituencies on the Dec 2019 figures, would be interesting to see whether many were near misses, especially in the south east.

[martinwhelton]

Dec 24, 2019 21:58:12 GMT evergreenadam said:

Has anyone been able to do a list of the most oversized constituencies on the Dec 2019 figures, would be interesting to see whether many were near misses, especially in the south east.

If you go to the 2019 General Election results on the Parliament website you can get all the electorates in the excel spreadsheet. The largest outside the Isle of Wight was Bristol West with 99,000 electors followed by West Ham.

[greenhert]

Excluding the Isle of Wight as many as 15 constituencies in England now have an electorate exceeding 90,000 voters. Conversely there are as many as eight constituencies in England whose electorate is below 60,000 voters, which makes their electorates smaller than those of many Welsh constituencies and most Scottish constituencies.

[ClevelandYorks]

Dec 27, 2019 1:13:36 GMT greenhert said:

Excluding the Isle of Wight as many as 15 constituencies in England now have an electorate exceeding 90,000 voters. Conversely there are as many as eight constituencies in England whose electorate is below 60,000 voters, which makes their electorates smaller than those of many Welsh constituencies and most Scottish constituencies.

Could you name them?

[John Chanin]

Dec 27, 2019 10:23:29 GMT ClevelandYorks said:

Dec 27, 2019 1:13:36 GMT greenhert said:

Excluding the Isle of Wight as many as 15 constituencies in England now have an electorate exceeding 90,000 voters. Conversely there are as many as eight constituencies in England whose electorate is below 60,000 voters, which makes their electorates smaller than those of many Welsh constituencies and most Scottish constituencies.

Could you name them?

The published figures (my concern about their provenance and accuracy has been expressed elsewhere) are:

Isle of Wight	113,021
Bristol West	99,253
West Ham	97,942
Milton Keynes South	96,343
Cambridgeshire NW	94,909
Sleaford & N Hykeham	94,761
Manchester Central	94,247
Bermondsey & Southwark	93,313
Hackney N & Stoke Newington	92,451
Poplar & Limehouse	91,760
Milton Keynes North	91,535
Leeds Central	90,971
Wantage	90.875
Northamptonshire South	90,840
Bedfordshire North East	90,679
Banbury	90,113
Sheffield Central	89,849
Bury St Edmunds	89,644
Ashford	89,550
Hackney S & Shoreditch	89,380
Camberwell & Peckham	89,042

You will note that there are 11 Conservative seats on this list, and 10 Labour seats.  It is no longer true that all large seats are conservative and all small seats are Labour.

[timrollpickering]

Dec 25, 2019 9:30:41 GMT martinwhelton said:

The largest outside the Isle of Wight was Bristol West with 99,000 electors followed by West Ham.

/rushes to change "the largest mainland constituency" in a feedback report.

When did Bristol West shoot up and what's the main cause?

[John Chanin]

And the smallest excluding Wales, and the Scottish Highlands.  You will note that more of these seats are now Conservative than Labour (9 to 7).

Stoke Central	55,424
Wirral West	55,550
Glasgow North	57,130
Wirral South	57,280
Blackpool South	57,688
Newcastle Central	57,845
Northampton North	59,265
Preston	59,672
Berwick on Tweed	59,939
Aldridge Brownhills	60,138
Hull West & Hessle	60,409
Inverclyde	60,622
Dudley South	60,731
Middlesbrough	60,759
Wolverhampton SW	60,895
Fife North East	60.905
Glasgow North East	61,075
Easington	61,182
Hexham	61,324
Workington	61,370

[timrollpickering]

Dec 27, 2019 10:41:23 GMT John Chanin said:

The published figures (my concern about their provenance and accuracy has been expressed elsewhere) are:

The West Ham figure looks about right (I'm away from my notes at the moment) and is almost identical to a back calculation from the figures on Newham's website, though you need to add in the 217 spoilt papers.

(For those wanting to the East Ham calculation as well, the missing figure is 174 spoilt papers.)

[John Chanin]

Here are the largest increases in published electorate since 2017.  You can assume that most of these are due to the vagaries of electoral registration departments rather than real population movements. A lot of them are student seats - I wonder if departing students who registered in 2017 have not been removed from the register?  

Sheffield Central	12,289
Hackney N & Stoke Newington	8,496
Nottingham South	8,307
Birmingham Selly Oak	8,295
Hackney S & Shoreditch	7,376
Vauxhall	6,740
Dulwich & West Norwood	6,716
Hendon	6,332
Banbury	6,295
Bristol West	6,267
Streatham	6,256
Bermondsey & Southwark	6,086
West Ham	5,699
Maldon	5,681
Northamptonshire South	5,084
Birmingham Ladywood	4,889
Glasgow Central	4,884
Cardiff Central	4,749
Exeter	4,714
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	4,571

[John Chanin]

And here is a list of those showing a decline since 2017.  Same comment applies about electoral registration "cleaning" the register, rather than actual population loss.  Stoke North ought to be on this list as well, but published data is wrong. 

Wolverhampton SE	-6945
Erith & Thamesmead	-4325
Bridgwater & W Somerset	-3967
Aldershot	-3588
Watford	-3148
Stoke Central	-2772
Faversham & Mid Kent	-2604
York	-2514
Oxford West & Abingdon	-2336
Hyndburn	-2200
Warwickshire North	-2006
Suffolk Central & Ipswich N	-1915
Montgomeryshire	-1758
West Bromwich East	-1722
Spelthorne	-1712
Gloucester	-1631
Rotherham	-1549
Stoke South	-1547
Halton	-1527
Huddersfield	-1508

It may be more interesting and meaningful to compare 2019 figures with 2010 when the current constituencies came into effect.  Remember these were based on electorates on the "cleansed" electoral register in December 2001 (not the General Election register for 2001).  I will post these when I have worked them out. 

[John Chanin]

Largest electorate changes from 2010 to 2019. 

Constituency	Electorate 2010	Electorate 2019	Change
Leeds Central	64,698	90,971	+26,273
Sheffield Central	69,519	89,849	+20,330
Hackney N & Stoke Newington	73,874	92,451	+18,577
Poplar & Limehouse	74,956	91,760	+16,804
Hackney S & Shoreditch	72,816	89,380	+16,564
Bristol West	82,728	99,253	+16,525
Bermondsey & Southwark	77,623	93,313	+15,690
Greenwich & Woolwich	65,489	79,997	+14,508
Vauxhall	74,811	88,647	+13,836
Devon East	73,109	86,841	+13,732
Deptford	67,058	80,617	+13,559
West Ham	85,313	97,942	+12,629
Bedfordshire North East	78,060	90,679	+12,619
Edinburgh North & Leith	69,204	81,336	+12,132
Nottingham South	67,441	79,485	+12,044
Ealing Central & Acton	63,489	75,510	+12,021
Dulwich & West Norwood	72,817	84,663	+11,846
Bedfordshire Mid	76,023	87,795	+11,772
Saffron Walden	76,035	87,017	+10,982
Slough	77,068	87,632	+10,564

There are 7 other seats with increases over 10,000.  These are almost all inner city seats. Some of it is population increase, but I suspect much of it is new registrations, by mainly young people, on political grounds, who didn't bother to register and vote before. Bedfordshire is a bit strange - I don't think of Ampthill, Biggleswade and Sandy as being growth hotspots, although the constituencies contain some outer suburbs of Bedford, Luton, and Milton Keynes. 

[John Chanin]

Largest electorate decreases from 2010.  

Constituency	Electorate 2010	Electorate 2019	Change
Oxford West & Abingdon	86,458	76,953	-9505
Hull West & Hessle	69,017	60,409	-8608
Dorset Mid & North Poole	72,647	65,426	-7221
Stoke Central*	60,995	55,424	-5571
Blackpool South	63,025	57,688	-5337
Northampton North	64,230	59,265	-4965
Northampton South	66,923	62,172	-4751
Erith & Thamesmead	69,918	65,399	-4519
Middlesbrough	65,148	60,759	-4389
Swansea West	61,334	57,078	-4256
Oxford East	81,886	77,947	-3939
Doncaster Central	75,207	71,389	-3818
Stoke North*	72,052	68,292	-3760
Wythenshawe & Sale East	79,923	76,313	-3610
Stoke South*	68,031	64,499	-3532
Redditch	68,550	65,391	-3159
Darlington	69,352	66,395	-2957
Mansfield	80,069	77,131	-2938
Ipswich	78,371	75,525	-2846
Ceredigion	59,043	56,250	-2793

* Stoke figures are doubtful, but this does look right for one of our most depressed cities. 

This consists partly of the vagaries of electoral registration - Oxford and Northampton obviously - but mostly I think of genuine population decreases. There are another 42 seats with decreases of more than 1000, and 104 in total with a decrease (including Dumfries & Galloway with a decrease of 1)

[evergreenadam]

Dec 27, 2019 11:27:58 GMT John Chanin said:

Here are the largest increases in published electorate since 2017.  You can assume that most of these are due to the vagaries of electoral registration departments rather than real population movements. A lot of them are student seats - I wonder if departing students who registered in 2017 have not been removed from the register?  

Sheffield Central	12,289
Hackney N & Stoke Newington	8,496
Nottingham South	8,307
Birmingham Selly Oak	8,295
Hackney S & Shoreditch	7,376
Vauxhall	6,740
Dulwich & West Norwood	6,716
Hendon	6,332
Banbury	6,295
Bristol West	6,267
Streatham	6,256
Bermondsey & Southwark	6,086
West Ham	5,699
Maldon	5,681
Northamptonshire South	5,084
Birmingham Ladywood	4,889
Glasgow Central	4,884
Cardiff Central	4,749
Exeter	4,714
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	4,571

Or that students are now better enrolled following sharp falls in registration in student heavy constituencies immediately after the introduction of Individual Voter Registration?